No abstract

Potential consequences of climate change on crop production can be studied using mechanistic crop simulation models. While a broad variety of maize simulation models exist, it is not known whether different models diverge on grain yield responses to changes in climatic factors, or whether they agree in their general trends related to phenology, growth, and yield. With the goal of analyzing the sensitivity of simulated yields to changes in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2 ], we present the largest maize crop model intercomparison to date, including 23 different models. These models were evaluated for four locations representing a wide range of maize production conditions in the world: Lusignan (France), Ames (USA), Rio Verde (Brazil) and Morogoro (Tanzania). While individual models differed considerably in absolute yield simulation at the four sites, an ensemble of a minimum number of models was able to simulate absolute yields accurately at the four sites even with low data for calibration, thus suggesting that using an ensemble of models has merit. Temperature increase had strong negative influence on modeled yield response of roughly -0.5 Mg ha(-1) per °C. Doubling [CO2 ] from 360 to 720 μmol mol(-1) increased grain yield by 7.5% on average across models and the sites. That would therefore make temperature the main factor altering maize yields at the end of this century. Furthermore, there was a large uncertainty in the yield response to [CO2 ] among models. Model responses to temperature and [CO2 ] did not differ whether models were simulated with low calibration information or, simulated with high level of calibration information.

No abstract

No abstract

Biomass and nitrogen partitioning Integrated design environment Phenological and morphological development Reusable organ and function classes a b s t r a c tThe Plant Modelling Framework (PMF) is a software framework for creating models that represent the plant components of farm system models in the agricultural production system simulator (APSIM). It is the next step in the evolution of generic crop templates for APSIM, building on software and science lessons from past versions and capitalising on new software approaches. The PMF contains a top-level Plant class that provides an interface with the APSIM model environment and controls the other classes in the plant model. Other classes include mid-level Organ, Phenology, Structure and Arbitrator classes that represent specific elements or processes of the crop and sub-classes that the mid-level classes use to represent repeated data structures. It also contains low-level Function classes which represent generic mathematical, logical, procedural or reference code and provide values to the processes carried out by mid-level classes. A plant configuration file specifies which mid-level and Function classes are to be included and how they are to be arranged and parameterised to represent a particular crop model. The PMF has an integrated design environment to allow plant models to be created visually. The aims of the PMF are to maximise code reuse and allow flexibility in the structure of models. Four examples are included to demonstrate the flexibility of application of the PMF; 1. Slurp, a simple model of the water use of a static crop, 2. Oat, an annual grain crop model with detailed growth, development and resource use processes, 3. Lucerne, perennial forage model with detailed growth, development and resource use processes, 4. Wheat, another detailed annual crop model constructed using an alternative set of organ and process classes. These examples show the PMF can be used to develop models of different complexities and allows flexibility in the approach for implementing crop physiology concepts into model set up.

No abstract

We show the error in water-limited yields simulated by crop models which is associated with spatially aggregated soil and climate input data. Crop simulations at large scales (regional, national, continental) frequently use input data of low resolution. Therefore, climate and soil data are often generated via averaging and sampling by area majority. This may bias simulated yields at large scales, varying largely across models. Thus, we evaluated the error associated with spatially aggregated soil and climate data for 14 crop models. Yields of winter wheat and silage maize were simulated under water-limited production conditions. We calculated this error from crop yields simulated at spatial resolutions from 1 to 100 km for the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. Most models showed yields biased by <15% when aggregating only soil data. The relative mean absolute error (rMAE) of most models using aggregated soil data was in the range or larger than the inter-annual or inter-model variability in yields. This error increased further when both climate and soil data were aggregated. Distinct error patterns indicate that the rMAE may be estimated from few soil variables. Illustrating the range of these aggregation effects across models, this study is a first step towards an ex-ante assessment of aggregation errors in large-scale simulations.

No abstract