Southern Africa is the region worst affected by HIV in the world and accounts for one third of the global burden of HIV. Achieving the UNAIDS 90-90-90 target by 2020 and ending the AIDS epidemic by 2030 depend on success in this region. We review epidemiological trends in each country in southern Africa with respect to the prevalence, incidence, mortality, coverage of anti-retroviral therapy (ART) and TB notification rates, to better understand progress in controlling HIV and TB and to determine what needs to be done to reach the UNAIDS targets. Significant progress has been made in controlling HIV. In all countries in the region, the prevalence of HIV in people not on ART, the incidence of HIV, AIDS-related mortality and, in most countries, TB notification rates, are falling. In some countries, the risk of infection began to fall before biomedical interventions such as ART became widely available as a result of effective prevention measures or people's awareness of, and response to, the epidemic but the reasons for these declines remain uncertain. Some countries have achieved better levels of ART coverage than others, but all are in a position to reach the 2020 and 2030 targets if they accelerate the roll-out of ART and of targeted prevention efforts. Achieving the HIV treatment targets will further reduce the incidence of HIV-related TB, but efforts to control TB in HIV-negative people must be improved and strengthened.

Behavioral surveillance surveys have been carried among military conscripts, in Brazil, since 1996. This paper presents the results of the 2007 survey and compares actual findings with those obtained in previous studies carried out in the period 1999-2002. The conscripts were selected with a two stage sampling stratified by geographical region. The study included a self-reported questionnaire and blood collection for HIV and syphilis testing. Data from 35,432 conscripts aged 17-20 years old were analyzed. The findings show a reduction in regular condom use, with fixed and casual partners, mainly among those with poor educational level. The proportion of conscripts that have sex with other men was maintained (3.2%), but the index of risky sexual behavioral showed worsening results in this group. Also, the HIV prevalence rate increased from 9 to 11.3 per 10,000 in 2007, though the increase was not statistically significant. In conclusion, the evidences found in this paper indicate the need of reformulate policy among young adults.

IntroductionMozambique continues to face a severe HIV epidemic and high cost for its control, largely born by international donors. We assessed feasible targets, likely impact and costs for the 2015–2019 national strategic HIV/AIDS plan (NSP).MethodsThe HIV epidemic and response was modelled in the Spectrum/Goals/Resource Needs dynamical simulation model, separately for North/Center/South regions, fitted to antenatal clinic surveillance data, household and key risk group surveys, program statistics, and financial records. Intervention targets were defined in collaboration with the National AIDS Council, Ministry of Health, technical partners and implementing NGOs, considering existing commitments.ResultsImplementing the NSP to meet existing coverage targets would reduce annual new infections among all ages from 105,000 in 2014 to 78,000 in 2019, and reduce annual HIV/AIDS-related deaths from 80,000 to 56,000. Additional scale-up of prevention interventions targeting high-risk groups, with improved patient retention on ART, could further reduce burden to 65,000 new infections and 51,000 HIV-related deaths in 2019. Program cost would increase from US$ 273 million in 2014, to US$ 433 million in 2019 for ‘Current targets’, or US$ 495 million in 2019 for ‘Accelerated scale-up’. The ‘Accelerated scale-up’ would lower cost per infection averted, due to an enhanced focus on behavioural prevention for high-risk groups. Cost and mortality impact are driven by ART, which accounts for 53% of resource needs in 2019. Infections averted are driven by scale-up of interventions targeting sex work (North, rising epidemic) and voluntary male circumcision (Center & South, generalized epidemics).ConclusionThe NSP could aim to reduce annual new HIV infections and deaths by 2019 by 30% and 40%, respectively, from 2014 levels. Achieving incidence and mortality reductions corresponding to UNAIDS’ ‘Fast track’ targets will require increased ART coverage and additional behavioural prevention targeting key risk groups.

BackgroundThe objective of this paper is to review literature in order to calculate regional estimates of the average duration of time individuals maintain a specific high-risk behaviour.MethodsThe review targeted the key populations of female sex workers (FSW), male clients of female sex workers (MCFSW), people who inject drugs (injecting drug users (IDU)) and high-risk men who have sex with men (MSM). To be included in the review the study had to provide information on (1) the time a person spent at risk until death or cessation of the risk behaviour, (2) the percentage of the sample who initiated the risk behaviour in less than a year or (3) the mean or median duration of the behaviour from a representative sample.Results49 papers were found for the FSW population describing the period of time FSW stay in sex work to be between 2.9 years (Asia) and 12 years (Latin America). Eight papers were found for MCFSW showing the duration of the risk behaviour in this category varying from 4.6 years in Africa to 32 years in Asia. 86 papers were reviewed for the population of IDU showing that the average time a person injects illegal drugs varies from 5.6 years (Africa) to 21 years (South America). No information was found for duration of high-risk behaviour among MSM; instead, the definitions found in the literature for high- and low-risk behaviour among MSM were described.ConclusionsThere is high variability of estimates of duration of high-risk behaviours at regional level. More research is needed to inform models and prevention programmes on the average duration of time individuals maintain a specific high-risk behaviour.

BackgroundA retrospective analysis of deaths registered in the Brazilian Mortality System was conducted to quantify the under-reporting of HIV/AIDS deaths and those misclassified to AIDS-related conditions in the 15–49 years old population in Brazil.MethodsDeath rates for AIDS-related diseases were calculated by age and sex for 1985–2009. Changes in the age-sex-specific death rates over time were used to identify conditions likely to be misclassified AIDS deaths and to quantify the corresponding number of misclassified deaths. Deaths due to ill-defined causes were redistributed across all other natural causes of death. The resulting total number of AIDS deaths was further adjusted for incompleteness of the mortality reporting system.ResultsOut of the 28 potential causes of death investigated, five increased in the same distinct age pattern as AIDS: pneumonia, Kaposi's sarcoma, other immunodeficiencies, other septicaemia and toxoplasmosis. 18 490 deaths due to these five causes were recoded to HIV/AIDS from 1985 to 2009. 38 145 deaths due to ill-defined causes were redistributed to AIDS and 15 485 were added to the number of AIDS deaths to correct for completeness of the mortality system in Brazil. Altogether, 72 120 deaths were recoded to AIDS between 1985 and 2009 and added to the reported 194 445 AIDS related deaths in the country, representing 27% misclassification of AIDS deaths in Brazil.ConclusionsThis study demonstrated that AIDS mortality is underestimated by the official mortality information system in Brazil. Efforts need to be made to reduce misclassification of causes of death in the future and identify ways in which the confidentiality of information regarding cause of death can be maintained.

Background: There is scare information about HIV co-infections with hepatitis B virus (HBV) and/or hepatitis C virus (HCV) among People Who Inject Drugs (PWID) in Mozambique. This information is critical to ensure the treatment necessary to decrease the progression of liver disease and the transmission of both HIV and hepatitis. We assess the prevalence of HIV, HBV and HCV co-infections as well as associated risk factors among PWID. Methods: The first Bio-Behavioral Surveillance Survey was conducted in 2013-2014 among persons who selfreported to have ever injected drugs. Using respondent-driven sampling, PWID aged 18 years and older were recruited in two cross-sectional samples in Maputo and Nampula/Nacala, two large urban centers of Mozambique. Rapid screening of HIV, HBV (HBsAg) and HCV was performed on site. Data from participants in both cities were pooled to conduct RDS-weighted bivariate analyses with HIV/HBV and HIV/HCV co-infections as separate outcomes. Unweighted bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to assess correlates of coinfection. Results: Among 492 eligible PWID, 93.3% were male and median age was 32 years [IQR: 27-36]. HIV, HBV and HCV prevalence were respectively 44.9% (95% CI:37.6-52.3), 32.8% (95% CI:26.3-39.5) and 38.3 (95% CI:30.6-45.9). Coinfections of HIV/HBV, HIV/HCV and HIV/HBV/HCV were identified in 13.1% (95% CI:7.2-18.9), 29.5% (95% CI:22.2-36.8) and 9.2% (95% CI:3.7-14.7) of PWID, respectively. Older age, history of needle/syringe sharing and history of injection with used needle/syringe was associated with HIV/HBV co-infection. Living in Maputo city, have older age, history of needle/syringe sharing and history of injection with used needle/syringe was associated with HIV/HCV coinfection.

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Background: Key populations-men who have sex with men (MSM), female sex workers (FSW) and people who inject drugs (PWID)are at high risk for sexually transmitted infections (STI) given their sexual risk behaviours along with social, legal and structural barriers to prevention, care and treatment services. The purpose of this secondary analysis is to assess the prevalence of self-reported STIs and to describe associated risk factors among participations of the first Biological Behavioural Surveillance (BBS) in Mozambique. Methods: Responses from the first BBS surveys conducted in 2011-2014 were aggregated across survey-cities to produce pooled estimates for each population. Aggregate weighted estimates were computed to analyse selfreported STI prevalence. Unweighted pooled estimates were used in multivariable logistic regression to identify risk factors associated with self-reported STI. Results: The prevalence of self-reported STI was 11.9% (95% CI, 7.8-16.0), 33.6% (95% CI, 29.0-41.3), and 22.0% (95% CI, 17.0-27.0) among MSM, FSW and PWID, respectively. MSM who were circumcised, had HIV, reported drug use, reported receptive anal sex, and non-condom use with their last male partner had greater odds of STI self-report. STI-self report among FSW was associated with living in Beira, being married, employment aside from sex work, physical violence, sexual violence, drug use, access to comprehensive HIV prevention services, non-condom use with last client, and sexual relationship with a non-client romantic partner. Among PWID, risk factors for selfreported STI included living in Nampula/Nacala, access to HIV prevention services, and sex work. Conclusion: The high-burden of STIs among survey participants requires integrated HIV and STI prevention, treatment, and harm reduction services that address overlapping risk behaviours, especially injection drug use and sex work. A robust public health response requires the creation of a national STI surveillance system for better screening and diagnostic procedures within these vulnerable populations.