A water balance model to estimate climate change impact on groundwater recharge in Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to estimate the effect that climate change will have on groundwater recharge at the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. The groundwater recharge is calculated from a monthly water balance model considering eight methods of potential and actual evapotranspiration. Historical data from 1961-2000 and climate model outputs from five downscaled General Circulation Models in the near horizon (2015-2039), with Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 are used. The results estimate a recharge of 118 ± 33 mm•year -1 (around 10 % of precipitation) in the historical period. Considering the uncertainty from GCMs under different RCP and evapotranspiration scenarios, our monthly water balance model estimates a groundwater recharge of 92 ± 40 mm•year -1 (RCP4.5) and 94 ± 38 mm•year -1 (RCP8.5) which represent a reduction of 23% and 20%, respectively, a result that threatens the socio-ecological balance of the region.

Historical analysis of a karst aquifer: recharge, water extraction, and consumption dynamics on a tourist island (Cozumel, Mexico)

“…An overall increase in tourism activities might also explain the increasing trend in water consumption by the commercial sector and the decreasing trend by the industry sector. A similar trend has been reported in the State of Quintana Roo, where an increase in consumption in the service sector was caused by tourism economic growth (Rodríguez-Huerta et al, 2019b). The domestic sector does not show an increasing trend over time according to the MKt as would be expected for an increasing population on the island.…”

“…Most of the available hydro meteorological trend studies do not focus on Cozumel but are meant for the Yucatan Peninsula area. These studies suggest an overall regional decreasing trend in precipitation (Castro-Borges and Mendoza-Rangel, 2010;De la Barreda et al, 2020;Rodríguez-Huerta et al, 2019b), although there is evidence of an increase in some locations of the Yucatan Peninsula, such as Ria Lagartos (Yucatan State) and Escárcega (Campeche State) (Neeti et al, 2012). This information suggests that despite the expected regional decreasing trend in precipitation, there may be a different precipitation behaviour on a local scale, thereby emphasizing the importance of specific studies for areas such as Cozumel.…”

“…The increased extraction volumes from wells are related to population growth and economic development on the island in the last 30 years, as economic growth and urbanization raise the demand for water (Rodríguez-Huerta et al, 2019b). The average monthly extraction volume was 345,807 m 3 (Tab.…”

“…Mann-Kendall test is recommended by the World Meteorological Organization and has been used by several authors for evaluating the trend in climatic, hydrological and water resources data (Jaiswal et al, 2015). Although these tools have not yet been used fully to analyse information previously for Cozumel, there are examples of their implementation in other studies for the Yucatan Peninsula (Bautista et al, 2009;Herrera-Silveira et al, 2002;Rodríguez-Huerta et al, 2019a, 2019b.…”

Impact of Climate Change on Groundwater Recharge in Cotton Irrigated Fields under Agronomical Practices

“…8b, f, & j). Reduction of groundwater recharge flux could be a potential threat to the socio-ecological balance of the region (Rodríguez-Huerta et al 2020), up to a 6.6% decrease in groundwater recharge reported under flood irrigation in the Mediterranean region (Pool et al 2021). The highest recharge was observed 71 cm for 2051-80 under T2 for RCP 2.6 (Fig.…”