We investigated reproductive ecology and cub survival of Florida black bears (Ursus americanus floridanus) in Ocala National Forest and the adjacent residential area of Lynne, Florida, USA, 1999. We documented production of 81 cubs from 39 litters. Average litter size was 2.08 6 0.11 (SE) cubs. The mean age of first reproduction was 3.25 6 0.27 years. Excluding females that reproduced in consecutive years due to litter loss, interlitter interval was 2.11 6 0.11 years. The mean annual fecundity rate was 0.57 6 0.06. We used expandable radiocollars to monitor the fate of 41 bear cubs. The probability of cubs surviving to 9 months of age was 0.46 6 0.09 and did not differ between cohorts or study locations. The most important causes of cub mortality included infanticide and mortality caused directly or indirectly by collisions with vehicles. Our results indicate that reproductive rates of female black bears in the Ocala study area are comparable to those reported for other black bear populations from eastern United States, but cub survival rates are lower than those reported for most black bear populations. Management of Florida black bears should emphasize strategies to reduce the mortality of cubs. (JOURNAL OF WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT 71 (3):720-727; 2007)

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Fear of predators can behaviorally mediate prey population dynamics, particularly when predation risk influences reproductive investment. However, the costs of reproductive investment may mitigate predation risk aversion relative to periods when the link between reproductive output and prey behavior is weaker. We posit that intensity of reproductive investment in ungulates may predict their response to predation risk such that the sexes increase risk exposure during biological seasons that are pivotal to reproductive success, such as the fawn‐rearing and breeding seasons for females and males, respectively. We examined the activity patterns of sympatric white‐tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), a sexually segregated polygynous ungulate, and Florida panthers (Puma concolor coryi) in the context of the “risky times – risky places hypothesis” and the reproductive strategy hypothesis. We compared detection rates and diel activity overlap of both species using motion‐triggered camera traps positioned on (n = 120) and off (n = 60) anthropogenic trails across five reproductive seasons. Florida panthers were nocturnal and primarily observed on‐trail providing an experimental framework with risky times and risky places. Contrary to studies in other taxa inversely correlating prey reproductive investment to predation risk, the sexes of deer were more risk prone during sex‐specific seasons associated with intense reproductive investment. Our results suggest spatiotemporally variable predation risk influences sex‐specific behavioral decision‐making in deer such that reproductive success is maximized.

Understanding the factors influencing recruitment in animal populations is an important objective of many research and conservation programmes. However, evaluating hypotheses is challenging because recruitment is the outcome of birth and survival processes that are difficult to directly observe. Capture–recapture is the most general framework for estimating recruitment in the presence of observation error, but existing methods ignore the underlying birth and survival processes, as well as age effects and spatial variation in vital rates. We present an individual‐based, spatio‐temporal model that can be fit to capture–recapture data to draw inferences on the birth and survival processes governing recruitment dynamics. The number, dates, and spatial distribution of births are modelled as outcomes of a point process, and survival is modelled using a failure time approach. Survival parameters can be modelled as functions of individuals traits and time‐varying, spatial covariates. Continuous‐ and discrete‐time formulations are possible. We demonstrate the model using 7 months of camera data collected on white‐tailed deer Odocoileus virginianus fawns in Big Cypress National Preserve. Spot patterns were used to individually identify 28 fawns, detected 1,454 times between December 1, 2015 and July 1, 2016. A total of 37 (95% CI: 30–49) fawns were born, of which 16 (95% CI: 10–23) survived 180 days to the recruitment age. Mean parturition date was February 14 (95% CI: February 6–February 22), much earlier than in more temperate parts of the species’ range, but coinciding with the dry season in southern Florida. We found little evidence that mortality rates decreased with age, but the estimate of the age effect was imprecise. In contrast, we found strong evidence that encounter rates were age‐specific and increased rapidly over the first month of life as fawns became more mobile. Our case study demonstrates the potential of this new model for advancing knowledge of spatial population dynamics by providing insights into the birth and juvenile survival processes that influence recruitment. Because the model can be applied to data from noninvasive survey methods such as camera trapping, it is possible to apply it at broad spatial scales to understand how environmental variables and predator communities influence recruitment.