The causes of the recent reemergence of Plasmodium falciparum epidemic malaria in the East African highlands are controversial. Regional climate changes have been invoked as a major factor; however, assessing the impact of climate in malaria resurgence is difficult due to high spatial and temporal climate variability and the lack of long-term data series on malaria cases from different sites. Climate variability, defined as short-term fluctuations around the mean climate state, may be epidemiologically more relevant than mean temperature change, but its effects on malaria epidemics have not been rigorously examined. Here we used nonlinear mixed-regression model to investigate the association between autoregression (number of malaria outpatients during the previous time period), seasonality and climate variability, and the number of monthly malaria outpatients of the past 10–20 years in seven highland sites in East Africa. The model explained 65–81% of the variance in the number of monthly malaria outpatients. Nonlinear and synergistic effects of temperature and rainfall on the number of malaria outpatients were found in all seven sites. The net variance in the number of monthly malaria outpatients caused by autoregression and seasonality varied among sites and ranged from 18 to 63% (mean = 38.6%), whereas 12–63% (mean = 36.1%) of variance is attributed to climate variability. Our results suggest that there was a high spatial variation in the sensitivity of malaria outpatient number to climate fluctuations in the highlands, and that climate variability played an important role in initiating malaria epidemics in the East African highlands

Objective To assess the contributions of both microbial larvicides and insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) in terms of reducing malaria incidence in an integrated vector management programme in an area moderately endemic for malaria in the western Kenyan highlands. Methods A pre-post, control group design was used. Larval and adult vector populations were surveyed weekly in six separate valley communities. The incidence of Plasmodium infections in children 6 months to 13 years of age was measured during the long and short rainy seasons each year. Baseline data were collected for 17 months, after which Bacillus-based larvicides were applied weekly to aquatic habitats in three of the valleys for another 19 months. At around the same time the larviciding was initiated, ITNs were introduced gradually into all study communities by the National Malaria Control Programme. The effect of larviciding, ITNs and other determinants of malaria risk was assessed by means of generalized estimating equations. Findings The risk of acquiring new parasite infections in children was substantially and independently reduced by ITN use (odds ratio, OR: 0.69; 95% confidence interval, CI: 0.48-0.99) and larvicide application (OR: 0.44; 95% CI: 0.23-0.82), after adjusting for confounders. Conclusion Vector control with microbial larvicides enhanced the malaria control achieved with ITNs alone. Anti-larval measures are a promising complement to ITN distribution in the economically important highland areas and similar transmission settings in Africa.Une traduction en français de ce résumé figure à la fin de l'article. Al final del artículo se facilita una traducción al español. ‫املقالة.‬ ‫لهذه‬ ‫الكامل‬ ‫النص‬ ‫نهاية‬ ‫يف‬ ‫الخالصة‬ ‫لهذه‬ ‫العربية‬ ‫الرتجمة‬

BackgroundThe impact of insecticide treated nets (ITNs) on reducing malaria incidence is shown mainly through data collection from health facilities. Routine evaluation of long-term epidemiological and entomological dynamics is currently unavailable. In Kenya, new policies supporting the provision of free ITNs were implemented nationwide in June 2006. To evaluate the impacts of ITNs on malaria transmission, we conducted monthly surveys in three sentinel sites with different transmission intensities in western Kenya from 2002 to 2010.Methods and FindingsLongitudinal samplings of malaria parasite prevalence in asymptomatic school children and vector abundance in randomly selected houses were undertaken monthly from February 2002. ITN ownership and usage surveys were conducted annually from 2004 to 2010. Asymptomatic malaria parasite prevalence and vector abundances gradually decreased in all three sites from 2002 to 2006, and parasite prevalence reached its lowest level from late 2006 to early 2007. The abundance of the major malaria vectors, Anopheles funestus and An. gambiae, increased about 5–10 folds in all study sites after 2007. However, the resurgence of vectors was highly variable between sites and species. By 2010, asymptomatic parasite prevalence in Kombewa had resurged to levels recorded in 2004/2005, but the resurgence was smaller in magnitude in the other sites. Household ITN ownership was at 50–70% in 2009, but the functional and effective bed net coverage in the population was estimated at 40.3%, 49.4% and 28.2% in 2010 in Iguhu, Kombewa, and Marani, respectively.ConclusionThe resurgence in parasite prevalence and malaria vectors has been observed in two out of three sentinel sites in western Kenya despite a high ownership of ITNs. The likely factors contributing to malaria resurgence include reduced efficacy of ITNs, insecticide resistance in mosquitoes and lack of proper use of ITNs. These factors should be targeted to avoid further resurgence of malaria transmission.

BackgroundInsecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs) are known to be highly effective in reducing malaria morbidity and mortality. However, usage varies among households, and such variations in actual usage may seriously limit the potential impact of nets and cause spatial heterogeneity on malaria transmission. This study examined ITN ownership and underlying factors for among-household variation in use, and malaria transmission in two highland regions of western Kenya.MethodsCross-sectional surveys were conducted on ITN ownership (possession), compliance (actual usage among those who own ITNs), and malaria infections in occupants of randomly sampled houses in the dry and the rainy seasons of 2009.ResultsDespite ITN ownership reaching more than 71%, compliance was low at 56.3%. The compliance rate was significantly higher during the rainy season compared with the dry season (62% vs. 49.6%). Both malaria parasite prevalence (11.8% vs. 5.1%) and vector densities (1.0 vs.0.4 female/house/night) were significantly higher during the rainy season than during the dry season. Other important factors affecting the use of ITNs include: a household education level of at least primary school level, significantly high numbers of nuisance mosquitoes, and low indoor temperatures. Malaria prevalence in the rainy season was about 30% lower in ITN users than in non-ITN users, but this percentage was not significantly different during the dry season.ConclusionIn malaria hypo-mesoendemic highland regions of western Kenya, the gap between ITNownership and usage is generally high with greater usage recorded during the high transmission season. Because of the low compliance among those who own ITNs, there is a need to sensitize households on sustained use of ITNs in order to optimize their role as a malaria control tool.

We examined the effects of land cover type on survivorship and productivity of Anopheles gambiae in Kakamega in the western Kenyan highlands (elevation = 1,420-1,580 meters above sea level). Under natural conditions, An. gambiae sensu lato adults emerged only from farmland habitats, with an estimated productivity of 1.82 mosquitoes/meter(2)/week, but not from forest and swamp habitats. To determine the effects of intraspecific competition and land cover types, semi-natural larval habitats were created within three land cover types (farmland, forest, and natural swamp), and three different densities of An. gambiae sensu stricto larvae were introduced to the larval habitats. The mosquito pupation rate in farmland habitats was significantly greater than in swamp and forest habitats, and larval-to-pupal development times were significantly shorter. At higher densities, the larvae responded to increased intraspecific competition by extending their development time and emerging as smaller adults, but initial larval density showed no significant effects on pupation rate. Land cover type may affect larval survivorship and adult productivity through its effects on water temperature and nutrients in the aquatic habitats, as shown by the significantly higher water temperature in farmland habitats, enhanced pupation rates and shortened development times from the addition of food to habitats, and a significant negative correlation of the occurrence of An. gambiae larvae with canopy cover and emergent plants in natural habitats. These results suggest that deforestation and cultivation of natural swamps in the western Kenyan highland create conditions favorable for the survival of An. gambiae larvae, and consequently increase the risks of malaria transmission to the human population.

BackgroundImmature stages of the malaria mosquito Anopheles gambiae experience high mortality, but its cause is poorly understood. Here we study the impact of rainfall, one of the abiotic factors to which the immatures are frequently exposed, on their mortality.Methodology/Principal FindingsWe show that rainfall significantly affected larval mosquitoes by flushing them out of their aquatic habitat and killing them. Outdoor experiments under natural conditions in Kenya revealed that the additional nightly loss of larvae caused by rainfall was on average 17.5% for the youngest (L1) larvae and 4.8% for the oldest (L4) larvae; an additional 10.5% (increase from 0.9 to 11.4%) of the L1 larvae and 3.3% (from 0.1 to 3.4%) of the L4 larvae were flushed away and larval mortality increased by 6.9% (from 4.6 to 11.5%) and 1.5% (from 4.1 to 5.6%) for L1 and L4 larvae, respectively, compared to nights without rain. On rainy nights, 1.3% and 0.7% of L1 and L4 larvae, respectively, were lost due to ejection from the breeding site.Conclusions/SignificanceThis study demonstrates that immature populations of malaria mosquitoes suffer high losses during rainfall events. As these populations are likely to experience several rain showers during their lifespan, rainfall will have a profound effect on the productivity of mosquito breeding sites and, as a result, on the transmission of malaria. These findings are discussed in the light of malaria risk and changing rainfall patterns in response to climate change.

Land use changes have been suggested as one of the causes for malaria epidemics in the African highlands. This study investigated the effects of deforestation-induced changes in indoor temperature on the survivorship and reproductive fitness of Anopheles gambiae in an epidemic prone area in the western Kenya highlands. We found that the mean indoor temperatures of houses located in the deforested area were 1.2 degrees C higher than in houses located in the forested area during the dry season and 0.7 degrees C higher during the rainy season. The mosquito mortality rate was highly age-dependent regardless of study site or season. Mosquitoes that were placed in houses in the deforested area showed a 64.8-79.5% higher fecundity than those in houses located in the forested area, but the median survival time was reduced by 5-7 days. Female mosquitoes in the deforested area showed a 38.5-40.6% increase in net reproductive rate and an 11.6-42.9% increase in intrinsic growth rate than those in the forested area. Significant increases in net reproductive rate and intrinsic growth rate for mosquitoes in the deforested area suggest that deforestation enhances mosquito reproductive fitness, increasing mosquito population growth potential in the western Kenya highlands. The vectorial capacity of An. gambiae under study was estimated at least 106% and 29% higher in the deforested area than in the forested area in dry and rainy seasons, respectively.

The distributions of anopheline larval habitats were aggregated in valley bottoms in Kenya in both the rainy and dry seasons, although the degree of aggregation was higher in the dry season than in the rainy season. Larvae of the Anopheles gambiae complex larvae were found more frequently in habitats in farmlands and pastures. However, An. funestus larvae were found more frequently in natural swamps and pastures. Canopy cover was the only variable significantly associated with the occurrence of the An. gambiae complex and An. funestus. The average canopy cover was significantly less in the habitats with the An. gambiae complex and An. funestus larvae than those without the anopheline larvae. Thus, land cover types and topographic features showed important effects on the distribution of anopheline larval habitats. These results suggest that clearing riparian forests would improve growing conditions of the An. gambiae complex and An. funestus larvae in Kenyan highlands.