Evolução da Mancha Preta do Amendoim nas Principais Regiões Produtoras da Argentina e do Brasil frente às Mudanças no Clima

Abstract

A ocorrência da mancha preta do amendoim está diretamente relacionada aos elementos climáticos. Desta maneira, mapas de distribuição geográfica e temporal baseados em dados do clima contribuem com informações sobre o comportamento de patossistemas frente às mudanças climáticas. O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar a evolução da favorabilidade climática à ocorrência da mancha preta para as principais regiões produtoras de amendoim da Argentina e do Brasil em função das mudanças climáticas. Na elaboração dos mapas foram considerados os meses de janeiro a março e empregada a metodologia de análise integrada das projeções climáticas e do problema fitossanitário com suporte do geoprocessamento. Foram considerados o clima normal (1961-1990) e o clima futuro (201-2040, 2041-270 e 2071-2100). Considerando as particularidades da doença nas áreas produtoras de cada país, diferentes regras em critérios de lógica matemática de SIG foram aplicadas para a Argentina e o Brasil, pois elas incorporam efeitos diversos da interação das características próprias do patógeno virulento, hospedeiro suscetível e características ambientais. Os cenários climáticos futuros apontam para o aumento da favorabilidade para a ocorrência da mancha preta do amendoim para as principais regiões produtoras da Argentina e do Brasil.Evolution of peanut black spot in the main producing areas of Argentina and Brazil under climate changeABSTRACTThe occurrence of peanut black spot is directly related to climatic elements. Thus, the elaboration of maps of geographic and temporal distribution contributes information on the behavior of pathosystems in the face of climate change. Thus, the objective of this work was to evaluate the evolution of climate favorability to the occurrence of black spot for the main producing regions of Argentina and Brazil due to climate change. In the elaboration of the maps, the main peanut producing areas of Argentina and Brazil were considered and the months from January to March. For the elaboration of the maps it was used the methodology of integrated analysis of the climate projections and the phytosanitary problem supported by the geoprocessing. Normal climate (1961-1990) and future climate (201-2040, 2041-270 and 2071-2100) were considered. Different rules were adopted for Argentina and Brazil, as they incorporate the particularities of the disease in the producing areas of each country, as an effect of the interaction of the virulent pathogen, susceptible host and environment characteristics. Future climate scenarios point to an increase in the likelihood of peanut black spot in Argentina and Brazil.Keywords: Arachis hypogea L., Cercosporidium personatum, plant disease, geoprocessing.

Climate risk scenarios of orange rust for the sugarcane-producing regions of Argentina and Brazil

“…In the United States, mathematical models have been developed for potential use in the quantitative assessment of risks of sugarcane rust epidemics (Chaulagain et al, 2020). Thus, different methodologies can be used to create maps of geographical and temporal distribution of plant diseases (Alberto et al, 2019;Angelotti et al, 2017;Bosso et al, 2017;Bisonard et al, 2020;Bhim et al, 2020). All these studies have in common is the use of an important tool for the identification of areas with favorable climatic conditions for the development of the pathogen.…”

“…This type of predictive study, using maps of geographical and temporal distribution, guides the adoption of preventive control measures, in order to avoid the introduction of the pathogen in regions with no occurrence (Bosso et al, 2016). In addition, the internationalization of research strengthens actions for the protection of plant, and it contributes to the improvement of scientific bases, allowing the planning of phytosanitary policies, assisting the public policies makers focusing on food security (Bisonard et al, 2020).…”

“…The crop disease risk modelling study was carried out simulating the future geographic distribution based on climate change scenarios. This mapping methodological approach can be strategic, as it shall assist in the preventive control of pathogens facing to climate change, avoiding/controlling the spread of disease, such as in areas with no occurrence (Alberto et al, 2019) and in neighboring countries for plant protection at the international level (Bisonard et al, 2020). Thus, the objective was to evaluate the potential risk of occurrence of orange rust in Argentina and Brazil under the climate change scenarios.…”