Advancing climate resilient development pathways since the IPCC’s fifth assessment report

Werners, S.E.; Sparkes, Edward; Totin, Edmond; Abel, Nick; Bhadwal, Suruchi; Butler, James; Douxchamps, Sabine; James, H.; Methner, Nadine; Siebeneck, Jana; Stringer, Lindsay C.; Vincent, Katharine; Wise, Russell M.; Tebboth, Mark

doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2021.09.017

Cited by 34 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 48 publications

(132 reference statements)

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“…The investment pathways are long-term with no specific end, while development projects have defined duration and budgets. Hence, implementing AdIP may require disaggregation of pathways into a series of short-term development actions (Werners et al, 2021a) with continuous monitoring of progress towards the development goals and possible saturation points. This is different from current processes that do not consider uncertainties and instead measure tools of development, i.e.…”

Section: The Way Forward: From Adaptation To Adaptive Investmentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Irrigation development under uncertainty: A call for adaptive investment pathways

Prasad

Duker

Fraiture

et al. 2023

Environmental Science & Policy

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Section: The Way Forward: From Adaptation To Adaptive Investmentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Irrigation development under uncertainty: A call for adaptive investment pathways

Prasad

Duker

Fraiture

et al. 2023

Environmental Science & Policy

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“…As a result, developed pathways maps for different stages of integration can capture trade-offs and synergies across hazards and sectors and help designing multi-risk informed pathways. Although DAPP-MR has been tailored through the lens of long-term disaster risk management, it could also be applicable in comparable contexts characterized by multi-objective problems and highly interconnected and interdependent systems such as complex environmental systems, in the field of multi-sector dynamics ( Reed et al., 2022 ) or for the development of climate-resilient development pathways ( Werners et al., 2021a ). Nevertheless, several aspects of DAPP-MR require further research and reflection for the operationalization of the framework as elaborated in the following paragraphs.…”

Section: Conclusion and Limitations Of This Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

Proposing DAPP-MR as a disaster risk management pathways framework for complex, dynamic multi-risk

et al. 2022

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“…DAPP has been previously applied for flood or drought risk management (Haasnoot et al., 2014; Lawrence & Haasnoot, 2017; Totin et al., 2021; Vizinho et al., 2021). By adopting a long‐term planning perspective, DAPP can help decision‐makers avoid maladaptation and lock‐in situations in dynamic systems (Werners et al., 2021). However, the original DAPP approach does not address multi‐risk dynamics.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating Adaptation Pathways in a Complex Multi‐Risk System

Schlumberger,

Haasnoot,

Aerts

et al. 2024

Earth's Future

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Disaster Risk Management (DRM) is complex due to interacting climate risks from interacting hazards and sectors. We develop a synthetic multi‐risk test case to explore the effects of these interactions on decision‐making under deep uncertainty. The test case accounts for changes in hazard impacts and occurrence frequency due to interactions between floods and droughts. Interactions between the shipping, housing and agricultural sectors are considered as well. We use this test case to explore the utility of the Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways for Multi‐Risk (DAPP‐MR) framework. DAPP‐MR has been introduced to assess DRM policies' effectiveness under deep uncertainties and to develop integrated adaptive strategies considering interactions across hazards, sectors and time. With the test case, we show that the stage‐wise approach of DAPP‐MR, which gradually increases the complexity of the analysis, can facilitate the evaluation process. Earlier stages of the analysis can be used to establish the direct cause‐effect relations, later stages allow us to identify whether additional interacting factors have a significant effect on the direct cause‐effect relations. As a result, decision‐makers can gain insights into dependencies and their relevance for developing short‐to long‐term strategies under deep uncertainty. We show that multi‐risk interactions can lead to non‐linear effects that influence the outcome of the policy analysis, for example, the indirect influence of a decision in one sector on another. Future work could investigate further improving the operationalization of this staged approach as well as extending the set of uncertainties, dynamics and decision‐rules accounted for in the multi‐risk test case.

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Advancing climate resilient development pathways since the IPCC’s fifth assessment report

Cited by 34 publications

References 48 publications

Irrigation development under uncertainty: A call for adaptive investment pathways

Irrigation development under uncertainty: A call for adaptive investment pathways

Proposing DAPP-MR as a disaster risk management pathways framework for complex, dynamic multi-risk

Evaluating Adaptation Pathways in a Complex Multi‐Risk System

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