On 31 August a new eruption began from the same fissure and is still ongoing at the time of writing. After 4 September the movement associated with the dyke was minor, suggesting an approximate equilibrium between inflow of magma into the dyke and magma flowing out of it feeding the eruption. Minor eruptions may have occurred under Vatnajškull; shallow ice depressions marked by circular crevasses (ice cauldrons) were discovered in the period 27/08-07/09, indicating leakage of magma or magmatic heat to the glacier causing basal melting ( Fig. 1 and 2b). On 5 September, aircraft radar profiling showed that the ice surface in the centre of the B ‡r!arbunga caldera had subsided 16 m relative to the surroundings, resulting in a 0.32±0.08 km 3 subsidence bowl ( can be compared to a 1 day interferogram over the ice surface spanning 27 -28 August (Fig. 1), that has maximum line-of-sight (LOS) increase of 57 cm, indicating 55-70 cm of subsidence, during 24 hours. From 24 August to 6 September 16 M≥5 earthquakes occurred on the caldera boundary.Over 22000 earthquakes were automatically detected 16/08-06/09 2014, 5000 of which have been manually checked. Four thousand of these have been relatively relocated, defining the dyke segments. Ground deformation in areas outside the Vatnajškull ice cap, and on nunataks within the ice cap, is well mapped by a combination of InSAR, continuously recording GPS sites, and campaign GPS measurements. The GPS observations and analysis give the temporal evolution of the three-dimensional displacements used in the modelling (Fig. 1). Interferometric analysis of synthetic aperture radar images from the COSMO-SkyMed, RADARSAT-2 and TerraSAR-X satellites was used to form 11 interferograms showing LOS change spanning different time intervals (Supplementary Fig. 2). The analysis of seismic and geodetic data is described in Methods.Initial modelling of the dyke, with no a priori constraints on position, strike or dip, show the deformation data require the dyke to be approximately vertical and line up with the seismicity (Extended Data item 4). We therefore fixed the dip to be vertical and the lateral position of the dyke to coincide with the earthquake locations.We modelled the dyke as a series of rectangular patches and estimated the opening and slip on each patch ( Fig. 3a; see Supplementary Figures 3-4 for slip and standard deviations of opening). We used a Markov-chain Monte Carlo approach to estimate 7 the multivariate probability distribution for all model parameters (Methods) on each day 16/08-06/09 2014 (Fig. 2d). The results suggest that most of the magma injected into the dyke is shallower than the seismicity, which mostly spans the depth range from 5 to 8 km below sea level (see Fig. 2c and Methods). While magma may extend to depths greater than 9 km near the centre of the ice cap, towards the edge of the ice cap where constraints from InSAR and GPS are much better, significant opening is all shallower than 5 km (Fig. 3a). The total volume intruded into the dyke by 28 August was 0.48-0...

Gradual inflation of magma chambers often precedes eruptions at highly active volcanoes. During such eruptions, rapid deflation occurs as magma flows out and pressure is reduced. Less is known about the deformation style at moderately active volcanoes, such as Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland, where an explosive summit eruption of trachyandesite beginning on 14 April 2010 caused exceptional disruption to air traffic, closing airspace over much of Europe for days. This eruption was preceded by an effusive flank eruption of basalt from 20 March to 12 April 2010. The 2010 eruptions are the culmination of 18 years of intermittent volcanic unrest. Here we show that deformation associated with the eruptions was unusual because it did not relate to pressure changes within a single magma chamber. Deformation was rapid before the first eruption (>5 mm per day after 4 March), but negligible during it. Lack of distinct co-eruptive deflation indicates that the net volume of magma drained from shallow depth during this eruption was small; rather, magma flowed from considerable depth. Before the eruption, a ∼0.05 km(3) magmatic intrusion grew over a period of three months, in a temporally and spatially complex manner, as revealed by GPS (Global Positioning System) geodetic measurements and interferometric analysis of satellite radar images. The second eruption occurred within the ice-capped caldera of the volcano, with explosivity amplified by magma-ice interaction. Gradual contraction of a source, distinct from the pre-eruptive inflation sources, is evident from geodetic data. Eyjafjallajökull's behaviour can be attributed to its off-rift setting with a 'cold' subsurface structure and limited magma at shallow depth, as may be typical for moderately active volcanoes. Clear signs of volcanic unrest signals over years to weeks may indicate reawakening of such volcanoes, whereas immediate short-term eruption precursors may be subtle and difficult to detect.

Changes in groundwater chemistry have been proposed as earthquake precursors. These include changes in radon count rates 1-2 , concentrations of dissolved elements 3-5 and stable isotope ratios 4-5. Other proposed precursors include changes in seismic wave velocities 6 , water levels in boreholes 7 , micro-seismicity 8 and shear wave splitting 9. These phenomena have often been attributed to rock

[1] GPS observations in south Iceland between 1994 and 2003 are compared with twodimensional elastic half-space and viscoelastic coupling models for two parallel rift zones, representing the Western and Eastern volcanic zones (WVZ, EVZ). GPS data from the Hreppar block, between the WVZ and EVZ, fit a rigid block model within uncertainties. Spreading rates across the WVZ increase from 2.6 ± 0.9 mm/yr in the northeast to 7.0 ± 0.4 mm/yr in the southwest. Conversely, spreading rates in the EVZ decrease from 19.0 ± 2.0 mm/yr in the northeast to 11.0 ± 0.8 mm/yr in the southwest, the direction of ridge propagation. Summed extension rates across the two rift zones are approximately constant and equal to the total plate rate, $18-20 mm/yr, consistent with a simple propagating ridge model whereby the WVZ is deactivating in the direction of EVZ propagation. The coupling model confirms results from the simple elastic half-space model, including relatively shallow locking depths (<5 km) beneath the rift zones, and allows for an estimate of mean viscosity ($10 19

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