The Turkish Straits comprising the Strait of Canakkale, the Strait of Istanbul and the Sea of Marmara are unique in many respects. All dangers and obstacles characteristic of narrow waterways are present and acute in this critical sea lane. This research reveals the simulation of Canakkale (Dardanelle) Strait under different traffic conditions and identifies risky areas. The results of this simulation show that an increase of 25% in the existing traffic grows 43 times in the number of waiting ships (from 1.663 to 73.73), whereas waiting time increases 29 times (from 24.267 to 737.07). As a result of simulations and risk analysis, it is found that Nara turning point is the bottleneck point of the strait due to its topographic structure and the current system.
Marmara is a small inland sea in Turkey, connected to the Black Sea by the Istanbul Strait (Bosporus) and to the Aegean Sea by the Canakkale Strait (Dardanelles), separating the continents of Europe and Asia; area 11,140 square km/4,300 square mi. In parts it reaches depths of over 1,200 m/3,936 ft. International importance of the Sea of Marmara stands in the forefront even though it is an inland sea of Turkey and it deals with increasing ecological problems for the last 50 years. The Pollution in the Sea of Marmara which threatens all living species cause dramatic falling in fishing potential. Increase in the volume of maritime traffic on the Strait and the Sea of Marmara have increased the risk of the maritime accidents over the years and since 1948 the number of ship accidents have been recorded as around 700. Furthermore, being on the transportation way of hazardous and dangerous materials, pose environmental and safety hazards for the Bosphorus Strait and the Marmara Sea with the surrounding residential areas. The increasing sea traffic also causes considerable congestion on the northern entrance of the Bosphorus Strait. Increase in the volume of maritime traffic on the Bosphorus and Marmara Sea heightens the risk of maritime accidents.
In the present work, the risky region of Marmara Sea is chosen for simulation studies. It is assumed that 1000 tonnes of medium crude oil is spilled in the aftermath of a tanker accident. The distribution of oil spill is then determined with respect to time and space by considering 2 different wind directions and scale. The simulation code GNOME™ version 1.2.7 is utilized to generate the oil spill scenarios. As a result of these runs, spillage areas were identified as risky areas and necessary actions to minimize the effect of spill were discussed in the Marmara Sea.
Investigation on maritime accidents is a very important tool in identifying human factor-related problems. This study examines the causes of accidents, in particular the reasons for the grounding of container ships. These are analysed and evaluation according to the contribution rate using the Monte Carlo simulation. The OpenFTA program is used to run the simulation. The study data are obtained from 46 accident reports from 1993 to 2011. The data were prepared by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) Global Integrated Shipping Information System (GISIS). The GISIS is one of the organizations that investigate reported accidents in an international framework and in national shipping companies. The Monte Carlo simulation determined a total of 23.96% human error mental problems, 26.04% physical problems, 38.58% voyage management errors, and 11.42% team management error causes. Consequently, 50% of the human error is attributable to human performance disorders, while 50% team failure has been found.
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