Human-caused Indo-Pacific warm pool expansion

Weller, Evan; Min, Seung‐Ki; Cai, Wenju; Zwiers, Francis W.; Kim, Yeon-Hee; Lee, Dong-Hyun

doi:10.1126/sciadv.1501719

Cited by 102 publications

(102 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…Niño4 time series are also characterized by larger year-to-year variability than BMI time series. Yet, the BMI displays a stronger long-term warming trend since the 1950s (table 1), consistent with previous studies (Rao et al 2012, Roxy et al 2014, Weller et al 2016a. Model results show that ALL_P1 and GHG_P1 simulations have increasing trends in both regions whereas on average, NAT_P1 and ALL_P0 runs have very weak or almost no trends.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 89%

“…In addition, the long-term increase in the tropical Indian Ocean SST affects the Northern Hemisphere winter-time extra-tropical climate, particularly over North America and Europe (Hoerling et al 2004). Furthermore, the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean are connected through what is known as an atmospheric bridge (Klein et al 1999, Luo et al 2012 and the combined SST influence of the two basins on the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation and precipitation has been identified (He and Zhou 2015, Ueda et al 2015, Weller et al 2016a. Therefore, joint attribution of two regional SST extremes is important to better predict their teleconnection impacts on the extratropics as the climate impacts are strengthened when they co-occur (Meyers et al 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Attribution of the 2015 record high sea surface temperatures over the central equatorial Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean

Park

Min

Yeh

et al. 2017

Environ. Res. Lett.

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This study assessed the anthropogenic contribution to the 2015 record-breaking high sea surface temperatures (SSTs) observed in the central equatorial Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean. Considering a close link between extreme warm events in these regions, we conducted a joint attribution analysis using a fraction of attributable risk approach. Probability of occurrence of such extreme anomalies and long-term trends for the two oceanic regions were compared between CMIP5 multi-model simulations with and without anthropogenic forcing. Results show that the excessive warming in both regions is well beyond the range of natural variability and robustly attributable to human activities due to greenhouse gas increase. We further explored associated mechanisms including the Bjerknes feedback and background anthropogenic warming. It is concluded that background warming was the main contribution to the 2015 extreme SST event over the central equatorial Pacific Ocean on a developing El Niño condition, which in turn induced the extreme SST event over the tropical Indian Ocean through the atmospheric bridge effect.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 89%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Attribution of the 2015 record high sea surface temperatures over the central equatorial Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean

Park

Min

Yeh

et al. 2017

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…Previous studies have focused on investigations of the warm pool variabilities on multiple time scales and the related atmospheric and oceanic processes [13][14][15][16][17][18]. For instance, surface heat flux, SST, 20 • C isotherm depth, upper ocean heat content, sea surface salinity, warm pool centroids and edges and many other properties of the warm pool were constantly studied [3,4,[19][20][21].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal and Interannual Variability of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool and its Associated Climate Factors Based on Remote Sensing

et al. 2020

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With satellite observed Sea Surface Temperature (SST) accumulated for multiple decades, multi-time scale variabilities of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool are examined and contrasted in this study by separating it into the Indian Ocean sector and the Pacific Ocean sector. Surface size, zonal center, meridional center, maximum SST and mean SST as the practical warm pool properties are chosen to investigate the warm pool variations for the period 1982–2018. On the seasonal time scale, the oscillation of the Indian Warm Pool is found much more vigorous than the Pacific Warm Pool on size and intensity, yet the interannual variabilities of the Indian Warm Pool and the Pacific Warm Pool are comparable. The Indian Warm Pool has weak interannual variations (3–5 years) and the Pacific Warm Pool has mighty interdecadal variations. The size, zonal movement and mean SST of the Indian Ocean Warm Pool (IW) are more accurate to depict the seasonal variability, and for the Pacific Ocean Warm Pool (PW), the size, zonal and meridional movements and maximum SST are more suitable. On the interannual scale, except for the meridional movements, all the other properties of the same basin have similar interannual variation signals. Following the correlation analysis, it turns out that the Indian Ocean basin-wide index (IOBW) is the most important contributor to the variabilities of both sectors. Lead-lag correlation results show that variation of the Pacific Ocean Warm Pool leads the IOBW and variation of the Indian Ocean Warm Pool is synchronous with the IOBW. This indicates that both sectors of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool are significantly correlated with basin-wide warming or cooling.

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“…may help in forecasting the onset and duration of the dry season over the Maritime Continent. Consequently, forecasting TC activity can help improve, at least partially, the forecasts for all of the processes associated with the Maritime Continent circulation (55)(56)(57)(58)(59)(60).…”

Section: Implications For the Forecast Of The Dry Season Onsetmentioning

confidence: 99%

The typhoon-induced drying of the Maritime Continent

Scoccimarro

Gualdi

Bellucci

et al. 2020

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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The Maritime Continent plays a role in the global circulation pattern, due to the energy released by convective condensation over the region which influences the global atmospheric circulation. We demonstrate that tropical cyclones contribute to drying the Maritime Continent atmosphere, influencing the definition of the onset of the dry season. The process was investigated using observational data and reanalysis. Our findings were confirmed by numerical experiments using low-and high-resolution versions of the CMCC-CM2 General Circulation Model contributing to the HighResMIP CMIP6 effort. typhoon | maritime continent | precipitation | tropical cyclone S everal studies have analyzed the effects of mean climate conditions and climate change on tropical cyclone (TC) activity (1-11). There is increasing attention to the impact of TCs on the mean climate through their interaction with the ocean (12-16) and with the surrounding atmospheric environment. TCinduced stationary Rossby waves (17) are likely responsible for the interaction with the atmospheric environment, due to the fact that they excite extratropical wave trains affecting higher latitudes (18)(19)(20)(21)(22). Also, TC-associated water transport has a role in feeding extreme precipitation events in the extratropics (23,24).In this paper, we highlight the role of TCs as important players within Earth's climate system (25). We evaluated the drying effect that TCs have on certain portions of the equatorial band, due to induced zonal wind anomalies. We found that a net eastward water transport anomaly in the equatorial region of the west North Pacific (WNP), induced by TCs developing in the basin, may be responsible for a significant moisture flux divergence over the Maritime Continent, thus reducing the local precipitation during the onset of the dry season. We investigated this process using Japanese 55-y Reanalysis (JRA-55) (26) and conducted numerical experiments based on low-and highresolution versions of the Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici Climate Model 2 (CMCC-CM2) General Circulation Model (GCM) (16,27,28). Our findings suggest that forecasting TC activity in the WNP might also help in predicting the onset of the dry season over the Maritime Continent. This is based on the role of TCs in modulating the moisture flux over the region. TC Representation in Reanalysis and Climate ModelsClimate modeling provides a realistic representation of TCs activity in terms of both their geographical density and intensity. GCMs (16,29,30) are now able to represent the most intense hurricanes and typhoons, mainly due to the horizontal resolutionequal or higher than 25 km-in their atmospheric component. Long reanalyses (such as JRA-55 used in the present work), based on GCMs, provide a considerable amount of climate information associated with the observed TCs (31, 32) at a high spatial and temporal resolution (a few hours). This detailed information associated with observed TCs, together with observations, goes back to 1979 and earlier, with suffici...

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Human-caused Indo-Pacific warm pool expansion

Abstract: The recent observed expansion of the Indo-Pacific warm pool is robustly attributed to anthropogenic greenhouse gas increases.

Cited by 102 publications

References 43 publications

Attribution of the 2015 record high sea surface temperatures over the central equatorial Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean

Attribution of the 2015 record high sea surface temperatures over the central equatorial Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean

Seasonal and Interannual Variability of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool and its Associated Climate Factors Based on Remote Sensing

The typhoon-induced drying of the Maritime Continent

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