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The sensitivity of vector borne diseases like malaria to climate continues to raise considerable concern over the implications of climate change on future disease dynamics. The problem of malaria vectors shifting from their traditional locations to invade new zones is of important concern. A mathematical model incorporating rainfall and temperature is constructed to study the transmission dynamics of malaria. The reproduction number obtained is applied to gridded temperature and rainfall datasets for baseline climate and future climate with aid of GIS. As a result of climate change, malaria burden is likely to increase in the tropics, the highland regions, and East Africa and along the northern limit of falciparum malaria. Falciparum malaria will spread into the African highlands; however it is likely to die out at the southern limit of the disease.

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Having updated knowledge of cropland extent is essential for crop monitoring and food security early warning. Previous research has proposed different methods and adopted various datasets for mapping cropland areas at regional to global scales. However, most approaches did not consider the characteristics of farming systems and apply the same classification method in different agroecological zones (AEZs). Furthermore, the acquisition of in situ samples for classification training remains challenging. To address these knowledge gaps and challenges, this study applied a zone-specific classification by comparing four classifiers (random forest, the support vector machine (SVM), the classification and regression tree (CART) and minimum distance) for cropland mapping over four different AEZs in the Zambezi River basin (ZRB). Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 data and derived indices were used and synthesized to generate thirty-five layers for classification on the Google Earth Engine platform. Training samples were derived from three existing landcover datasets to minimize the cost of sample acquisitions over the large area. The final cropland map was generated at a 10 m resolution. The performance of the four classifiers and the viability of training samples were analysed. All classifiers presented higher accuracy in cool AEZs than in warm AEZs, which may be attributed to field size and lower confusion between cropland and grassland classes. This indicates that agricultural landscape may impact classification results regardless of the classifiers. Random forest was found to be the most stable and accurate classifier across different agricultural systems, with an overall accuracy of 84% and a kappa coefficient of 0.67. Samples extracted over the full agreement areas among existing datasets reduced uncertainty and provided reliable calibration sets as a replacement of costly in situ measurements. The methodology proposed by this study can be used to generate periodical high-resolution cropland maps in ZRB, which is helpful for the analysis of cropland extension and abandonment as well as intensity changes in response to the escalating population and food insecurity.