Summary1. Matrix population models capture how variation in vital rates among life stages translates to population dynamics. Analyses of these models generally assume that populations have reached a stable stage distribution (SSD), where the proportion of individuals in each stage remains constant. However, when life stages respond differentially to environmental cues and perturbations, a population may be moved away from equilibrium. Given the multitude of stochastic processes acting in natural systems, populations may never be exactly at SSD. It is thus critical to understand how far away populations are from SSD and how distance from SSD influences near-term model projections. 2. We analysed published matrix models from 46 plant species spanning a range of life histories that reported both a current stage distribution and projection matrix. We examined the distance between observed and theoretical SSD and the associated consequences for near-term transient population dynamics for each species. 3. In the majority of studies, populations were near their expected SSD, with 80% falling within one unit of a projection distance (a 0 ) of zero. This distribution was skewed towards positive values of a 0 , indicating that the majority of populations had individuals concentrated into stages with high reproductive values. 4. Half of the populations in our survey had projection distances such that transient projections of population size and growth rate were within 10% of asymptotic projections at 5 years. However, in populations where projection distance was > 2, deviations from SSD caused important (more than twofold) differences. 5. We also found that larger deviations from SSD were positively correlated with generation time and matrix size. 6. Synthesis. When some life stages within a plant population are more strongly affected by disturbances or stresses than others, the results of our literature survey suggest that equilibrium projections will tend to underestimate projections that account for the current stage distribution. Measuring the current stage distribution can help determine whether asymptotic measures of matrix model analyses are reliable, and is a crucial step to take when precise population metrics are necessary for guiding conservation and management.
Summary1. Heavy herbivory by ungulates can substantially alter habitat, but the indirect consequences of habitat modification for animal assemblages that rely on that habitat are not well studied. This is a particularly important topic given that climate change can alter plant-herbivore interactions. 2. We explored short-term responses of small mammal communities to recent exclusion of Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus) in high-elevation riparian drainages in northern Arizona, where elk impacts on vegetation have increased over the past quarter century associated with climate change. We used 10-ha elk exclosures paired with unfenced control drainages to examine how browsing influenced the habitat use, relative abundance, richness and diversity of a small mammal assemblage. 3. We found that the small mammal assemblage changed significantly after 5 years of elk exclusion. Relative abundance of voles (Microtus mexicanus) increased in exclosure drainages, likely due to an increase in habitat quality. The relative abundances of woodrats (Neotoma neomexicana) and two species of mice (Peromyscus maniculatus and P. boylii) decreased in the controls, while remaining stable in exclosures. The decline of mice in control drainages was likely due to the decline in shrub cover that they use. Thus, elk exclusion may have maintained or improved habitat for mice inside the exclosures while habitat quality and mouse abundance both declined outside the fences. Finally, small mammal species richness increased in the exclosures relative to the controls while species diversity showed no significant trends. 4. Together, our results show that relaxation of heavy herbivore pressure by a widespread native ungulate can lead to rapid changes in small mammal assemblages. Moreover, exclusion of large herbivores can yield rapid responses by vegetation that may enhance or maintain habitat quality for small mammal populations.
Resource managers increasingly seek to implement cost-effective watershed restoration plans for multiple ecosystem service benefits. Using locally adapted ecosystem service tools and historical management costs, we quantified spatially explicit management costs and benefits (in terms of groundwater recharge and landscape flammability) to assist a state agency in evaluating cobenefits for a predefined restoration scenario (focused on biodiversity benefits) and to prioritize an expanded restoration scenario in the state-managed Pu'u Wa'awa'a watershed (Hawai'i) now and under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 midcentury climate scenario. Restoring all available areas increases recharge by ~1.74 million m 3 /yr (5% of recharge over the entire watershed) under the current climate and does not meaningfully change recharge under RCP 8.5 midcentury, whereas climate change decreases recharge by ~50%. For landscape flammability, climate change increases the median and maximum probability of fire occurrence across all land use scenarios, and full restoration results in the greatest reduction in landscape flammability under both current and RCP 8.5 midcentury climate scenarios. We demonstrate that location and type of forest restoration influence overall cost-effectiveness of restoration, providing insights for landscape planning for ecosystem services under a limited budget. Across all scenarios, capturing potential benefits at low elevations requires greater expenditures ($13,161/ ha) than at high elevations ($5,501/ ha) due mainly to the substantial costs of removing Pennisetum setaceum (fountain grass), the dominant land cover below 1,000 m. If management focuses on groundwater recharge only, the most cost-effective areas occur at high elevations (>1,000 m), with ample fog interception, although recharge benefits decline across the landscape under RCP 8.5 midcentury. Focusing instead on cost-effective landscape flammability reduction as the primary management objective shifts emphasis toward dry low-elevation areas under the current climate. However, under the RCP 8.5 midcentury scenario, the most cost-effective areas for flammability management shift toward higher elevations with greater potential overlap with recharge benefits.
Tropical dry forests are among the most threatened ecosystems in the world. Rapid loss, degradation and fragmentation of these native ecosystems in a changing climate have driven a time‐sensitive need to improve our understanding and management of remaining dry forests. We used advanced remote sensing technologies, combined with extensive field data and machine learning, to better understand how spatial drivers (e.g. climate, fire, human) of canopy species composition vary in importance and correlate with forest cover (total, native and non‐native), within an endangered Hawaiian tropical dry forest. Past introductions of non‐native, drought‐tolerant tree species into this Hawaiian dry forest have created a new forest canopy composition and a loss of native forest biodiversity and connectivity at the landscape scale. Synthesis and applications. Our findings help to spatially visualize the loss and transition of native Hawaiian forests and provide a new conservation planning tool. Conservation and restoration efforts can now be informed by spatial maps of canopy composition, connectivity and determinants of forest cover for the region. For example, our models identified a climatic transition zone between 800 and 1,000 m where native forests exist in high densities, and non‐native forests are not yet dominant. This area may be optimal for cost‐effective conservation and targeted management. Ecosystems are changing globally at unprecedented rates. The methods presented in this study provide a framework that can be adapted to monitor these changes around the world.
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