The subject matter of the study is the processes of planning supply logistics taking into account swings in demand and prices for products. The goal is to develop models and applied information technology for managing enterprise supplies taking into consideration the unforeseen demand swings. The following tasks were solved: a process model of supply logistics was developed, a model for forecasting demand for products was developed, a model for calculating the optimal volume of orders for various demand options was developed, the structure and modules of the applied information technology for supply logistics management was developed. The following methods were used: structural process models, methods for regression analysis and time series forecasting, inventory management models, STATISTICA software package, object-oriented programming methods. The following results were obtained: the generalized pattern of supply logistics was developed; the supplement of the first block of this pattern with the processes of marketing research of demand for products and planning supply volumes according to the forecasted demand and the probability of a shortage or surplus of products due to unforeseen swings in demand was substantiated; the application of the methods of regression analysis and forecasting of time series to assess the market factors of supply logistics was considered; the model for determining the optimal stock size was studied taking into account storage costs and probable shortages; the architecture of the applied information technology for planning supply logistics was developed; the proposed IT enables analyzing and predicting changes in the main market factors and, in accordance with the results obtained, solving inventory management tasks efficiently. In this case, the deficit and backordered demand can be taken into account. The operation of IT modules was illustrated by a test case. Conclusions. The use of IT is efficient in making decisions on logistics planning of business processes, as well as in analyzing the efficiency of logistics for a certain period of time. Further, the specified technology is going to be supplemented with the capabilities of solving inventory logistics problems.
Innovative technologies and scientific solutions for industries. 2017. No. 2 (2) METHODS OF MANAGING TRAFFIC DISTRIBUTION IN INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION NETWORKS OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE SYSTEMSThe subject matter of the article is information and communication networks (ICN) of critical infrastructure systems (CIS). The goal of the work is to create methods for managing the data flows and resources of the ICN of CIS to improve the efficiency of information processing. The following tasks were solved in the article: the data flow model of multi-level ICN structure was developed, the method of adaptive distribution of data flows was developed, the method of network resource assignment to multi-server nodes was developed. The following methods used are -methods of mathematical statistics for random processes, the theory of queuing systems, methods of optimization theory and operations research. The following results were obtained -the principles of managing the distribution of network traffic in the ICN of CIS were formulated and the practical requirements arising in the efficiency of data transmission were determined. The possible approaches to the formulation and solution of the listed problems were suggested according to the developed general approach to network management. The multi-level information structure was investigated. The mathematical model of data flows of a multilevel information structure of the network was developed; it has a three-level unstratified structure and consists of a number of subnets and groups of nodes. The method for adaptive management of data flows distribution was developed; this method includes the stratified two-level management which is based on the development of a multidimensional space of the network state and management parameters taking into account user activities. The management is carried out at the first level by setting the basic parameters of the network, at the second -by operational management with constant basic parameters. The method for distributing the resources of a multi-server information processing node was developed, as server systems are considered as a set of single-line queuing systems and information about the distribution of the bandwidth of communication channels is used. Conclusions: using the method of the adaptive management of traffic distribution enables reducing the time for processing system transactions and total costs for maintenance. The use of the method resource distribution of the server node in the course of reengineering CIS processes minimizes the costs of servicing the data flows.
The subjects of research in the article are programs and projects for the development of transport infrastructure with the allocation of the logistics system. The purpose is to develop a systematic representation of the process of development of a logistic transport system, taking into account the goals of the transport infrastructure development program. The following tasks are solved in the article: systematization of the goals and objectives of the transport infrastructure development program, analysis of the features of the logistic transport system and processes of its development management, development of a generalized formalized presentation of the logistic transport system and the process of its development. To solve these problems, we use methods of system analysis, set theory, hypercomplex matrices. The following results were obtained. The principles of sustainable development of transport infrastructure are analyzed. The article presents the systematization of the goals and objectives of the transport infrastructure development program and outlines the basic principles of its sustainable development. The tasks of development of the logistic system in the transport infrastructure of the country are considered. A logistic transport system is presented in the form of a graph, where vertices are its elements and connections are information and material flows. When determining the acceptable level of the parameter of development of the logistics transport system, such types of coordination problems arise when making management decisions, such as integral, deterministic and range. In a formalized form, the logistic transport system is presented as a set of system invariants that determine its properties: complexity, dynamism and structural. There are three phases of uncertainty change taking into account the development of the system. The hypercomplex matrix of the system allows you to define its elements and their connections. Conclusions: The analysis of the research subject revealed that the issues related to the choice of system concept and methodological tools for the formation of distributed logistics infrastructure remain unsettled, and the problems of transport infrastructure of Ukraine are highlighted. Based on the proposed graph analytic representation of the logistic transport system, it is possible to analyze its structure.
The subject matter of the article is the processes of analysis and risk assessment of information and telecommunications networks. The aim is to reduce the potential losses caused by the risks of information and telecommunications network (ITN) functioning by taking timely risk management measures. The objectives are: classification of ITN risks, highlighting the main factors and causes of their occurrence; formation of a systematic presentation of risks to identify their manifestation and consequences; development of the method for assessing the influence of the risk and private risk on probable consequences; obtaining a quantitative risk assessment of ITN. The methods used are: system analysis of risks, method of cognitive maps, cause-and-effect analysis. The following results are obtained: classification of private risks of ITN according to the reasons and the factors of their occurrence is made; the negative consequences affecting the basic characteristics of the operation of ITN are defined; as a result, the structural system model of ITN risks is formed, in which the relationships between the elements of the main aspects of risk are shown; the method based on the theory of causal analysis is suggested in order to quantify the risk impact on ITN functioning. The risk model is based on the construction and analysis of probabilistic or fuzzy cognitive maps. Experts estimate the level of influence of private risks on the characteristics of the network in order to make decisions on risk management. The generalized structure of the cause-effect diagram of the risk factors, manifestation and consequences is developed; on ITN basis the method for quantifying the probability of risk consequences is suggested. The quantitative assessment of probable malfunctioning of the network that is determined by a specific effect (taking into account ITN probability), which is caused by private risks is also made. Conclusion.The suggested approach for quantitative assessment of ITN risk is based on the method of cause-and-effect analysis and enables taking into account both the factors causing it and probable consequences. The obtained results can be used to determine probable failures and losses in ITN functioning on the basis of the information about the degree of risk factors effects, risk events and consequences, and the cause-effect relationships between them. Thus, potential losses can be identified; measures to manage the risks of ITN functioning can be taken. K e ywor d s : information-telecommunication network, risk factors, consequences, cause-effect diagram, influence factors.
The subject of the research is the basic principles of making the model of managing the production of software and models of development and operation of heterogeneous teams for project management. The objective of the research is to develop the mathematical model representing the operation of heterogeneous teams for project management. The sociometry is used for psychodiagnostic procedures in the course of social and psychological analysis of group relations. This method is directed at determining the structure of interpersonal relations by identifying mutual feelings of frienliness and unfrienliness among the members of groups. The mathematical methods of processing data and information obtained during the sociometric survey lie in calculating mathematical indicators which can be subdivided into group and individual indexes. In the course of the research the following tasks were solved: the requirements for team building and development of models for software implementation were analyzed; the method for analyzing the cohesion of team members was selected; the options for developing the mathematical model representing the principles of building the team which works on the project were considered. Groups different in structure were compared with the help of mathematical processing of statistical data; and correlation procedures were conducted. Individual indexes were defined; among them are: the index of sociometric status which indicates the advantage of any member of the group over other participants; the indexes of positive and negative emotional expansivity; the index of group cohesion; the index of sociometric coherence. The methods used are: statistical and correlation analysis, sociological, Hungarian, mathematical. As a result of the conducted researches the basic principles of making the model of managing software development are shown, mathematical methods of development and operation of heterogeneous teams for project management are suggested. Thus, the goals and objectives of the research are carried out.
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