Background-Inflammation variables (C-reactive protein [CRP], fibrinogen, and soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1[sICAM-1]) have been identified as risk factors for cardiovascular disease. It is still not known how much the regulation of inflammatory risk factors is determined by genetic factors, and the aim of this study was to determine the heritability of these inflammation variables and of the acute phase regulating cytokines interleukin-6 (IL-6) and tumor necrosis factor-␣ (TNF-␣) at older ages. Methods and Results-The heritability of CRP, fibrinogen, sICAM-1, IL-6, and TNF-␣ was determined in a twin study consisting of 129 monozygotic twin pairs and 153 dizygotic same-sex twins aged 73 to 94 years who participated in the Longitudinal Study of Aging of Danish Twins. Furthermore, we determined the influence of selected genetic polymorphisms on the plasma level variations. Genetic factors accounted for 20% to 55% of the variation in plasma levels of the inflammation variables. The highest heritability was found for sICAM-1. The genetic polymorphisms we studied explained only a small, insignificant part of the heritability. Conclusions-This study in elderly twins provides evidence for a substantial genetic component of inflammatory cardiovascular risk factors among the elderly.
RYGB improves HRQoL, but does not increase PA. Supervised physical training intervention improves general health 24 months after RYGB and tends to improve certain domains of PA right after the intervention period, but fails to increase the patients' overall PA level over time. Clinical Trial Registration Registered at ClinicalTrials.gov-no. NCT01690728.
Aims
There is debate about the optimum algorithm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. We conducted head-to-head comparisons of four algorithms recommended by primary prevention guidelines, before and after “re-calibration”, a method that adapts risk algorithms to take account of differences in the risk characteristics of the populations being studied.
Methods and Results
Using individual-participant data on 360,737 participants without CVD at baseline in 86 prospective studies from 22 countries, we compared the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE), and Reynolds Risk Score (RRS). We calculated measures of risk discrimination and calibration, and modelled clinical implications of initiating statin therapy in people judged to be at “high” 10-year CVD risk. Original risk algorithms were re-calibrated using the risk factor profile and CVD incidence of target populations. The four algorithms had similar risk discrimination. Before re-calibration, FRS, SCORE and PCE over-predicted CVD risk on average by 10%, 52%, and 41%, respectively, while RRS under-predicted by 10%. Original versions of algorithms classified 29-39% of individuals aged ≥40 years as high-risk. By contrast, re-calibration reduced this proportion to 22-24% for every algorithm. We estimated that to prevent one CVD event, it would be necessary to initiate statin therapy in 44-51 such individuals using original algorithms, in contrast to 37-39 individuals with re-calibrated algorithms.
Conclusion
Before re-calibration, the clinical performance of four widely used CVD risk algorithms varied substantially. By contrast, simple re-calibration nearly equalised their performance and improved modelled targeting of preventive action to clinical need.
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