An accurate prediction of the compressive strength of masonry is essential both for the analysis of existing structures and the construction of new masonry buildings. Since experimental material testing of individual masonry components (e.g. masonry unit and mortar joints) often produces highly variable results, this paper presents a numerical modelling based approach to address the associated uncertainty for the prediction of the maximum compressive load of masonry prisms.The method considers numerical model to be semi-random for a masonry prism by adopting a Latin Hyper cube simulation method used in conjunction with a parametric finite element model of the individual masonry prism. The proposed method is applied to two types of masonry prisms (using hollow blocks and solid clay bricks), for which experimental testing was conducted as part of the 9th International Masonry Conference held at Guimarães in July 2014. A Class A prediction (presented before the tests were conducted) was generated for the two masonry prisms according to the proposed methodology, and the results were compared to the final experimental testing results. The root mean square deviation of the method for prediction of eccentric compressive strength of both types of prisms differed by only 2.2KN, thereby demonstrates the potential for this probabilistic approach.
The effect of uncertainty on the prediction of building damage due to tunnelling-induced settlement.L'effet de l'incertitude sur la prévision de dommages aux bâtiments causée par la subsidence induite par effet tunneling. ABSTRACT Prediction of the response of buildings to tunnelling-induced settlement for the extent of a tunnel route is a complex task due to the heterogeneous nature of ground conditions, variable tunnelling operations, and unknown building parameters. Consequently, there are generally uncertainties associated with building damage predictions. This paper presents a probabilistic numerical methodology to investigate the effect of uncertainties for the damage prediction of masonry buildings due to tunnelling-induced settlement. The methodology is employed to provide a Class C1 prediction for a previously documented case history. The results demonstrate the uncertainties that have a significant influence in terms of the building response prediction and, furthermore, provide a quantitative risk assessment for masonry buildings due to nearby tunnelling.RÉSUMÉ Prédiction de la réponse des bâtiments à la subsidence induite tunnel pour l'étendue d'un tronçon de tunnel est une tâche complexe en raison de la nature hétérogène des conditions du sol, les opérations de tunneling variables et les paramètres de construction inconnus. Par conséquent, il est généralement d'incertitude associé à des dommages de bâtiments prédictions. Cet article présente une méthodologie numérique probabiliste pour étudier l'effet des incertitudes pour la prédiction de l'endommagement des bâtiments de maçonnerie en raison de la subsidence induit tunnel. La méthodologie est utilisée pour fournir une prédiction de classe C1 pour une histoire de cas précédemment documenté. Les résultats démontrent les incertitudes qui ont une influence significative en termes de prédication de réponse de la construction et, plus-plus, fournir une évaluation quantitative des risques pour les bâtiments de maçonnerie en raison de proximité tunneling
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