The aim of this paper is to estimate the effect that climate change will have on groundwater recharge at the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. The groundwater recharge is calculated from a monthly water balance model considering eight methods of potential and actual evapotranspiration. Historical data from 1961-2000 and climate model outputs from five downscaled General Circulation Models in the near horizon (2015-2039), with Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 are used. The results estimate a recharge of 118 ± 33 mm•year -1 (around 10 % of precipitation) in the historical period. Considering the uncertainty from GCMs under different RCP and evapotranspiration scenarios, our monthly water balance model estimates a groundwater recharge of 92 ± 40 mm•year -1 (RCP4.5) and 94 ± 38 mm•year -1 (RCP8.5) which represent a reduction of 23% and 20%, respectively, a result that threatens the socio-ecological balance of the region.

Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC http://upcommons.upc.edu/e-prints Aquesta és una còpia de la versió author's final draft d'un article publicat a la revista Journal of cleaner production.

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Social risk assessments and case studies of labour conditions in food production primarily focus on specific subpopulations, regions and commodities. To date, research has not systematically assessed labour conditions against international standards across diverse, complex food products. Here we combine data on production, trade, labour intensity and qualitative risk coding to quantitatively assess the risk of forced labour embedded in the US land-based food supply, building on our previous assessment of fruits and vegetables. We demonstrate that animal-based proteins, processed fruits and vegetables, and discretionary foods are major contributors to forced labour risk and that 62% of total forced labour risk stems from domestic production or processing. Our findings reveal the widespread risk of forced labour present in the US food supply and the necessity of collaborative action across all countries—high, middle and low income—to eliminate reliance on labour exploitation.