; Šikoparija, Branko; Weryszko-Chmielewska, Elżbieta; Bullock, James M. 2016. Modelling the introduction and spread of non-native species: international trade and climate change drive ragweed invasion. Global Change Biology, 22 (9). 3067-3079. 10.1111/gcb.13220 Contact CEH NORA team at noraceh@ceh.ac.ukThe NERC and CEH trademarks and logos ('the Trademarks') are registered trademarks of NERC in the UK and other countries, and may not be used without the prior written consent of the Trademark owner. Accepted ArticleThis article has been accepted for publication and undergone full peer review but has not been through the copyediting, typesetting, pagination and proofreading process, which may lead to differences between this version and the Version of Record. Please cite this article as doi: 10.1111/gcb.13220 This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. Running-title:Integrating introduction and spread in the modelling of invasion AbstractBiological invasions are a major driver of global change, for which models can attribute causes, assess impacts and guide management. However, invasion models typically focus on spread from known introduction points or non-native distributions and ignore the transport processes by which species

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The objective of this study was to analyse the dynamics of the Alnus and Corylus pollen seasons in Poland with reference to spatial and seasonal differentiation. Aerobiological monitoring was performed in 10 cities, in 1994-2007. Five characteristics defining the pollen season were considered: 1. beginning and end dates of the season phases (5, 25, 50, 75, 95% of annual totals), 2. pollen season duration (90% method), 3. skewness and 4. kurtosis of airborne pollen curves, and 5. annual pollen totals. The beginning of the Corylus pollen season in Warsaw started on the 53rd day of a year. The Alnus pollen season started 9.5 days (SE = 1.4) later. The start of the season for both taxa was delayed by 3.3 (SE = 0.5) days for each 100 km towards the east. The Corylus pollen season lasted about 15 days longer than the Alnus season. Season duration for both taxa decreased towards the east by 3.5 days (SE = 0.7) and towards the north by 1.3 days (SE = 0.6) for each 100 km. Seasonal dynamics of both taxa are skewed to the right. In cities located west of Warsaw the dynamics are more skewed (except at Szczecin, Wroclaw). Asymmetry decreases towards the east by 0.16/100 km. Almost all kurtosis values of pollen-season dynamics were positive and higher for Alnus. Kurtosis values for both taxa increase together with delay of the pollen season beginning by 4% per day (p \ 0.0001). Mean pollen total increases: for Corylus mainly towards the north (by 64%/100 km), for Alnus mainly towards the west (by 15%/100 km). Geographical location (longitude and latitude) determines: the start and duration of the pollen season, skewness of the pollen curve, and annual totals.

Studies on Ambrosia pollen concentrations were carried out in Lublin in the period [1995][1996][1997][1998][1999][2000][2001][2002][2003][2004]. The effects of a number of meteorological factors were analysed. In the first period of the study, the gravimetric method was used (1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999), while in the second period, the volumetric method was applied. The results show an increasing trend in the amount of airborne pollen. The Ambrosia pollen season in Lublin lasts from August to October. Over a period of 5 years, the highest number of pollen grains was recorded in September (53%), followed by August (44%) and October (3%). There were wide variations in annual totals. The annual total pollen counts was 167-1180 grains, with the peak value in 2002. Maximum daily pollen concentrations (56-312 pollen grains m )3 ) were recorded in the first half of August and in the first half of September. On the days when high Ambrosia pollen concentrations occurred, the temperature was above 21°C and the winds were mainly from the southeast, south and east. Maximum intradiurnal concentrations of pollen grains occurred in the afternoon hours. These results indicate, to some degree, that Ambrosia pollen is transported for long distances before descent.

The aim of the study was to determine the characteristics of temporal and space–time autocorrelation of pollen counts of Alnus, Betula, and Corylus in the air of eight cities in Poland. Daily average pollen concentrations were monitored over 8 years (2001–2005 and 2009–2011) using Hirst-designed volumetric spore traps. The spatial and temporal coherence of data was investigated using the autocorrelation and cross-correlation functions. The calculation and mathematical modelling of 61 correlograms were performed for up to 25 days back. The study revealed an association between temporal variations in Alnus, Betula, and Corylus pollen counts in Poland and three main groups of factors such as: (1) air mass exchange after the passage of a single weather front (30–40 % of pollen count variation); (2) long-lasting factors (50–60 %); and (3) random factors, including diurnal variations and measurements errors (10 %). These results can help to improve the quality of forecasting models.

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The seedlings of the soybean (Glycine max. (L.) Merr.) cv. Polan were investigated by subjecting them to water culture for a period of 14 d. To the Knop nutrient solution, lead was added as PbCl2 at four concentrations: 0, 10, 20 and 40 mg dm−3. Observations of soybean leaf tissues were carried out by light microscopy, transmission electron microscopy and scanning electron microscopy. The Pb levels used in the present study reduced the area of cotyledons and leaf blades of the soybean plants. Pb‐induced changes in the leaf epidermis structure involved a reduction in the cell size, more abundant wax coating, and an increase in the number of stomata and trichomes per unit area with simultaneous reduction in the size of the guard cells. The lead treatment resulted in the reduction in the thickness of the leaf blades, reduction in the area of xylem and phloem in the vascular bundles and in the diameter of the xylem vessels. Under Pb stress, the leaf mesophyll cells were characterized by the presence of altered chloroplasts with a reduced lamellar system and multidirectional pattern of the thylakoid system. Burst stroma of the thylakoid system and cracked chloroplast envelopes were also observed. The importance of the increase in the number of stomata and trichomes for plants under the metal stress was examined.

Birch pollen grains are one of the most important groups of atmospheric biological particles that induce allergic processes. The fluctuation pattern of birch pollen seasons in selected cities of Poland is presented. Measurements were performed by the volumetric method (Burkard and Lanzoni 2000 pollen samplers). The distributions of the data were not normal (Shapiro–Wilk test) and statistical error risk was estimated at a significance level of <em>α</em> = 0.05. Pollen season was defined as the period in which 95% of the annual total catch occurred. The linear trend for the selected features of the pollen season, skewness, kurtosis and coefficient of variation (<em>V</em>%) were also analyzed. During the 12–14 years of study, the beginnings of birch pollen seasons were observed 7–14 days earlier, the ends were noted 5–10 days earlier, and the days with maximum values occurred 7–14 days earlier compared to the long-term data. The left-skewed distribution of the pollen season starts in most sampling sites confirms the short-lasting occurrence of pollen in the air. The threat of birch pollen allergens was high during the pollen seasons. If vegetation is highly diverse, flowering and pollen release are extended in time, spread over different weeks and occur at different times of the day. Flowering time and pollen release are affected by insolation, convection currents, wind, and turbulence. Therefore, pollen seasons are characterized by great inter-annual variability.