No abstract

No abstract

This paper discusses the effects of sectoral structure on the long run macroeconomic inventory behaviour of national economies. Data on fifteen OECD countries are included in the analysis, which is based on correlation and cluster analysis methodologies. The study is part of a long-term research project exploring factors influencing the inventory behaviour of national economies.First, we introduce some basic characteristics of macroeconomic inventory formation in the fifteen OECD countries. We argue that our previous results on the existence of specific characteristic features of macroeconomic inventory investment are justified, so it makes sense to study the factors influencing those features. We then examine the contribution of various sectors to the production of Gross Value Added in the countries involved and the relationship between sectoral structure and inventory intensity (annual inventory change /Gross Value Added). We find that the high share of agriculture and manufacturing increases inventory intensity, that the increasing share of services has a negative effect and that the role of construction and trade is not obvious. The relatively low stability of the statistical results warns us to be cautious with our judgements. Further, case-by-case analysis would be required to obtain more solid results.

No abstract

Background: The area of pension expectations in Hungary is barely researched. However, the importance of adequate financial literacy and self-provision is becoming obvious at the economic, the decision-making, and the individual level.Objectives: Our research is conducted to investigate state pension expectations and certain aspects of financial literacy of the young generation, and to find a behavioral explanation for their pessimistic attitude.Methods/Approach: Using a 14-question questionnaire, we collected answers from Hungarian financially educated, young people. Two hypotheses were investigated by the Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Besides, a comparative analysis was conducted to connect the survey results with the ten instincts published by Hans Rosling in his book ‘Factfulness’.Results: The outcomes are in harmony with prior expectations, i.e. i) students in finance major are aware of the connection between a longer working period and a higher retirement income; and ii) despite the unisex pension scheme there are gender differences in the expected pension age. In the comparative analysis with ‘Factfulness’, we identified five instincts that lie behind the general pessimism of respondents.Conclusions: State pension expectations of the Hungarian young generation are overly pessimistic, the same attitude being found in international literature, as well. Pessimistic expectations can be explained using some of the ten instincts by Rosling.

No abstract

Kovács erzsébet-rétallér orsolya-véKás Péter modellpontok szerepe a nyugdíj-hatásvizsgálatban A mikroszimulációs nyugdíjmodell elkészítésekor az adatok körének meghatározása is lényeges kérdés. Rendelkezésünkre állt az Országos Nyugdíjbiztosítási Főigazgatóság teljes adminisztratív adatállománya. A nyugdíjmodellezés, a fenntarthatósági számítások elvégzése hosszú távra történik, és a teljes népességet érinti. A jogosultságszerzők és az ellátottak nagy száma, valamint a hosszú időtáv miatti jelentős számításigényt csökkenheti, ha a mikroszimuláció egyedi adatok helyett embercsoportokra, úgynevezett modellpontokra készül. A cikk a módszertani megfontolások ismertetése mellett bemutatja a modellpontok előállításának lépéseit, a népszámlálási adatokkal történő egybevetés nehézségeit, végül magukat az előállított modellpontokat. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: C53, H55.

No abstract