<p>Characterising and assessing multi-risk in complex systems is vital to realise the expected outcome of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. As sectors and systems are increasingly interconnected, the space in which impacts cascade is expanding. This became apparent throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, but can also be seen in the compounding and cross-border effects of climate change and connected extreme events, or from global ripple effects of armed conflicts such as the aggression committed by Russia against Ukraine. Single-hazard and single-risk approaches, while useful in certain contexts, are becoming increasingly insufficient for comprehensively managing risk due to cross-sector and cross-system interactions. There is therefore a need to develop tools that can account for how multiple hazards interact with multiple vulnerabilities of interdependent systems and sectors, which requires a systemic perspective for assessing risks.</p><p>To this aim, we developed a novel analytical tool to characterise the interconnections between risks, their underlying hazards, risk drivers, root causes and responses to risks and impacts across different systems. The tool draws on the impact chains approach (i.e. conceptual models for climate risk assessment), expanding its linear and sectoral focus towards a system-oriented view. We follow the recommendation of Zebisch et al (2021) and name this tool &#8216;Impact Webs'.&#160;</p><p>We applied the tool to five case studies in Bangladesh, Ecuador, India, Indonesia and Togo to characterise and assess cascading risks linked to COVID-19, responses to it (e.g. restriction measures) and other hazards that co-occurred during the pandemic (e.g. hydrological, geophysical, climatological). The participatory co-development of the Impact Webs was led by local case study experts and involved desk research, stakeholder workshops and expert/community consultations.</p><p>These diverse applications at multiple scales showed that Impact Webs are useful to conceptualise and visualise networks of interconnected elements across sectors. Because of the tools suitability to simultaneously analyse the interactions of multiple hazards with multiple pre-existing vulnerabilities, it provided a representation of the multi-risk space in the case studies. This is promising to identify critical elements for further investigation, such as feedback effects, trade-offs and key agents that can influence risks in systems. To this aim, the tool not only accounts for negative impacts, but also how policy responses and societal reactions to policies can lead to additional positive outcomes, as well as unintended consequences, i.e. risks arising from responses. However, given the complexity of systems and system boundaries, it is not possible to characterise all interconnections using Impact Webs. While this simplification of reality is useful for communication purposes, only the most prominent outcomes of the tool are derivable, and although the participatory approach aims to reduce this, results can be influenced by inherent biases. Despite these challenges, we find that Impact Webs are a promising new approach to characterise and assess multi-risk, thereby supporting comprehensive disaster risk management.&#160;</p>
In summer 2021, air temperatures in Canada broke records multiple days in a row as a powerful heatwave spread over the Pacific Northwest, registering over 600 heat-related deaths and setting an all-time high-temperature record for the country at 49.6°C (121.3°F). An insufficient preparedness for such high temperatures meant that emergency response capacity was overwhelmed while the general public was unequipped to deal with anomalous temperatures. As climate change continues to make heat events such as this one more frequent and intense, the lessons learned during this disaster are critical to prepare for the next. This technical background report for the 2021/2022 edition of the Interconnected Disaster Risks report analyses the root causes, drivers, impacts and potential solutions for the British Columbia heatwave through a forensic analysis of academic literature, media articles and expert interviews.
The 2021/2022 edition of the Interconnected Disaster Risks report analyses 10 disasters from around the world and explains that these events are interconnected with each other, with other larger, underlying societal processes, and with our collective behaviors and actions. Through forensic analysis, the key root causes featured among the 10 cases were an Insufficient risk governance, related to laws and practices that perpetuated or created complications in the formation of the disaster, and Undervaluing environmental costs, signifying the tendency to prioritize the economic costs of an endeavor over the potential environmental impacts. The report also identifies solutions that can help to prevent or better manage them in the future. Common solutions included Letting nature work and Innovating, but cannot be implemented in isolation given the interconnected nature of the disasters. To this end, solution packages were designed for each of the ten cases, showing how solutions themselves must be interconnected to make a lasting impact. Improving our understanding of the role of interconnectivity not just in the causes of disasters but also in turn their solutions is key for finding innovative ways to enhance our disaster risk reduction strategies.
<p>Amidst a period of complete lockdown due &#160;to COVID-19, the severe cyclonic storm Amphan made landfall in the Indian Sundarbans on 20 May 2020. The occurrence of a cyclone during &#160;the pandemic warranted investigation of interconnected risks and impacts in this climate hotspot and eco-critical region. Based on a desk study, field observations, key informant interviews and expert consultations, this research focussed on better understanding direct and cascading risks and the associated impacts from the concurrence of the two hazards occurring simultaneously. Our analysis reveals that although the region has not experienced a high number of COVID-cases between March and August 2020, the presence of underlying vulnerabilities exposed the population to cascading effects caused by the pandemic-induced lockdown along with the compounding effect of the Cyclone Amphan. In the Indian Sundarbans, COVID-19 acted as an exogenous shock, but its interplay with interconnected vulnerabilities resulted in the emergence of disruptions of a systemic nature. This was particularly the case in the economic domain, with cascading impacts observed across the welfare, education, and employment sectors. &#160;Cyclone Amphan, led to additional cascading impacts on these sectors, and affected other sectors such as health and infrastructure as well as biodiversity. Interventions such as introduction of new social protection schemes and community participation in cyclone preparedness measures have helped the system from facing a total collapse. However, some interventions that were implemented to mitigate impacts of these two concurring hazards somewhat counteracted one another. For example, while stringent COVID-19 interventions stressed on safety norms (including social distancing and stay at home orders), the hazard response protocol for Cyclone Amphan directed communities to evacuate their homes and move to communal shelters which were being used as quarantine units for returning migrant workers till before the cyclone. This caused concerns among the evacuated population, thus undermining the efficacy of the response effort. This case study underpins the need for moving from hazard-by-hazard approaches of understanding and managing risks towards integrated approaches that consider interconnected vulnerabilities, risks and impacts based on a systems perspective. Further, it also provides lessons for risk management in a multi-hazard and multi-risk setting besides sharing recommendations for better risk management in the Indian Sundarbans.</p>
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