[1] We developed a water-centric monthly scale simulation model (WaSSI-C) by integrating empirical water and carbon flux measurements from the FLUXNET network and an existing water supply and demand accounting model (WaSSI). The WaSSI-C model was evaluated with basin-scale evapotranspiration (ET), gross ecosystem productivity (GEP), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) estimates by multiple independent methods across 2103 eight-digit Hydrologic Unit Code watersheds in the conterminous United States from 2001 to 2006. Our results indicate that WaSSI-C captured the spatial and temporal variability and the effects of large droughts on key ecosystem fluxes. Our modeled mean (±standard deviation in space) ET (556 ± 228 mm yr −1 ) compared well to Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) based (527 ± 251 mm yr −1 ) and watershed water balance based ET (571 ± 242 mm yr −1 ). Our mean annual GEP estimates (1362 ± 688 g C m −2 yr −1 ) compared well (R 2 = 0.83) to estimates (1194 ± 649 g C m −2 yr −1 ) by eddy flux-based EC-MOD model, but both methods led significantly higher (25-30%) values than the standard MODIS product (904 ± 467 g C m −2 yr −1 ). Among the 18 water resource regions, the southeast ranked the highest in terms of its water yield and carbon sequestration capacity. When all ecosystems were considered, the mean NEE (−353 ± 298 g C m −2 yr −1 ) predicted by this study was 60% higher than EC-MOD's estimate (−220 ± 225 g C m −2 yr −1) in absolute magnitude, suggesting overall high uncertainty in quantifying NEE at a large scale. Our water-centric model offers a new tool for examining the trade-offs between regional water and carbon resources under a changing environment.

Assessment of long‐term impacts of projected changes in climate, population, and land use and land cover on regional water resource is critical to the sustainable development of the southeastern United States. The objective of this study was to fully budget annual water availability for water supply (precipitation − evapotranspiration + groundwater supply + return flow) and demand from commercial, domestic, industrial, irrigation, livestock, mining, and thermoelectric uses. The Water Supply Stress Index and Water Supply Stress Index Ratio were developed to evaluate water stress conditions over time and across the 666 eight‐digit Hydrologic Unit Code basins in the 13 southeastern states. Predictions from two Global Circulation Models (CGC1 and HadCM2Sul), one land use change model, and one human population model, were integrated to project future water supply stress in 2020. We found that population increase greatly stressed water supply in metropolitan areas located in the Piedmont region and Florida. Predicted land use and land cover changes will have little effect on water quantity and water supply‐water demand relationship. In contrast, climate changes had the most pronounced effects on regional water supply and demand, especially in western Texas where water stress was historically highest in the study region. The simulation system developed by this study is useful for water resource planners to address water shortage problems such as those experienced during 2007 in the study region. Future studies should focus on refining the water supply term to include flow exchanges between watersheds and constraints of water quality and environmental flows to water availability for human use.

Rivers are essential to aquatic ecosystem and societal sustainability, but are increasingly impacted by water withdrawals, land-use change, and climate change. The relative and cumulative effects of these stressors on continental river flows are relatively unknown. In this study, we used an integrated water balance and flow routing model to evaluate the impacts of impervious cover and water withdrawal on river flow across the conterminous US at the 8-digit Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC) watershed scale. We then estimated the impacts of projected change in withdrawals, impervious cover, and climate under the B1 "Low" and A2 "High" emission scenarios on river flows by 2060. Our results suggest that compared to no impervious cover, 2010 levels of impervious cover increased river flows by 9.9% on average with larger impacts in and downstream of major metropolitan areas. In contrast, compared to no water withdrawals, 2005 withdrawals decreased river flows by 1.4% on average with larger impacts in heavily irrigated arid regions of Western US. By 2060, impacts of climate change were predicted to overwhelm the potential gain in river flow due to future changes in impervious cover and add to the potential reduction in river flows from withdrawals, decreasing mean annual river flows from 2010 levels by 16% on average. However, increases in impervious cover by 2060 may offset the impact of climate change during the growing season in some watersheds. Large water withdrawals will aggravate the predicted impact of climate change on river flows, particularly in the Western US. Predicted ecohydrological impacts of land cover, water withdrawal, and climate change will likely include alteration of the terrestrial water balance, stream channel habitat, riparian and aquatic community structure in snow-dominated basins, and fish and mussel extirpations in heavily impacted watersheds. These changes may also require new infrastructure to support increasing anthropogenic demand for water, relocation of agricultural production, and/or water conservation measures. Given that the impacts of land use, withdrawals and climate may be either additive or offsetting in different magnitudes, integrated and spatially explicit modeling and management approaches are necessary to effectively manage water resources for aquatic life and human use in the face of global change

Wildland fire impacts on surface freshwater resources have not previously been measured, nor factored into regional water management strategies. But, large wildland fires are increasing and raise concerns about fire impacts on potable water. Here we synthesize long-term records of wildland fire, climate, and river flow for 168 locations across the United States. We show that annual river flow changed in 32 locations, where more than 19% of the basin area was burned. Wildland fires enhanced annual river flow in the western regions with a warm temperate or humid continental climate. Wildland fires increased annual river flow most in the semi-arid Lower Colorado region, in spite of frequent droughts in this region. In contrast, prescribed burns in the subtropical Southeast did not significantly alter river flow. These extremely variable outcomes offer new insights into the potential role of wildfire and prescribed fire in regional water resource management, under a changing climate.

Increasing variability of rainfall patterns requires detailed understanding of the pathways of water loss from ecosystems to optimize carbon uptake and management choices. In the current study we characterized the usability of three alternative methods of different rigor for quantifying stand-level evapotranspiration (ET), partitioned ET into tree transpiration (T), understory transpiration, interception, and soil evaporation (E S ) and determined their sensitivity to drought, and evaluated the reliability of soil moisture measurements by taking into account deep soil moisture dynamic. The analyses were conducted in an early-and in a mid-rotation stand of loblolly pine, the predominant species of southern US forest plantations. The three alternative methods for estimating ET were the eddy covariance measurements of water vapor fluxes (ET EC ), the water table fluctuation (ET WT ), and the soil moisture fluctuation (ET SM ). On annual and monthly scales, the three methods agreed to within 10 -20%, whereas on a daily scale, the values of ET SM and ET EC differed by up to 50% and ET SM and ET WT differed by up to 100%. The differences between the methods were attributed to root water extraction below measurement depth and to the sampling at different spatial scales. Regardless of the method used, ET at the early-rotation site was 15-30% lower than that at the mid-rotation site. The dry years did not affect ET at the mid-rotation site but reduced significantly ET at the early-rotation site. Soil moisture trends revealed the importance of measuring water content at several depths throughout the rooting zone because less than 20% of the water is stored in the top 30 cm of soil. Annually, E S represented approximately 9 and 14% of ET EC at the mid-rotation site and the early-rotation site, respectively. At the mid-rotation site, T accounted for approximately 70% of ET EC . Canopy interception was estimated to be 5-10% of annual precipitation and 6 -13% of total ET EC . At the early-rotation site, T accounted for only 35% of ET EC . At this site, transpiration from subdominant trees and shrubs represented 40 -45% of ET EC , indicating that understory was a significant part of the water budget. We concluded that the eddy covariance method is best for estimating ET at the fine temporal scale (i.e., daily), but other soil moisture and water table-based methods were equally reliable and cost-effective for quantifying seasonal ET dynamics. FOR. SCI. 58(5):497-512.Keywords: eddy covariance, loblolly pine, Pinus taeda, sapflow, soil moisture probes, water table L OBLOLLY PINE (PINUS TAEDA L.) REPRESENTS ONE-HALF OF THE STANDING PINE VOLUME in the southern United States (11.7 million ha) and is by far the single most commercially important forest tree species for the region, with more than 1 billion seedlings planted annually (McKeand et al. 2003). More than 1 million ha of intensively managed loblolly pine plantations are found along the lower coastal plain in eastern North Carolina. Large areas of the North Carolina...

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a b s t r a c tThe 781,000 km 2 (193 million acre) United States National Forests and Grasslands system (NF) provides important ecosystem services such as clean water supply, timber production, wildlife habitat, and recreation opportunities to the American public. Quantifying the historical impacts of climate change and drought on ecosystem functions at the national scale is essential to develop sound forest management and watershed restoration plans under a changing climate. This study applied the previously validated Water Supply and Stress Index model (WaSSI) to 170 NFs in the conterminous U.S. (CONUS) to examine how historical extreme droughts have affected forest water yield (Q) and gross primary productivity (GPP). For each NF, we focused on the five years with the lowest annual SPI3 (Standardized Precipitation Index on a 3-month time scale) during 1962-2012. The extent of extreme droughts as measured by the number of NFs and total area affected by droughts has increased during the last decade. Across all lands in CONUS, the most extreme drought during the past decade occurred in 2002, resulting in a mean reduction of Q by 32% and GPP by 20%. For the 170 individual NFs, on average, the top-five droughts represented a reduction in precipitation by 145 mm yr À1 (or 22%), causing reductions in evapotranspiration by 29 mm yr À1 (or 8%), Q by 110 mm yr À1 (or 37%) and GPP by 65 gC m À2 yr À1 (or 9%). The responses of the forest hydrology and productivity to the top-five droughts varied spatially due to different land-surface characteristics (e.g., climatology and vegetation) and drought severity at each NF. This study provides a comprehensive benchmark assessment of likely drought impacts on the hydrology and productivity in NFs using consistent methods and datasets across the conterminous U.S. The study results are useful to the forestry decision makers for developing appropriate strategies to restore and protect ecosystem services in anticipating potential future droughts and climate change.Published by Elsevier B.V.

More than 50% of water supplies in the conterminous United States originate on forestland or rangeland and are potentially under increasing stress as a result of larger and more severe wildfires. Little is known, however, about the long-term impacts of fire on annual water yield and the role of climate variability within this context. We here propose a framework for evaluating wildland fire impacts on streamflow that combines double-mass analysis with new methods (change point analysis, climate elasticity modeling, and process-based modeling) to distinguish between multiyear fire and climate impacts. The framework captures a wide range of fire types, watersheds characteristics, and climate conditions using streamflow data, as opposed to other approaches requiring paired watersheds. The process is illustrated with three case studies. A watershed in Arizona experienced a +266% increase in annual water yield in the 5 years after a wildfire, where +219% was attributed to wildfire and +24% to precipitation trends. In contrast, a California watershed had a lower (−64%) post-fire net water yield, comprised of enhanced flow (+38%) attributed to wildfire offset (−102%) by lower precipitation in the post-fire period.Changes in streamflow within a watershed in South Carolina had no apparent link to periods of prescribed burning but matched a very wet winter and reports of storm damage. The presented framework is unique in its ability to detect and quantify fire or other disturbances, even if the date or nature of the disturbance event is uncertain, and regardless of precipitation trends.