21Lemmings are key herbivores in many arctic food webs and their population dynamics have

Vegetation change has consequences for terrestrial ecosystem structure and functioning and may involve climate feedbacks. Hence, when monitoring ecosystem states and changes thereof, the vegetation is often a primary monitoring target. Here, we summarize current understanding of vegetation change in the High Arctic-the World's most rapidly warming region-in the context of ecosystem monitoring. To foster development of deployable monitoring strategies, we categorize different kinds of drivers (disturbances or stresses) of vegetation change either as pulse (i.e. drivers that occur as sudden and short events, though their effects may be long lasting) or press (i.e. drivers where change in conditions remains in place for a prolonged period, or slowly increases in pressure). To account for the great heterogeneity in vegetation responses to climate change and other drivers, we stress the need for increased use of ecosystem-specific conceptual models to guide monitoring and ecological studies in the Arctic. We discuss a conceptual model with three hypothesized alternative vegetation states characterized by mosses, herbaceous plants, and bare ground patches, respectively. We use moss-graminoid tundra of Svalbard as a case study to discuss the documented and potential impacts of different drivers on the possible transitions between those states. Our current understanding points to likely additive effects of herbivores and a warming climate, driving this ecosystem from a moss-dominated state with cool soils, shallow active layer and slow nutrient cycling to an ecosystem with warmer soil, deeper permafrost thaw, and faster nutrient cycling. Herbaceous-dominated vegetation and (patchy) bare ground would present two states in response to those drivers. Conceptual models are an operational tool to focus monitoring efforts towards management needs and identify the most pressing scientific questions. We promote greater use of conceptual models in conjunction with a state-andtransition framework in monitoring to ensure fit for purpose approaches. Defined expectations of the focal systems' responses to different drivers also facilitate linking local and regional monitoring efforts to international initiatives, such as the Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitoring Program.

Small rodents are a key indicator to understand the effect of rapidly changing winter climate on Arctic tundra ecosystems. However, monitoring rodent populations through the long Arctic winter by means of conventional traps has until now been hampered by snow cover and harsh ambient conditions. Here, we conduct the first extensive assessment of the utility of a newly developed camera trap to study the winter dynamics of small mammals in the low-Arctic tundra of northern Norway. Forty functional cameras were motion-triggered 20172 times between September 2014 and July 2015, mainly by grey-sided voles (Myodes rufocanus SUNDEVALL 1846), tundra voles (Microtus oeconomus PALLAS 1776), Norwegian lemmings (Lemmus lemmus LINNAEUS 1758) and shrews (Sorex spp.). These data proved to be suitable for dynamical modelling of species-specific site occupancy rates. The occupancy rates of all recorded species declined sharply and synchronously at the onset of the winter. This decline happened concurrently with changes in the ambient conditions recorded by time-lapse images of snow and water. Our study demonstrates the potential of subnivean camera traps for elucidating novel aspects of year-round dynamics of Arctic small mammal communities.

Understanding and predicting large-scale ecological responses to global environmental change requires comparative studies across geographic scales with coordinated efforts and standardized methodologies. We designed, applied and assessed standardized protocols to measure tundra herbivory at three spatial scales: plot, site (habitat), and study area (landscape). The plot and site-level protocols were tested in the field during summers 2014-2015 at eleven sites, nine of them comprising warming experimental plots included in the International Tundra Experiment (ITEX). The study area protocols were assessed during 2014-2018 at 24 study areas across the Arctic. Our protocols provide comparable and easy-to-implement methods for assessing the intensity of invertebrate herbivory within ITEX plots and for characterizing vertebrate herbivore communities at larger spatial scales. We discuss methodological constraints and make recommendations for how these protocols can be used and how sampling effort can be optimized to obtain comparable estimates of herbivory, both at ITEX sites and at large landscape scales. The application of these protocols across the tundra biome will allow characterizing and comparing herbivore communities across tundra sites and at ecologically relevant spatial scales, providing an important step towards a better understanding of tundra ecosystem responses to large-scale environmental change.

During the last decade, methods based on high-throughput sequencing such as DNA metabarcoding have opened up for a range of new questions in animal dietary studies. One of the major advantages of dietary metabarcoding resides in the potential to infer a quantitative relationship between sequence read proportions and biomass of ingested food. However, this relationship’s robustness is highly dependent on the system under study, calling for case-specific assessments. Herbivorous small rodents often play important roles in the ecosystem, and the use of DNA metabarcoding for analyses of rodent diets is increasing. However, there has been no direct validation of the quantitative reliability of DNA metabarcoding for small rodents. Therefore, we used an experimental approach to assess the relationship between input plant biomass and sequence reads proportions from DNA metabarcoding in the tundra vole Microtus oeconomus. We found a weakly positive relationship between the number of high-throughput DNA sequences and the expected biomass proportions of food plants. The weak relationship was possibly caused by a systematic under-amplification of one of the three plant taxa fed. Generally, our results add to the growing evidence that case-specific validation studies are required to reliably make use of sequence read abundance as a proxy of relative food proportions in the diet.

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Occupancy models have been developed independently to account for multiple spatial scales and species interactions in a dynamic setting. However, as interacting species (e.g., predators and prey) often operate at different spatial scales, including nested spatial structure might be especially relevant in models of interacting species. Here we bridge these two model frameworks by developing a multi-scale two-species occupancy model. The model is dynamic, i.e. it estimates initial occupancy, colonization and extinction probabilities - including probabilities conditional to the other species' presence. With a simulation study, we demonstrate that the model is able to estimate parameters without bias under low, medium and high average occupancy probabilities, as well as low, medium and high detection probabilities. We further show the model's ability to deal with sparse field data by applying it to a multi-scale camera trapping dataset on a mustelid-rodent predator-prey system. The field study illustrates that the model allows estimation of species interaction effects on colonization and extinction probabilities at two spatial scales. This creates opportunities to explicitly account for the spatial structure found in many spatially nested study designs, and to study interacting species that have contrasted movement ranges with camera traps.