This paper investigates the effect of Oscar nominations and awards on movies’ financial success by estimating the impact on weekly returns and on movies’ survival time. Our findings suggest that nominations for Oscars generate substantial extra revenues, while winning an award contributes only little to this extra rent. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2005Academy Awards, blockbusters, motion pictures, superstars,

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Many instrumental variable (IV) regressions include control variables to justify(conditional) independence of the instrument and the potential outcomes. The plausibility of conditional IV independence crucially depends on the timing when the control variables are determined. This paper systemically works through different IV models and discusses the (conditions for the) satisfaction of conditional IV independence when controlling for covariates measured (a) prior to the instrument, (b) after the treatment, or (c) both. To illustrate these identification issues, we consider an empirical application using the Vietnam War draft risk as instrument either for veteran status or education to estimate the effects of these variables on labor market and health outcomes.

It is commonly asserted that the sub-Saharan African HIV/AIDS epidemic is predominantly due to heterosexual transmission. However, recent re-examination of the available evidence strongly suggests that unsafe health care is the more likely vector. The present report adds to the evidence for health-care transmission by showing that Kenyan women who received prophylactic tetanus toxoid injections during pregnancy are 1.89 times (95% confidence interval [CI]:1.03-3.47) more likely to be HIV-1 seropositive than women who did not receive this vaccination. In contrast, recent sexual behaviour (condom use, number of partners) was not related to HIV status. The findings are unconfounded by reverse causality (all injections were purely prophylactic rather than for treatment of any HIV-related illnesses, and none of the women reported knowing that she was HIV seropositive). Focus on a specific injection may have improved participant recall. The results are consistent with health care being a very important vector for HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. It is recommended that there be a reallocation of resources to address healthcare transmission of HIV/AIDS.

The origin of the obesity epidemic in developing countries is still poorly understood. It has been prominently argued that economic development provides a natural interpretation of the growth in obesity. This paper tests the main aggregated predictions of the theoretical framework to analyze obesity. Average body weight and health inequality should be associated with economic development. Both hypotheses are confirmed: we find higher average female body weight in economically more advanced countries. In relatively nondeveloped countries, obesity is a phenomenon of the socioeconomic elite. With economic development, obesity shifts toward individuals with lower socioeconomic status.

This paper proposes a difference-in-differences approach for disentangling a total treatment effect on some outcome into a direct impact as well as an indirect effect operating through a binary intermediate variable -or mediator -within strata defined upon how the mediator reacts to the treatment. We show under which assumptions the direct effects on the always and never takers, whose mediator is not affected by the treatment, as well as the direct and indirect effects on the compliers, whose mediator reacts to the treatment, are identified. We provide an empirical application based on the Vietnam draft lottery. The results suggest that a high draft risk due to the lottery leads to a relative increase in the support for the Republican Party and that this increase is mostly driven by those complying with the lottery outcome.

Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may SummaryThe Demographic and Health Surveys from Lesotho, Zimbabwe, and Malawi reveal that a significant proportion of HIV infections in adolescent women occurred in women who claim to be virgin. Two possible conclusions arise from this observation: adolescent women misreport sexual status or non-sexual risk is more relevant than previously asserted. This paper uses a nonparametric model to estimate the proportion of HIV infections associated with sexual activity under different assumptions on data accuracy. It shows that there is an inverse relation between data accuracy and importance of sexual HIV transmission. If all adolescent women in the considered sub-sample correctly report sexual activity, 70% of HIV infections cannot be attributed to sexual HIV transmission. The model predicts that more than 95% of HIV infections are due to sexual HIV infections, if a substantial proportion of self-reported virgins (between 40 and 90%) misreport sexual status.JEL code: C14, I10, I12