Coral reefs in the wider Caribbean declined in hard coral cover by ~80% since the 1970s, but spatiotemporal analyses for sub-regions are lacking. Here, we explored benthic change patterns in the Mexican Caribbean reefs through meta-analysis between 1978 and 2016 including 125 coral reef sites. Findings revealed that hard coral cover decreased from ~26% in the 1970s to 16% in 2016, whereas macroalgae cover increased to ~30% in 2016. Both groups showed high spatiotemporal variability. Hard coral cover declined in total by 12% from 1978 to 2004 but increased again by 5% between 2005 and 2016 indicating some coral recovery after the 2005 mass bleaching event and hurricane impacts. In 2016, more than 80% of studied reefs were dominated by macroalgae, while only 15% were dominated by hard corals. This stands in contrast to 1978 when all reef sites surveyed were dominated by hard corals. This study is among the first within the Caribbean region that reports local recovery in coral cover in the caribbean, while other caribbean reefs have failed to recover. Most Mexican caribbean coral reefs are now no longer dominated by hard corals. in order to prevent further reef degradation, viable and reliable conservation alternatives are required. Monitoring change in coral reef ecosystems is essential in an era when humanity is having a widespread and long-term impact on nature. Current anthropogenic climate change and local stressors (such as overfishing and a mix of pollution and sedimentation from coastal development 1) place coral reefs as the most endangered ecosystems on earth 2. Rapid reversals in their health have been reported globally 3 , including reefs from the Caribbean region, where declines of the live hard coral cover of ~80% between 1975 and 2000 have been documented 4-6. In the late 1970s, entire populations of reef-building coral species (i.e. Acropora palmata and Acropora cervicornis) collapsed as a result of the white-band disease 7. Furthermore, the mass mortality of black sea urchins (Diadema antillarum), overfishing and eutrophication 8 have resulted in a proliferation of more opportunistic, fast-growing organisms such as (macro)algae that outcompete reef-building corals 8-11. As a result, many Caribbean benthic coral reef communities changed drastically from low coral cover to persistent states of high cover (macro)algae in the process of so-called phase shifts 11-15. Efforts to mitigate or reverse phase shifts and reef degradation in the Caribbean include the development of new coral reef monitoring and managing strategies 16-18. Monitoring efforts of Caribbean reefs began in the late 1970s at various reef locations for short durations 19. It was until 1980 when coral reef monitoring programs first began for some countries due to the evident reef degradation and increasing threats 19. In the Mesoamerican Reef System (MAR), the monitoring officially began in 2005 with the Healthy Reefs for Healthy People Initiative 20. The MAR is recognized by the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) as one of 200 global priority ec...

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In 2005, an extreme heatwave hit the Wider Caribbean, followed by 13 hurricanes (including hurricanes Emily and Wilma) that caused significant loss in hard coral cover. However, the drivers of the potential recovery are yet to be fully understood. Based on recent findings in the literature of coral cover recovery in the Mexican Caribbean after the mass bleaching event and associated hurricanes in 2005, this study analyzed, through random-effects meta-analysis, the hard coral and macroalgae benthic development and potential drivers of change between 2005 and 2016 in the Mexican Caribbean. Therefore, we tested the relative effect of sea surface temperature (SST), chlorophyll-a water concentration, coastal human population development, reef distance to shore, and geographical location on both hard coral and macroalgae cover over time. Findings revealed increases of both hard coral (by 6%) and algae cover (by ca. 14%, i.e., almost three times the increase of corals) over 12 years. Although our findings confirm the partial coral recovery after the 2005 Caribbean mass coral mortality event, they also indicate rapid colonization of algae across the region. Surprisingly, only SST correlated negatively with changes in coral cover. Contrary to expectations, there was a significantly greater algae cover increase in the Central section of the Mexican Caribbean, which is characterized by a low population density. However, a constant discharge of nutrient-rich freshwater may have facilitated algae growth there. This study reports partial regional reef recovery, but it also indicates that local factors, particularly eutrophication, facilitate algae growth at a speed that is much faster than coral recovery.

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