A ocorrência da mancha preta do amendoim está diretamente relacionada aos elementos climáticos. Desta maneira, mapas de distribuição geográfica e temporal baseados em dados do clima contribuem com informações sobre o comportamento de patossistemas frente às mudanças climáticas. O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar a evolução da favorabilidade climática à ocorrência da mancha preta para as principais regiões produtoras de amendoim da Argentina e do Brasil em função das mudanças climáticas. Na elaboração dos mapas foram considerados os meses de janeiro a março e empregada a metodologia de análise integrada das projeções climáticas e do problema fitossanitário com suporte do geoprocessamento. Foram considerados o clima normal (1961-1990) e o clima futuro (201-2040, 2041-270 e 2071-2100). Considerando as particularidades da doença nas áreas produtoras de cada país, diferentes regras em critérios de lógica matemática de SIG foram aplicadas para a Argentina e o Brasil, pois elas incorporam efeitos diversos da interação das características próprias do patógeno virulento, hospedeiro suscetível e características ambientais. Os cenários climáticos futuros apontam para o aumento da favorabilidade para a ocorrência da mancha preta do amendoim para as principais regiões produtoras da Argentina e do Brasil.Evolution of peanut black spot in the main producing areas of Argentina and Brazil under climate changeABSTRACTThe occurrence of peanut black spot is directly related to climatic elements. Thus, the elaboration of maps of geographic and temporal distribution contributes information on the behavior of pathosystems in the face of climate change. Thus, the objective of this work was to evaluate the evolution of climate favorability to the occurrence of black spot for the main producing regions of Argentina and Brazil due to climate change. In the elaboration of the maps, the main peanut producing areas of Argentina and Brazil were considered and the months from January to March. For the elaboration of the maps it was used the methodology of integrated analysis of the climate projections and the phytosanitary problem supported by the geoprocessing. Normal climate (1961-1990) and future climate (201-2040, 2041-270 and 2071-2100) were considered. Different rules were adopted for Argentina and Brazil, as they incorporate the particularities of the disease in the producing areas of each country, as an effect of the interaction of the virulent pathogen, susceptible host and environment characteristics. Future climate scenarios point to an increase in the likelihood of peanut black spot in Argentina and Brazil.Keywords: Arachis hypogea L., Cercosporidium personatum, plant disease, geoprocessing.
Risk analysis of climate change on the spatial distribution of sugarcane orange rust (Puccinia kuehnii) is a strategic study for plant protection to minimize future damages. The objective of this work was to evaluate the potential risk of the occurrence of orange rust in Argentina and Brazil under the climate change scenarios. A mapping methodology integrated the data of climate projections and the phytosanitary problem supported by Geographic Information System (GIS). Normal climate (1961-1990) and future climate (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100) from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change were considered. The conditions of climatic favorability for the occurrence of the disease were established by means mathematical logic criteria of GIS, based on knowledge of the authors, who incorporated the implicit effects of the interaction of the virulent pathogen, susceptible host, and predisposing environmental characteristics. The favorability for the occurrence of sugarcane orange rust in the main sugarcane producing regions of Argentina and Brazil varied over the months considered of the cultivation cycle. For Argentina, the future climate scenarios predicted a reduction in favorability for the occurrence of sugarcane orange rust from December to February and an increase in April. In Brazil, the climatic favorability decreased from December to March and increased in May.
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