. Increasing the effectiveness of participatory scenario development through codesign. ABSTRACT. Developing scenarios to explore possible environmental futures is a widely used tool in social-ecological research. Scenario planners working in environmental systems increasingly enlist stakeholders to help develop scenarios, but effectively integrating stakeholder participation with scenario analyses and modeling remains a challenge. Using the New England Landscape Futures project as a case study, we explore how a method for codesigning a scenario elicitation process can be used to help balance the needs of both stakeholders and scientists. To illustrate the design process, we document eight influential decisions made with stakeholder input, describe the competing demands that we negotiated, and outline the rationale for the selected approach. We find that three priorities drove most of our decisions: maximizing stakeholder involvement in the scenario development process, efficient use of stakeholder time, and research needs. The outcome was a robust, intense, and highly structured one-day scenario development protocol that engaged stakeholders in the full scenario development process from initial orientation and identification of driving forces through to fleshedout scenarios narratives and quantitative inputs able to inform land-use simulations. Its deployment in six state-specific workshops was successful in eliciting divergent scenarios that stakeholders perceived as being plausible and relevant. Stakeholder responses to the process were positive, though also reflected the compromises made during the codesign process. Research needs were largely met, though initial expectations likely exceeded what could reasonably be elicited from a stakeholder group in one day. Our experiences highlight the importance of process design and how selection of scenario development techniques should follow from the project objectives, problem context, and stakeholder preferences for engagement activities. The use of a codesign framework that recognizes the challenges involved and engages stakeholders in the design process can act as a shared learning experience and contribute to greater effectiveness and impact for participatory social-ecological scenario processes.

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Context Antimicrobial resistant bacteria (AMRB) are transmitted from animals to humans and vice versa through many pathways, and AMRB has been an issue on farms and in food production systems. Aims The aim of this exploratory study was to understand what preventative measures farmers may or may not be using to decrease human and animal exposure to AMRB in Central Michigan, and develop a set of measures for biosecurity behaviours. Methods Participants selected for the study were involved in commercial animal husbandry in central Michigan. Data from farmers were collected via a mixed methods approach. Semistructured interviews and a structured questionnaire were administered, based on the theory of planned behaviour. Data were analysed using Spearman’s rank correlation and thematic analyses. Key results There were no associations between sex, level of education or personal income with biosecurity beliefs or behaviours. There was a positive correlation between farm revenue and the presence of pests in animal holding areas, and how often farmers quarantine new animals before adding them to their herd or flock. The farmers interviewed had increased perceived control over implementing biosecurity measures that are perceived as simple and fast to implement. Conclusions Generally, the farmers believed they could affect AMRB on their farms, but were not always engaging in biosecurity behaviours. Implications Understanding farmers’ perceptions and beliefs of biosecurity practices may help develop efficient and effective outreach, education and extension services.

Urban forests provide many benefits to residents and may also improve cities’ resilience, the overall capacity to recover from anthropogenic and natural disturbances. Resilience is often considered from an ecological, social, or social-ecological perspective. In this literature review, we synthesize past studies (n = 31) to explore resilience in urban forests and green spaces and to understand how social or ecological perspectives have been considered. We found studies that combine resilience and urban forests have been increasing over time. Definitions of both resilience and urban forests are highly variable, but generally the studies increasingly focus on a social-ecological systems approach. The most common theoretical framework applied to understanding urban forests and resilience is a risk and vulnerability assessment approach. Studies were spread across geographies, with some concentration near major research stations and universities with scientists who specialize in resilience and urban green spaces. As more attention is focused on the role of green infrastructure in contributing to urban resilience, we encourage the adoption of consistent definitions, theories, and indicators.

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Question Resource availability and its influence on tree‐to‐tree interactions are expected to change over the course of forest stand development, but the rarity of long‐term data sets has limited examinations of neighbourhood crowding over extended time periods. How do a history of neighbourhood interactions and population‐level dynamics, including demographic transition, impact long‐term tree growth? Location Natural mature Pinus resinosa‐dominated forest in northern Minnesota, USA. Methods Using a spatially explicit data set of repeated diameter measurements recorded over an 87‐yr period, we modelled the influence of tree‐to‐tree interactions on growth as it varied over time. We also applied maximum likelihood estimation and simulated annealing to examine how inter‐ and intraspecific competition and the relative importance of neighbour size and distance varied over time and with different climatic conditions. Results Crowding had a consistent negative influence on growth, but crowding intensity and importance were dynamic over time and differed between trees that survived the entire study period compared to those that ultimately died. The scaling of neighbour diameter, neighbour distance, and neighbour species (inter‐ vs intraspecific competition) also varied as demographic transition occurred and longer‐lived species assumed greater dominance. Conclusions Given observed relationships with moisture stress (based on precipitation: potential evapotranspiration) and maximum temperature, crowding intensity and importance may increase if temperatures rise in the future and water become more limiting. Long‐term data sets, such as the record examined in this study, have immense value for testing assumptions about stand dynamics, particularly as forests respond to projected shifts in climate and disturbance regimes.

Privately owned woodlands are an important source of timber and ecosystem services in North America and worldwide. Impacts of management on these ecosystems and timber supply from these woodlands are difficult to estimate because complex behavioral theory informs the owner’s management decisions. The decision-making environment consists of exogenous market factors, internal cognitive processes, and social interactions with fellow landowners, foresters, and other rural community members. This study seeks to understand how social interactions, information flow, and peer-to-peer networks influence timber harvesting behavior using an agent-based model. This theoretical model includes forested polygons in various states of ‘harvest readiness’ and three types of agents: forest landowners, foresters, and peer leaders (individuals trained in conservation who use peer-to-peer networking). Agent rules, interactions, and characteristics were parameterized with values from existing literature and an empirical survey of forest landowner attitudes, intentions, and demographics. The model demonstrates that as trust in foresters and peer leaders increases, the percentage of the forest that is harvested sustainably increases. Furthermore, peer leaders can serve to increase landowner trust in foresters. Model output and equations will inform forest policy and extension/outreach efforts. The model also serves as an important testing ground for new theories of landowner decision making and behavior.