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Older adults presenting to the emergency department (ED) are at high risk of adverse health outcomes. This study aimed to evaluate the accuracy of 4 frequently used screening instruments for the prediction of adverse health outcomes among older adults in the ED.Methods: This was a prospective cohort study in patients 70 years of age presenting to the ED in 2 hospitals in the Netherlands. Screening instruments included the acutely presenting older patient screening program (APOP) (providing 2 risk scores-functional decline [APOP1] and mortality [APOP2]), the International Resident Assessment Instrument Emergendy Department screener (InterRAI ED), the Identification of Seniors At Risk-Hospitalized Patients (ISAR-HP), and the safety management system (VMS). The primary outcome measure was a composite outcome encompassing functional decline, institutionalization, and mortality at 3 months after ED presentation. Other follow-up time points were 1 and 6 months. Analyses were performed to assess prognostic accuracy.Results: In total, 889 patients were included. After 3 months, 267 (31%) patients experienced at least 1 adverse outcome. The positive likelihood ratio ranged from 1.67 (VMS) to 3.33 (APOP1), and the negative likelihood ratio ranged from 0.41 (ISAR-HP) to 0.88 (APOP2). Sensitivity ranged from 17% (APOP2) to 74% (ISAR-HP), and specificity ranged from 63% (ISAR-HP) to 94% (APOP2). The area under the curve ranged from 0.62 (APOP2) to 0.72 (APOP1 and ISAR-HP). Calibration was reasonable for APOP1 and VMS. The prognostic accuracy was comparable across all outcomes and at all follow-up time points. Conclusion:The frailty screening instruments assessed in this study showed poor to moderate prognostic accuracy, which brings into question their usability in the prediction of adverse health outcomes among older adults who present to the ED.

Background Physical activity may be both a risk and protective factor for falls and fall-related fractures. Despite its positive effects on muscle and bone health, physical activity also increases exposure to situations where falls and fractures occur. This paradox could possibly be explained by frailty status. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the associations between physical activity and both falls and fractures, and to determine whether frailty modifies the association of physical activity with falls, and fractures. Methods Data of 311 community-dwelling participants aged 75 years or older from the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam, who participated in a three-year longitudinal study with five nine-monthly measurements between 2015/2016 and 2018/2019. Their mean age was 81.1 (SD 4.8) years and frailty was present in 30.9% of the participants. Physical activity in minutes per day was objectively assessed with an inertial sensor (Actigraph) for seven consecutive days. Falls and fractures were assessed every nine months using self-report during an interview over a follow-up period of three years. Frailty was determined at baseline using the frailty index. Associations were estimated using longitudinal logistic regression analyses based on generalized estimating equations. Results No association between physical activity and falls was found (OR = 1.00, 95% CI: 0.99–1.00). Fall risk was higher in frail compared to non-frail adults (OR = 2.21, 95% CI: 1.33–3.68), but no effect modification was seen of frailty on the association between physical activity and falls. Also no relation between physical activity and fractures was found (OR = 1.00, 95% CI: 0.99–1.01). Fracture risk was higher in frail compared to non-frail adults (OR = 2.81, 95% CI: 1.02–7.75), but also no effect modification of frailty was present in the association between physical activity and fractures. Conclusions No association between physical activity and neither falls nor fractures was found, and frailty appeared not to be an effect modifier. However, frailty was a risk factor for falls and fractures in this population of older adults. Our findings suggest that physical activity can be safely recommended in non-frail and frail populations for general health benefits, without increasing the risk of falls.

Purpose Older adults at the emergency department (ED) with polypharmacy, comorbidity, and frailty are at risk of adverse health outcomes. We investigated the association of polypharmacy with adverse health outcomes, in relation to comorbidity and frailty. Methods This is a prospective cohort study in ED patients  ≥ 70 years. Non-polypharmacy was defined as 0–4 medications, polypharmacy 5–9 and excessive polypharmacy ≥ 10. Comorbidity was classified by the Charlson comorbidity index (CCI). Frailty was defined by the Identification of Seniors At Risk—Hospitalized Patients (ISAR-HP) score. The primary outcome was 3-month mortality. Secondary outcomes were readmission to an ED/hospital ward and a self-reported fall < 3 months. The association between polypharmacy, comorbidity and frailty was analyzed by logistic regression. Results 881 patients were included. 43% had polypharmacy and 18% had excessive polypharmacy. After 3 months, 9% died, 30% were readmitted, and 21% reported a fall. Compared with non-polypharmacy, the odds ratio (OR) for mortality ranged from 2.62 (95% CI 1.39–4.93) in patients with polypharmacy to 3.92 (95% CI 1.95–7.90) in excessive polypharmacy. The OR weakened after adjustment for comorbidity: 1.80 (95% CI 0.92–3.52) and 2.32 (95% CI 1.10–4.90). After adjusting for frailty, the OR weakened to 2.10 (95% CI 1.10–4.00) and OR 2.40 (95% CI 1.15–5.02). No significant association was found for readmission or self-reported fall. Conclusions Polypharmacy is common in older patients at the ED. Polypharmacy, and especially excessive polypharmacy, is associated with an increased risk of mortality. The observed association is complex given the confounding effect of comorbidity and frailty.

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Frailty is an age-related clinical state associated with deterioration across multiple physiological systems and a leading cause of morbidity and mortality later in life. To understand how frailty develops and what causes its progression, longitudinal data with repeated frailty measurements are required. This review summarizes evidence from longitudinal studies on frailty trajectories, transitions, and trends. We identified several consistent findings: frailty increases with aging and is a dynamic condition, and more recent generations of older adults have higher frailty levels. These findings have both clinical and public health relevance, including the provision of health-and aged care services in the coming years. Further studies are required, particularly those conducted in low-and middleincome countries and those investigating factors associated with changes in frailty. The latter may help develop better-targeted interventions to reverse or slow the progression of frailty.

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Background Aging metrics incorporating cognitive and physical function are not fully understood, hampering their utility in research and clinical practice. This study aimed to determine the proportions of vulnerable persons identified by three existing aging metrics that incorporate cognitive and physical function and the associations of the three metrics with mortality. Methods We considered three existing aging metrics including the combined presence of cognitive impairment and physical frailty (CI-PF), the frailty index (FI), and the motoric cognitive risk syndrome (MCR). We operationalized them using data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) and the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Logistic regression models or Cox proportional hazards regression models, and receiver operating characteristic curves were used to examine the associations of the three metrics with mortality. Results In CHARLS, the proportions of vulnerable persons identified by CI-PF, FI, and MCR were 2.2, 16.6, and 19.6%, respectively. Each metric predicted mortality after adjustment for age and sex, with some variations in the strength of the associations (CI-PF, odds ratio (OR) (95% confidence interval (CI)) 2.87 (1.74–4.74); FI, OR (95% CI) 1.94 (1.50–2.50); MCR, OR (95% CI) 1.27 (1.00–1.62)). CI-PF and FI had additional predictive utility beyond age and sex, as demonstrated by integrated discrimination improvement and continuous net reclassification improvement (all P < 0.001). These results were replicated in NHANES. Conclusions Despite the inherent differences in the aging metrics incorporating cognitive and physical function, they consistently capture mortality risk. The findings support the incorporation of cognitive and physical function for risk stratification in both Chinese and US persons, but call for caution when applying them in specific study settings.