Evolution has traditionally been a historical and descriptive science and predicting future evolutionary processes has long been considered impossible. However, evolutionary predictions are increasingly being developed and used in medicine, agriculture, biotechnology and conservation biology. Evolutionary predictions may be used for different purposes, such as to prepare for the future, to try and change the course of evolution or to determine how well we understand evolutionary processes. Similarly, the exact aspect of the evolved population that we want to predict may also differ, for example we could try to predict which genotype will dominate, the fitness of the population, or the extinction probability of a population. In addition, there are many uses of evolutionary predictions that may not always be recognized as such. The main goal of this review is to increase awareness of methods and data that are used to make these predictions in different research fields by showing the breadth of situations in which evolutionary predictions are made. We describe how diverse evolutionary predictions share a common structure described by the predictive scope, time scale and precision. Then, by using examples ranging from SARS-CoV2 and influenza to CRISPR-based gene drives and sustainable product formation in biotechnology, we discuss the methods for predicting evolution, the factors that affect predictability, and how predictions can be used to prevent evolution in undesirable directions or to promote beneficial evolution (i.e. evolutionary control). We hope that this review will stimulate collaboration between fields by creating a common language for evolutionary predictions.

According to quasispecies theory, high mutation rates limit the amount of information genomes can store (Eigen’s Paradox), whereas genomes with higher degrees of neutrality may be selected even at the expenses of higher replication rates (the “survival of the flattest” effect). Introducing a complex genotype to phenotype map, such as RNA folding, epitomizes such effect because of the existence of neutral networks and their exploitation by evolution, affecting both population structure and genome composition. We reexamine these classical results in the light of an RNA-based system that can evolve its own ecology. Contrary to expectations, we find that quasispecies evolving at high mutation rates are steep and characterized by one master sequence. Importantly, the analysis of the system and the characterization of the evolved quasispecies reveal the emergence of functionalities as phenotypes of nonreplicating genotypes, whose presence is crucial for the overall viability and stability of the system. In other words, the master sequence codes for the information of the entire ecosystem, whereas the decoding happens, stochastically, through mutations. We show that this solution quickly outcompetes strategies based on genomes with a high degree of neutrality. In conclusion, individually coded but ecosystem-based diversity evolves and persists indefinitely close to the Information Threshold.

BackgroundCooperation is ubiquitous in biological systems, yet its evolution is a long lasting evolutionary problem. A general and intuitive result from theoretical models of cooperative behaviour is that cooperation decreases when its costs are higher, because selfish individuals gain selective advantage.ResultsContrary to this intuition, we show that cooperation can increase with higher costs. We analyse a minimal model where individuals live on a lattice and evolve the degree of cooperation. We find that a feedback establishes between the evolutionary dynamics of public good production and the spatial self-organisation of the population. The evolutionary dynamics lead to the speciation of a cooperative and a selfish lineage. The ensuing spatial self-organisation automatically diversifies the selection pressure on the two lineages. This enables selfish individuals to successfully invade cooperators at the expenses of their autonomous replication, and cooperators to increase public good production while expanding in the empty space left behind by cheaters. We show that this emergent feedback leads to higher degrees of cooperation when costs are higher.ConclusionsAn emergent feedback between evolution and self-organisation leads to high degrees of cooperation at high costs, under simple and general conditions. We propose this as a general explanation for the evolution of cooperative behaviours under seemingly prohibitive conditions.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12862-016-0600-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

In a prebiotic RNA world, parasitic behaviour may be favoured because template dependent replication happens in trans, thus being altruistic. Spatially extended systems are known to reduce harmful effects of parasites. Here we present a spatial system to show that evolution of replication is (indirectly) enhanced by strong parasites, and we characterise the phase transition that leads to this mode of evolution. Building on the insights of this analysis, we identify two scenarios, namely periodic disruptions and longer replication time-span, in which speciation occurs and an evolved parasite-like lineage enables the evolutionary increase of replication rates in replicators. Finally, we show that parasites co-evolving with replicators are selected to become weaker, i.e. worse templates for replication when the duration of replication is increased. We conclude that parasites may not be considered a problem for evolution in a prebiotic system, but a degree of freedom that can be exploited by evolution to enhance the evolvability of replicators, by means of emergent levels of selection.