BackgroundMalaria is a great public health burden and Africa suffers the largest share of malaria-attributed deaths. Despite control efforts targeting indoor malaria transmission, such as insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs) and deployment of indoor residual spraying, transmission of the parasite in western Kenya is still maintained. This study was carried out to determine the impact of ITNs on indoor vector densities and biting behaviour in western Kenya.MethodsIndoor collection of adult mosquitoes was done monthly in six study sites in western Kenya using pyrethrum spray collections from 2012 to 2014. The rotator trap collections were done in July–August in 2013 and May–June in 2014. Mosquitoes were collected every 2 h between 18.00 and 08.00 h. Human behaviour study was conducted via questionnaire surveys. Species within Anopheles gambiae complex was differentiated by PCR and sporozoite infectivity was determined by ELISA. Species distribution was determined and bed net coverage in the study sites was recorded.ResultsDuring the study a total of 5,469 mosquito vectors were collected from both PSC and Rotator traps comprising 3,181 (58.2%) Anopheles gambiae and 2,288 (41.8%) Anopheles funestus. Compared to all the study sites, Rae had the highest density of An. gambiae with a mean of 1.2 (P < 0.001) while Kombewa had the highest density of An. funestus with a mean of 1.08 (P < 0.001). Marani had the lowest density of vectors with 0.06 An. gambiae and 0.17 An. funestus (P < 0.001). Among the 700 PCR confirmed An. gambiaes.l. individuals, An. gambiaes.s. accounted for 49% and An. arabiensis 51%. Over 50% of the study population stayed outdoors between 18.00 and 20.00 and 06.00 and 08.00 which was the time when highest densities of blood fed vectors were collected. Anopheles gambies.s. was the main malaria parasite vector in the highland sites and An. arabiensis in the lowland sites. Bed net ownership in 2012 averaged 87% across the study sites.ConclusionsThis study suggests that mass distribution of ITNs has had a significant impact on vector densities, species distribution and sporozoite rate. However, shift of biting time poses significant threats to the current malaria vector control strategies which heavily rely on indoor controls.

BackgroundMass distribution of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) is a cost-effective way to achieve universal coverage, but maintaining this coverage is more difficult. In addition to commonly used indicators, evaluation of universal coverage should include coverage of effective nets and changes in coverage over time.MethodsLongitudinal and cross-sectional household ITN surveys were carried out from 2010 to 2013 in six locations representing a variety of settings across western Kenya. Five indicators were used to evaluate the current status of universal coverage: 1) ITN ownership – proportion of households that own at least one ITN, 2) access index – ratio of the number of family members over the number of ITNs owned by that household, 3) operational coverage – proportion of the at-risk population potentially covered by ITNs, assuming one ITN for every two people, 4) effective coverage – population coverage of effective ITNs, and 5) usage – proportion of the population that used ITNs the previous night.ResultsITN ownership and operational coverage increased substantially from 2010 to 2013, but this increase was mostly due to the 2011 mass distribution campaign. In 2013, household ITN ownership was on average 84.4% (95% CI [78.4, 90.5]) across the six study areas, and operational coverage was 83.2% (95% CI [72.5, 93.8]). The ITN access rate was 59.1% (95% CI [56.6, 61.7]), and 40.8% (95% CI [38.3, 43.4]) of the people at risk needed more nets to achieve universal coverage. About 88.5% (95% CI [86.1, 90.9]) of the ITNs were below three years old and 16.5% (95% CI [12.1, 20.9]) of the ITNs had hole(s). The estimated effective long-lasting insecticide-treated net (LLIN) coverage was 70.5% (95 CI [58.7, 82.3]). Approximately 18.4% (95% CI [15.5, 21.4]) of the ITNs were shared by more than three persons, and the population ITN usage rate was about 75-87%. The reason for not using ITNs was almost exclusively “net not available”.ConclusionCurrent methods of delivering ITNs, i.e., one mass campaign every five years and regular distribution of ITNs from health center can barely maintain the current effective coverage. Inaccessibility and loss of physical integrity of ITNs are major hindrances to achieving and maintaining universal coverage.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1475-2875-13-351) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Following severe malaria epidemics in the western Kenya highlands after the late 1980s it became imperative to undertake eco-epidemiological assessments of the disease and determine its drivers, spatial-temporal distribution and control strategies. Extensive research has indicated that the major biophysical drivers of the disease are climate change and variability, terrain, topography, hydrology and immunity. Vector distribution is focalized at valley bottoms and abundance is closely related with drainage efficiency, habitat availability, stability and productivity of the ecosystems. Early epidemic prediction models have been developed and they can be used to assess climate risks that warrant extra interventions with a lead time of 2–4 months. Targeted integrated vector management strategies can significantly reduce the cost on the indoor residual spraying by targeting the foci of transmission in transmission hotspots. Malaria control in the highlands has reduced vector population by 90%, infections by 50–90% in humans and in some cases transmission has been interrupted. Insecticide resistance is increasing and as transmission decreases so will immunity. Active surveillance will be required to monitor and contain emerging threats. More studies on eco-stratification of the disease, based on its major drivers, are required so that interventions are tailored for specific ecosystems. New and innovative control interventions such as house modification with a one-application strategy may reduce the threat from insecticide resistance and low compliance associated with the use of ITNs.

BackgroundIndoor residual spraying (IRS) and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) are the first-line tools for malaria prevention and control in Africa. Vector resistance to insecticides has been extensively studied, however the insecticidal effects of the nets and sprayed walls on pyrethroid resistant mosquitoes has not been studied thoroughly. We evaluated the bioefficacy of LLINs of different ages and lambda-cyhalothrin (ICON 10cs) on the sprayed mud walls for a period of time on malaria vector survivorship.MethodsWHO tube bioassay was performed using diagnostic doses of lambda-cyhalothrin (0.05 %), permethrin (0.75 %) and deltamethrin (0.05 %). Cone bioassays were conducted on netting materials from 0 to 3 years old long-lasting insecticide-impregnated nets. Wall bioassays were performed monthly on mud slabs sprayed with lambdacyhalothrin over a period of seven months. All bioassays used An. gambiae mosquitoes collected from the field and the laboratory susceptible reference Kisumu strain. Concentration of the insecticides on the netting materials was examined using the gas chromatography method. Mosquitoes were identified to species level using PCR and genotyped for the kdr gene mutation frequencies.ResultsWHO bioassays results showed that populations from five sites were highly resistant to the pyrethroids (mortalities ranged from 52.5 to 75.3 %), and two sites were moderately resistant to these insecticides (80.4 – 87.2 %). Homozygote kdr mutations of L1014S ranged from 73 to 88 % in An. gambiae s.s. dominant populations whereas L1014S mutation frequencies were relatively low (7–31 %) in An. arabiensis dominant populations. There was a significant decrease (P < 0.05) in mosquito mortality with time after the spray with both lambda-cyhalothrin (75 % mortality after six months) and with the age of LLINs (60 % mortality after 24 month). Field collected mosquitoes were able to survive exposure to both IRS and LLINs even with newly sprayed walls (86.6–93.5 % mortality) and new LLINs (77.5–85.0 % mortality), Wild mosquitoes collected from the field had significantly lower mortality rates to LLINs (59.6–85.0 %) than laboratory reared susceptible strain (100 %). Insecticide concentration decreased significantly from 0.14 μg/ml in the new nets to 0.077 μg/ml in nets older than 18 months (P < 0.05).ConclusionThis study confirms that insecticide decay and developing levels of resistance have a negative contribution to reduced efficacy of ITN and IRS in western Kenya. These factors contribute to decreased efficacy of pyrethroid insectides in ongoing malaria control programs. In order to mitigate against the impact of insecticide resistance and decay it is important to follow the WHO policy to provide the residents with new LLINs every three years of use while maintaining a high level of LLINs coverage and usage. There is also need for urgent development and deployment of non-pyrethroid based vector control tools.

BackgroundVector control in the highlands of western Kenya has resulted in a significant reduction of malaria transmission and a change in the vectorial system. Climate variability as a result of events such as El Niño increases the highlands suitability for malaria transmission. Surveillance and monitoring is an important component of early transmission risk identification and management. However, below certain disease transmission thresholds, traditional tools for surveillance such as entomological inoculation rates may become insensitive. A rapid diagnostic kit comprising Plasmodium falciparum circumsporozoite surface protein and merozoite surface protein antibodies in humans was tested for early detection of transmission surges in the western Kenya highlands during an El Niño event (October 2009-February 2010).MethodsIndoor resting female adult malaria vectors were collected in western Kenya highlands in four selected villages categorized into two valley systems, the U-shaped (Iguhu and Emutete) and the V-shaped valleys (Marani and Fort Ternan) for eight months. Members of the Anopheles gambiae complex were identified by PCR. Blood samples were collected from children 6-15 years old and exposure to malaria was tested using a circum-sporozoite protein and merozoite surface protein immunchromatographic rapid diagnostic test kit. Sporozoite ELISA was conducted to detect circum-sporozoite protein, later used for estimation of entomological inoculation rates.ResultsAmong the four villages studied, an upsurge in antibody levels was first observed in October 2009. Plasmodium falciparum sporozoites were then first observed in December 2009 at Iguhu village and February 2010 at Emutete. Despite the upsurge in Marani and Fort Ternan no sporozoites were detected throughout the eight month study period. The antibody-based assay had much earlier transmission detection ability than the sporozoite-based assay. The proportion of An. arabiensis among An. gambiae s.l. ranged from 2.9-66.7% indicating a rearrangement of the sibling species of the An. gambiae s.l complex. This is possibly an adaptation to insecticide interventions and climate change.ConclusionThe changing malaria transmission rates in the western Kenya highlands will lead to more unstable transmission, decreased immunity and a high vulnerability to epidemics unless surveillance tools are improved and effective vector control is sustained.

BackgroundMalaria epidemics remain a serious threat to human populations living in the highlands of East Africa where transmission is unstable and climate sensitive. An existing early malaria epidemic prediction model required further development, validations and automation before its wide use and application in the region. The model has a lead-time of two to four months between the detection of the epidemic signal and the evolution of the epidemic. The validated models would be of great use in the early detection and prevention of malaria epidemics.MethodsConfirmed inpatient malaria data were collected from eight sites in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda for the period 1995-2009. Temperature and rainfall data for the period 1960-2009 were collected from meteorological stations closest to the source of the malaria data. Process-based models were constructed for computing the risk of an epidemic in two general highland ecosystems using temperature and rainfall data. The sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive power were used to validate the models.ResultsDepending on the availability and quality of the malaria and meteorological data, the models indicated good functionality at all sites. Only two sites in Kenya had data that met the criteria for the full validation of the models. The additive model was found most suited for the poorly drained U-shaped valley ecosystems while the multiplicative model was most suited for the well-drained V-shaped valley ecosystem. The +18°C model was adaptable to any of the ecosystems and was designed for conditions where climatology data were not available. The additive model scored 100% for sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive power. The multiplicative model had a sensitivity of 75% specificity of 99% and a positive predictive power of 86%.ConclusionsThe additive and multiplicative models were validated and were shown to be robust and with high climate-based, early epidemic predictive power. They are designed for use in the common, well- and poorly drained valley ecosystems in the highlands of East Africa.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1475-2875-13-329) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

BackgroundMonitoring and evaluation of entomological, parasitological and clinical data is an important component of malaria control as it is a measure of the success of the interventions. In many studies, clinical data has been used to monitor trends in malaria morbidity and mortality. This study was conducted to demonstrate age dependent prevalence of malaria in the pre- and post-interventions period.MethodsA series of cross-sectional malaria parasitological surveys were conducted in Iguhu, western Kenya. Participants were randomly selected school-aged children between 6 and 13 years. The study was conducted between June 2002–December 2003 and January 2012–February 2015. Sexual and asexual parasite prevalence and densities were determined using microscopy. Age-dependence in parasite infections was compared between 2002–2003 and 2012–2015.Results Plasmodium falciparum had the highest prevalence of 43.5 and 11.5% in the pre- and post-intervention periods. Plasmodium malariae had a prevalence of 2.3 and 0.2%, while Plasmodium ovale had a prevalence of 0.3 and 0.1% during the pre- and post-intervention period, respectively. There was a 73.7% reduction in prevalence of P. falciparum in the post-intervention compared to the pre-intervention period. Plasmodium falciparum parasite density increased by 71.2% between pre- and post-intervention period from (geometric mean of) 554.4–949.2 parasites/µl. Geometric mean gametocytaemia in Iguhu was higher in the post-intervention period (106.4 parasites/µl), when compared to the pre-intervention period (54.1 parasites/µl). Prevalence and density of P. falciparum showed a lower age-dependency during post-intervention period when compared to pre-intervention period.ConclusionThe study provides evidence for reduction of malaria prevalence following the introduction of LLINs and ACT in western Kenya. Fewer people become infected but the few infected may be more infectious as suggested by higher gametocyte densities. The high parasite densities, which were not dependent on age, observed in the post intervention period imply that a more comprehensive integrated malaria management may be required to sustain the current interventions and hence reduce malaria transmission.

BackgroundThe climate based malaria epidemic early warning system for the western Kenya highlands was developed, tested and validated. During this process, it was critically important to involve key stakeholder to ensure a buy-in and institutionalization of the tool. The performance of the tool during a period of malaria intervention and climate variability was required.