No abstract

Background Caries risk assessment in preschool children has been limited validated. Aim To validate caries predictive ability of Cariogram using different combinations of factors and settings in preschool children from areas with high caries risk. Design Two to five years old children (N = 175) were examined for caries (cavitated and non‐cavitated lesions), at baseline and after 1 and 2 years. Mutans streptococci counts (MS) and saliva buffer capacity (SBC) were measured with chair side tests. Diet and oral health attitude were assessed through a parental questionnaire. Baseline caries risk was calculated using standard and high‐risk group variables in Cariogram either with nine factors or excluding MS and SBC. Poisson regression models, ROC analysis and information criteria (AIC and BIC), P < 0.05, were used to investigate the predictive ability of Cariograms and to quantify the associations. Results Accuracy of Cariogram was found limited. Cariograms with MS showed higher sensitivity but lower specificity than those without bacterial counts. Standard set Cariograms with MS counts performed slightly better than the other models, but the difference was not statistically significant. Caries prediction with standard and high set Cariograms was also found limited. Conclusions Cariogram with various factors and settings displayed suboptimal ability to predict caries in this population.

Background: Caries risk assessment in preschool children is poorly validated in prospective studies. Aim: To validate the Bangkok checklist (BCL) in predicting caries development in a cohort of preschool children from low and moderate socioeconomic areas and compare it with two established risk assessment tools. Design: We followed 146 preschool children, aged 2-5 years for 2 years. At baseline, the caries risk category (low, moderate, high) was determined with three checklists: (a) BCL, (b) American Academy of Pediatric Dentistry form (CRAF), and (c) CariesManagement By Risk Assessment (CAMBRA). Data were collected from questionnaires and clinical examinations. Caries increment was recorded by counting the number of surfaces that changed from sound to decayed. We used Kendall's tau, Poisson regression models and ROC analysis to assess the predictive ability of the different checklists. Results: Over 50% of the children developed new caries on a yearly basis. The BCL assigned the majority of the children (87%) into the high-risk category. Sensitivity was 88% but specificity was low (16%). Accuracy of BCL was similar to CRAF but inferior to CAMBRA. Conclusions: Bangkok checklist had a very limited performance in accurately predicting future early childhood caries in this population.

Dentists can contribute to a timely and valid identification of HSC disease by correctly differentially diagnosing lesions of head and neck.