On 31 August a new eruption began from the same fissure and is still ongoing at the time of writing. After 4 September the movement associated with the dyke was minor, suggesting an approximate equilibrium between inflow of magma into the dyke and magma flowing out of it feeding the eruption. Minor eruptions may have occurred under Vatnajškull; shallow ice depressions marked by circular crevasses (ice cauldrons) were discovered in the period 27/08-07/09, indicating leakage of magma or magmatic heat to the glacier causing basal melting ( Fig. 1 and 2b). On 5 September, aircraft radar profiling showed that the ice surface in the centre of the B ‡r!arbunga caldera had subsided 16 m relative to the surroundings, resulting in a 0.32±0.08 km 3 subsidence bowl ( can be compared to a 1 day interferogram over the ice surface spanning 27 -28 August (Fig. 1), that has maximum line-of-sight (LOS) increase of 57 cm, indicating 55-70 cm of subsidence, during 24 hours. From 24 August to 6 September 16 M≥5 earthquakes occurred on the caldera boundary.Over 22000 earthquakes were automatically detected 16/08-06/09 2014, 5000 of which have been manually checked. Four thousand of these have been relatively relocated, defining the dyke segments. Ground deformation in areas outside the Vatnajškull ice cap, and on nunataks within the ice cap, is well mapped by a combination of InSAR, continuously recording GPS sites, and campaign GPS measurements. The GPS observations and analysis give the temporal evolution of the three-dimensional displacements used in the modelling (Fig. 1). Interferometric analysis of synthetic aperture radar images from the COSMO-SkyMed, RADARSAT-2 and TerraSAR-X satellites was used to form 11 interferograms showing LOS change spanning different time intervals (Supplementary Fig. 2). The analysis of seismic and geodetic data is described in Methods.Initial modelling of the dyke, with no a priori constraints on position, strike or dip, show the deformation data require the dyke to be approximately vertical and line up with the seismicity (Extended Data item 4). We therefore fixed the dip to be vertical and the lateral position of the dyke to coincide with the earthquake locations.We modelled the dyke as a series of rectangular patches and estimated the opening and slip on each patch ( Fig. 3a; see Supplementary Figures 3-4 for slip and standard deviations of opening). We used a Markov-chain Monte Carlo approach to estimate 7 the multivariate probability distribution for all model parameters (Methods) on each day 16/08-06/09 2014 (Fig. 2d). The results suggest that most of the magma injected into the dyke is shallower than the seismicity, which mostly spans the depth range from 5 to 8 km below sea level (see Fig. 2c and Methods). While magma may extend to depths greater than 9 km near the centre of the ice cap, towards the edge of the ice cap where constraints from InSAR and GPS are much better, significant opening is all shallower than 5 km (Fig. 3a). The total volume intruded into the dyke by 28 August was 0.48-0...

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40Large volcanic eruptions on Earth commonly occur with collapse of the roof of a crustal magma 41 reservoir, forming a caldera. Only a few such collapses occur per century and lack of detailed 42 observations has obscured insight on mechanical interplay between collapse and eruption. We use Calderas are 1 -100 km diameter depressions found in volcanic regions of Earth and other planets. basaltic andesite) intrusive activity and eruptions (2,(9)(10)(11)(12). 59The consensus from field and modelling studies is that caldera collapse progresses from initial 60 surface downsag to fault-controlled subsidence (1, 8, 13, 14). The pre-collapse topography is obtained by subtracting the subsidence observed at the surface. As we recorded the caldera subsidence mainly on the ice (Fig. 1, Fig. S1), we made corrections and (Fig. 3A). We therefore conclude that suggestions of a large increase in ice flow out of the caldera 147 during these events (25) cannot be fitted with our data. 148Bedrock subsidence exceeding 1 m occurred within an area of 110 km 2 that extended beyond the 149 pre-existing caldera (Fig. 1, Fig. S1). After termination of collapse the total subsidence at the pre-150 existing caldera rims amounted to 3 to 11 meters ( Fig. 1D and 1E). Using subglacial radio-echo GPS station in the center of the caldera (Fig. 1A), including the rate of vertical rate of ice surface Cumulative number of M>4 caldera earthquakes, with magnitude evolution colored in red, blue and 176 grey representing clusters on the southern rim, the northern rim and smaller clusters, respectively 177 (see Fig. S5). E) Cumulative seismic moment for M>4 caldera earthquakes. from analysis of subaerial gas measurements (Fig. 4). This depth concurs with our regional on FTIR and Multi-GAS measurements (24). 194Seismicity and subsurface structure 195 We used seismic data and Distinct Element Method (DEM) numerical modelling (24), to 196 characterize the deeper collapse structure as the reactivation of a steeply-inclined ring fault (Fig. 5). 197We mostly observed seismicity at depths of 0-9 km beneath the northern and southern caldera rims 198( Fig. 5B), with earthquakes being more numerous on the northern rim. This spatial pattern of 199 seismicity is consistent with fracturing above a deflating magma reservoir that was elliptical in (Fig. 5C, D). Our best fitting models had preexisting faults dipping out at 80-85¡ from the caldera 207 center on the north side and at 85-90¡ toward the caldera center on the south side. The modeled pre- 208existing faults lay at 1-2 km below the surface on the north side and 3-4 km on the south side. 209Modeling of a more complex fault geometry or the inclusion of greater material heterogeneity may 210 further improve the data fit, but presently lacks robust geophysical constraints. components of the observed earthquakes at B ‡rdarbunga. We, however, narrowed down on 222 plausible solutions by using the micro-earthquakes (Fig. 5A). The moment tensor solutions are well 223 constrained, but the inferred d...

Gradual inflation of magma chambers often precedes eruptions at highly active volcanoes. During such eruptions, rapid deflation occurs as magma flows out and pressure is reduced. Less is known about the deformation style at moderately active volcanoes, such as Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland, where an explosive summit eruption of trachyandesite beginning on 14 April 2010 caused exceptional disruption to air traffic, closing airspace over much of Europe for days. This eruption was preceded by an effusive flank eruption of basalt from 20 March to 12 April 2010. The 2010 eruptions are the culmination of 18 years of intermittent volcanic unrest. Here we show that deformation associated with the eruptions was unusual because it did not relate to pressure changes within a single magma chamber. Deformation was rapid before the first eruption (>5 mm per day after 4 March), but negligible during it. Lack of distinct co-eruptive deflation indicates that the net volume of magma drained from shallow depth during this eruption was small; rather, magma flowed from considerable depth. Before the eruption, a ∼0.05 km(3) magmatic intrusion grew over a period of three months, in a temporally and spatially complex manner, as revealed by GPS (Global Positioning System) geodetic measurements and interferometric analysis of satellite radar images. The second eruption occurred within the ice-capped caldera of the volcano, with explosivity amplified by magma-ice interaction. Gradual contraction of a source, distinct from the pre-eruptive inflation sources, is evident from geodetic data. Eyjafjallajökull's behaviour can be attributed to its off-rift setting with a 'cold' subsurface structure and limited magma at shallow depth, as may be typical for moderately active volcanoes. Clear signs of volcanic unrest signals over years to weeks may indicate reawakening of such volcanoes, whereas immediate short-term eruption precursors may be subtle and difficult to detect.

[1] The best-studied dike intrusion events on a divergent plate boundary occurred along the Krafla segment of the northern rift zone in Iceland from [1975][1976][1977][1978][1979][1980][1981][1982][1983][1984]. Seismic and geodetic measurements there showed that a central magma chamber fed dikes that propagated laterally many times the thickness of the lithosphere. The patterns of dike length, dike width, caldera subsidence, and lava extrusion strongly suggest that dike propagation is affected by tectonic stresses that change with each dike intrusion event and that magma pressures are linked to the dike opening. These observations have inspired us to develop a quantitative model for the lateral propagation of basaltic dikes away from a magma chamber. We assume dikes propagate as long as there is sufficient driving pressure, defined as the difference between magma pressure and tectonic stress at the dike tip. The opening dike and the magma chamber are treated as a closed system for a given dike intrusion event. During an event, magma pressure is reduced linearly with the magma volume withdrawn from the chamber. Relative tectonic tension in the lithosphere is reduced linearly as the dike width increases. A dike begins propagation when the driving pressure equals the ''breakout'' pressure needed to force the magma out of the chamber. It stops when the driving pressure reaches a minimum value. Generally, the dike width is proportional to this ''stopping'' pressure, and a reasonable value gives a width of 1 m. Besides the breakout and stopping pressures, the propagation distance depends on the initial distribution of tectonic stress and the thickness of the lithosphere cut by a dike. The intrusion of a dike changes the tectonic stress distribution so that subsequent dikes may propagate different distances and directions than the first dike. After a period of magma chamber refilling, a new dike can initiate if the breakout pressure is reached. For an idealized spreading segment the tectonic stress field evolves to produce a sequence of dikes propagating in one direction followed by a sequence of dikes propagating in the opposite direction. The first dike in each sequence should be the longest followed by successively shorter dikes. When tectonic stresses close to a magma chamber have been largely relieved, then extrusion of magma may start. The model pattern of dike propagation and extrusion is consistent with data from the Krafla episode. Magma chamber size should have a major effect on magmatic systems in other tectonic settings with larger magma chambers producing longer characteristic dikes.Citation: Buck, W. R., P. Einarsson, and B. Brandsdóttir (2006), Tectonic stress and magma chamber size as controls on dike propagation:

Most of the Earth's crust is created along 60,000 km of mid-ocean ridge system. Here, tectonic plates spread apart and, in doing so, gradually build up stress. This stress is released during rifting episodes, when bursts of magmatic activity lead to the injection of vertical sheets of magma -termed dykes -into the crust. Only 2% of the global mid-ocean ridge system is above sea level, so making direct observations of the rifting process is difficult. However, geodetic and seismic observations exist from spreading centres in Afar (East Africa) and Iceland that are exposed at the land surface. Rifting episodes are rare, but the few that have been well observed at these sites have operated with remarkably similar mechanisms. Specifically, magma is supplied to the crust in an intermittent manner, and is stored at multiple positions and depths. It then laterally intrudes in dykes within the brittle upper crust. Depending on the availability of magma, multiple magma centres can interact during one rifting episode. If we are to forecast large eruptions at spreading centres, rifting-cycle models will need to fully incorporate realistic crust and mantle properties, as well as the dynamic transport of magma.

The July 1978 deflation of the Krafla volcano in the volcanic rift zone of NE-Iceland was in most respects typical of the many deflation events that have occurred at Krafla since December 1975. Separated by periods of slow inflation, the deflation events are characterized by rapid subsidence in the caldera region, volcanic tremor and extensive rifting in the fault swarm that transsects the volcano. Earthquakes increase in the caldera region shortly after deflation starts and propagate along the fault swarm away from the central part of the volcano, sometimes as far as 6 5 km. The deflation events are eted as the result of subsurface magmatic movements, when ma from the Krafla reservoir is injected laterally into fault swarm to form a dyke. In the July 1978 event magma was injected a total distance of 30 km into the northern fault swarm. The dyke tip propagated with the velocity of 0.4-0.5 m/sec during the first 9 hours, but the velocity decreased as the length of 'the dyke increased. 'Combined with surface deformation data, these data can be used to estimate the cross sectional area of the dyke and the driving pressure of the magma. The cross sectional area is variable along the dyke and is largest in the regions of maximum earthquake activity. The average value is 1200 m2. The pressure difference between the magm ervoir and the dyke tip was of the order of 10-40 bars and did not change much during the injection.

[1] GPS observations in south Iceland between 1994 and 2003 are compared with twodimensional elastic half-space and viscoelastic coupling models for two parallel rift zones, representing the Western and Eastern volcanic zones (WVZ, EVZ). GPS data from the Hreppar block, between the WVZ and EVZ, fit a rigid block model within uncertainties. Spreading rates across the WVZ increase from 2.6 ± 0.9 mm/yr in the northeast to 7.0 ± 0.4 mm/yr in the southwest. Conversely, spreading rates in the EVZ decrease from 19.0 ± 2.0 mm/yr in the northeast to 11.0 ± 0.8 mm/yr in the southwest, the direction of ridge propagation. Summed extension rates across the two rift zones are approximately constant and equal to the total plate rate, $18-20 mm/yr, consistent with a simple propagating ridge model whereby the WVZ is deactivating in the direction of EVZ propagation. The coupling model confirms results from the simple elastic half-space model, including relatively shallow locking depths (<5 km) beneath the rift zones, and allows for an estimate of mean viscosity ($10 19