Sea-level rise (SLR) is predicted to elevate water depths above coral reefs and to increase coastal wave exposure as ecological degradation limits vertical reef growth, but projections lack data on interactions between local rates of reef growth and sea level rise. Here we calculate the vertical growth potential of more than 200 tropical western Atlantic and Indian Ocean reefs, and compare these against recent and projected rates of SLR under different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Although many reefs retain accretion rates close to recent SLR trends, few will have the capacity to track SLR projections under RCP4.5 scenarios without sustained ecological recovery, and under RCP8.5 scenarios most reefs are predicted to experience mean water depth increases of more than 0.5 m by 2100. Coral cover strongly predicts reef capacity to track SLR, but threshold cover levels that will be necessary to prevent submergence are well above those observed on most reefs. Urgent action is thus needed to mitigate climate, sea-level and future ecological changes in order to limit the magnitude of future reef submergence.

Caribbean reef corals have experienced unprecedented declines from climate change, anthropogenic stressors and infectious diseases in recent decades. Since 2014, a highly lethal, new disease, called stony coral tissue loss disease, has impacted many reef-coral species in Florida. During the summer of 2018, we noticed an anomalously high disease prevalence affecting different coral species in the northern portion of the Mexican Caribbean. We assessed the severity of this outbreak in 2018/2019 using the AGRRA coral protocol to survey 82 reef sites across the Mexican Caribbean. Then, using a subset of 14 sites, we detailed information from before the outbreak (2016/2017) to explore the consequences of the disease on the condition and composition of coral communities. Our findings show that the disease outbreak has already spread across the entire region by affecting similar species (with similar disease patterns) to those previously described for Florida. However, we observed a great variability in prevalence and tissue mortality that was not attributable to any geographical gradient. Using long-term data, we determined that there is no evidence of such high coral disease prevalence anywhere in the region before 2018, which suggests that the entire Mexican Caribbean was afflicted by the disease within a few months. The analysis of sites that contained pre-outbreak information showed that this event considerably increased coral mortality and severely changed the structure of coral communities in the region. Given the high prevalence and lethality of this disease, and the high number of susceptible species, we encourage reef researchers, managers and stakeholders across the Western Atlantic to accord it the highest priority for the near future.

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Coral reefs in the wider Caribbean declined in hard coral cover by ~80% since the 1970s, but spatiotemporal analyses for sub-regions are lacking. Here, we explored benthic change patterns in the Mexican Caribbean reefs through meta-analysis between 1978 and 2016 including 125 coral reef sites. Findings revealed that hard coral cover decreased from ~26% in the 1970s to 16% in 2016, whereas macroalgae cover increased to ~30% in 2016. Both groups showed high spatiotemporal variability. Hard coral cover declined in total by 12% from 1978 to 2004 but increased again by 5% between 2005 and 2016 indicating some coral recovery after the 2005 mass bleaching event and hurricane impacts. In 2016, more than 80% of studied reefs were dominated by macroalgae, while only 15% were dominated by hard corals. This stands in contrast to 1978 when all reef sites surveyed were dominated by hard corals. This study is among the first within the Caribbean region that reports local recovery in coral cover in the caribbean, while other caribbean reefs have failed to recover. Most Mexican caribbean coral reefs are now no longer dominated by hard corals. in order to prevent further reef degradation, viable and reliable conservation alternatives are required. Monitoring change in coral reef ecosystems is essential in an era when humanity is having a widespread and long-term impact on nature. Current anthropogenic climate change and local stressors (such as overfishing and a mix of pollution and sedimentation from coastal development 1) place coral reefs as the most endangered ecosystems on earth 2. Rapid reversals in their health have been reported globally 3 , including reefs from the Caribbean region, where declines of the live hard coral cover of ~80% between 1975 and 2000 have been documented 4-6. In the late 1970s, entire populations of reef-building coral species (i.e. Acropora palmata and Acropora cervicornis) collapsed as a result of the white-band disease 7. Furthermore, the mass mortality of black sea urchins (Diadema antillarum), overfishing and eutrophication 8 have resulted in a proliferation of more opportunistic, fast-growing organisms such as (macro)algae that outcompete reef-building corals 8-11. As a result, many Caribbean benthic coral reef communities changed drastically from low coral cover to persistent states of high cover (macro)algae in the process of so-called phase shifts 11-15. Efforts to mitigate or reverse phase shifts and reef degradation in the Caribbean include the development of new coral reef monitoring and managing strategies 16-18. Monitoring efforts of Caribbean reefs began in the late 1970s at various reef locations for short durations 19. It was until 1980 when coral reef monitoring programs first began for some countries due to the evident reef degradation and increasing threats 19. In the Mesoamerican Reef System (MAR), the monitoring officially began in 2005 with the Healthy Reefs for Healthy People Initiative 20. The MAR is recognized by the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) as one of 200 global priority ec...

Diseases are major drivers of the deterioration of coral reefs and are linked to major declines in coral abundance, reef functionality, and reef-related ecosystems services. An outbreak of a new disease is currently rampaging through the populations of the remaining reef-building corals across the Caribbean region. The outbreak was first reported in Florida in 2014 and reached the northern Mesoamerican Reef by summer 2018, where it spread across the ~450-km reef system in only a few months. Rapid spread was generalized across all sites and mortality rates ranged from 94% to <10% among the 21 afflicted coral species. Most species of the family Meandrinadae (maze corals) and subfamily Faviinae (brain corals) sustained losses >50%. This single event further modified the coral communities across the region by increasing the relative dominance of weedy corals and reducing reef functionality, both in terms of functional diversity and calcium carbonate production. This emergent disease is likely to become the most lethal disturbance ever recorded in the Caribbean, and it will likely result in the onset of a new functional regime where key reef-building and complex branching acroporids, an apparently unaffected genus that underwent severe population declines decades ago and retained low population levels, will once again become conspicuous structural features in reef systems with yet even lower levels of physical functionality.

In the Caribbean, disease outbreaks have emerged as significant drivers of coral mortality. Stony Coral Tissue Loss Disease (SCTLD) is a novel white plague-type disease that was first reported off the Florida coast in 2014. This disease affects &gt;20 coral species and is spreading rapidly throughout the Caribbean. In December 2018, SCTLD reached southwestern (SW) Cozumel, one of the healthiest reef systems in the Caribbean. In this study, we integrate data from multiple survey protocols conducted between July 2018 and April 2020 to track the progression of the outbreak in SW Cozumel and to quantify the impacts of SCTLD on coral communities and the benthic composition of reefs. Given that the SCTLD outbreak coincided with a period of prolonged thermal stress that concluded in widespread coral bleaching in autumn 2019, we also investigated whether this event further exacerbated coral mortality. Our findings show that SCTLD spread throughout SW Cozumel in only 2 months and reached a peak after only 5 months. By the summer of 2019, most of the afflicted corals were already dead. Species of the families Meandrinidae, Faviinae, and Montastraeidae showed 33–95% mortality. The widespread coral die-off caused an overall loss of 46% in coral cover followed by a rapid increase of algae cover across all surveyed reefs that persisted until at least April 2020. In November 2019, more than 15% of surveyed coral colonies were bleached. However, we did not find that bleaching further increased coral mortality at either the colony or the community level, which suggests that the coral communities were able to recover from this event despite still being affected by the disease. In conclusion, SCTLD is radically changing the ecology of coral reefs by decimating the populations of several key reef-builders and reconfiguring the benthic assemblages. The actions needed to restore coral populations have to be accompanied by stringent controls related to the effects of climate change, coastal development, and wastewater treatment to improve coral conditions and ecosystem resilience.

Caribbean reef corals have experienced unprecedented declines from climate change, anthropogenic stressors and infectious diseases in recent decades. Since 2014 a highly lethal, new disease, called stony coral tissue loss disease (SCTLD), has impacted many species in Florida. During the summer of 2018 we noticed an anomalously high disease prevalence affecting different coral species in the northern portion of the Mexican Caribbean. We assessed the severity of this outbreak in 2018/2019 using the AGRRA coral protocol to survey 82 reef sites across the Mexican Caribbean. Then, using a subset of 14 sites we detailed information from before the outbreak (2016/2017) to explore the consequences of the disease on the condition and composition of coral communities. Our findings show that the disease outbreak has already spread across the entire region, affecting similar species (with similar disease patterns) to those previously described for Florida. However, we observed a great variability in prevalence and tissue mortality that was not attributable to any geographical gradient. Using long-term data, we determined that there is no evidence of such high coral disease prevalence anywhere in the region before 2018, which suggests that the entire Mexican Caribbean (~450 km) was afflicted by the disease within a few months. The analysis of sites that contained pre-outbreak information showed that this event considerably increased coral mortality and severely changed the structure of coral communities in the region. Given the high prevalence and lethality of this disease, and the high number of susceptible species, we encourage reef researchers, managers and stakeholders across the Western Atlantic to accord it the highest priority for the near future.

No abstract