This paper investigates the effect of Oscar nominations and awards on movies’ financial success by estimating the impact on weekly returns and on movies’ survival time. Our findings suggest that nominations for Oscars generate substantial extra revenues, while winning an award contributes only little to this extra rent. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2005Academy Awards, blockbusters, motion pictures, superstars,
Many instrumental variable (IV) regressions include control variables to justify(conditional) independence of the instrument and the potential outcomes. The plausibility of conditional IV independence crucially depends on the timing when the control variables are determined. This paper systemically works through different IV models and discusses the (conditions for the) satisfaction of conditional IV independence when controlling for covariates measured (a) prior to the instrument, (b) after the treatment, or (c) both. To illustrate these identification issues, we consider an empirical application using the Vietnam War draft risk as instrument either for veteran status or education to estimate the effects of these variables on labor market and health outcomes.
It is commonly asserted that the sub-Saharan African HIV/AIDS epidemic is predominantly due to heterosexual transmission. However, recent re-examination of the available evidence strongly suggests that unsafe health care is the more likely vector. The present report adds to the evidence for health-care transmission by showing that Kenyan women who received prophylactic tetanus toxoid injections during pregnancy are 1.89 times (95% confidence interval [CI]:1.03-3.47) more likely to be HIV-1 seropositive than women who did not receive this vaccination. In contrast, recent sexual behaviour (condom use, number of partners) was not related to HIV status. The findings are unconfounded by reverse causality (all injections were purely prophylactic rather than for treatment of any HIV-related illnesses, and none of the women reported knowing that she was HIV seropositive). Focus on a specific injection may have improved participant recall. The results are consistent with health care being a very important vector for HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. It is recommended that there be a reallocation of resources to address healthcare transmission of HIV/AIDS.
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