The rationale of this paper is to investigate peoples' perception of climate variability, climate change and drought frequency and compare it with measurements of rainfall variability and anomalies in northern Ethiopia. Statistical analysis of rainfall chronologies was performed and contrasted with qualitative data collected through a survey and questionnaires. Fieldwork studies showed that local authorities, farmers and pastoralists perceived regional climate to have changed during the last few decades. Farmers explained that they have been changing their farming strategies by shifting to more drought-resistant crops as well as to a shorter agricultural calendar. They attributed this to a loss of the spring rains since 'their father's time' (20-30 yr ago), as well as a shorter main summer wet period. The recent 2002 drought appears to have confirmed peoples' perceptions that there has been a shift in climate towards more unfavourable conditions. However, rainfall measurements do not show a downward trend in rainfall. Reasons for divergence between perceptions and rainfall measurements were explored. Some can be associated with changes in peoples' need for rainfall or be linked to various environmental changes which cause reduced water availability. Others can be related to the paucity of available daily data in a dense station network which could better support peoples' perceptions of change. In exploring these reasons, focus was given to the disagreement between optimal rainfall (i.e. amount and distribution sufficient for crop or pasture growth) and normal rainfall (i.e. the long-term statistical mean and its variation).
KEY WORDS: Climate change · Rainfall · Perceptions · EthiopiaResale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisher
Climate change will affect the insurance industry. We develop a Bayesian hierarchical statistical approach to explain and predict insurance losses due to weather events at a local geographic scale. The number of weather-related insurance claims is modelled by combining generalized linear models with spatially smoothed variable selection. Using Gibbs sampling and reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, this model is fitted on daily weather and insurance data from each of the 319 municipalities which constitute southern and central Norway for the period 1997–2006. Precise out-of-sample predictions validate the model. Our results show interesting regional patterns in the effect of different weather covariates. In addition to being useful for insurance pricing, our model can be used for short-term predictions based on weather forecasts and for long-term predictions based on downscaled climate models.
The aim of this study is to explore the way climate creates thresholds within society. Both human physiology and the human mind determine when and where climate can trigger and influence human activities. By presenting a stimulus-response model, deliberate weather-and climate-related decisions (e.g. migration, clothing) and physiological responses in daily life (e.g. sweating) are placed in a broader theoretical context. While physiological thresholds can be described quantitatively to a certain extent, subjective thresholds may be illustrated in a predominantly qualitative manner through surrogates (surveys on wants or needs). Examples from the literature on climate thresholds for humans highlight the complexity of the issue: People have different thresholds, as they do not necessarily respond to the same stimuli in the same way. At the same time, given the same stimulus, an individual may perceive it, and thus react, differently at different times in their life. In many cases, the threshold rather specifies a bandwidth or transition zone than a particular point. The level of acceptance and the cultural, technological and genetic aspects of adaptation will decide how climate may influence human well-being and contribute in setting limits to society, for example where to live, what impacts to expect, and when and what decisions to take. Knowledge of the complexity of human thresholds can be an important supplement to the analysis of peoples' vulnerability to climate change. When populations are vulnerable and thresholds are exceeded, only then will there be a measurable response.
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