Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production 1 . Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature 2 . Here we systematically tested 30 di erent wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 • C to 32 • C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6% for each • C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time.Understanding how different climate factors interact and impact food production 3 is essential when reaching decisions on how to adapt to the effects of climate change. To implement such strategies the contribution of various climate variables on crop yields need to be separated and quantified. For instance, a change in temperature will require a different adaptation strategy than a change in rainfall 4 . Temperature changes alone are reported to have potentially large negative impacts on crop production 5 , and hotspots-locations where plants suffer from high temperature stress-have been identified across the globe 6,7 . Crop simulation models are useful tools in climate impact studies as they deal with multiple climate factors and how they interact with various crop growth and yield formation processes that are sensitive to climate. These models have been applied in many studies, including the assessment of temperature impacts on crop production 1,8 . However, none of the crop models have been tested systematically against experiments at different temperatures in field conditions. Although many glasshouse and controlled-environment temperature experiments have been described, they are often not suitable for model testing as the heating of root systems in pots 9 and effects on micro-climate differ greatly from field conditions 10 . Detailed information on field experiments with a wide range of sowing dates and infrared heating recently became available for wheat 11,12 . Such experiments are well suited for testing the ability of crop models to quantify temperature responses under field conditions. Testing the temperature responses of crop models is particularly important for assessing the impact of climate change on wheat production, because the largest uncertainty in simulated impacts on yield arises from increasing temperatures 2 .In a 'Hot Serial Cereal' (HSC) well-irrigated and fertilized experiment with a single cultivar, the observed days after sowing (DAS) to maturity declined...

This article introduces the FAO crop model AquaCrop. It simulates attainable yields of major herbaceous crops as a function of water consumption under rainfed, supplemental, deficit, and full irrigation conditions. The growth engine of AquaCrop is water‐driven, in that transpiration is calculated first and translated into biomass using a conservative, crop‐specific parameter: the biomass water productivity, normalized for atmospheric evaporative demand and air CO2 concentration. The normalization is to make AquaCrop applicable to diverse locations and seasons. Simulations are performed on thermal time, but can be on calendar time, in daily time‐steps. The model uses canopy ground cover instead of leaf area index (LAI) as the basis to calculate transpiration and to separate out soil evaporation from transpiration. Crop yield is calculated as the product of biomass and harvest index (HI). At the start of yield formation period, HI increases linearly with time after a lag phase, until near physiological maturity. Other than for the yield, there is no biomass partitioning into the various organs. Crop responses to water deficits are simulated with four modifiers that are functions of fractional available soil water modulated by evaporative demand, based on the differential sensitivity to water stress of four key plant processes: canopy expansion, stomatal control of transpiration, canopy senescence, and HI. The HI can be modified negatively or positively, depending on stress level, timing, and canopy duration. AquaCrop uses a relatively small number of parameters (explicit and mostly intuitive) and attempts to balance simplicity, accuracy, and robustness. The model is aimed mainly at practitioner‐type end‐users such as those working for extension services, consulting engineers, governmental agencies, nongovernmental organizations, and various kinds of farmers associations. It is also designed to fit the need of economists and policy specialists who use simple models for planning and scenario analysis.

At present and more so in the future, irrigated agriculture will take place under water scarcity. Insufficient water supply for irrigation will be the norm rather than the exception, and irrigation management will shift from emphasizing production per unit area towards maximizing the production per unit of water consumed, the water productivity. To cope with scarce supplies, deficit irrigation, defined as the application of water below full crop-water requirements (evapotranspiration), is an important tool to achieve the goal of reducing irrigation water use. While deficit irrigation is widely practised over millions of hectares for a number of reasons - from inadequate network design to excessive irrigation expansion relative to catchment supplies - it has not received sufficient attention in research. Its use in reducing water consumption for biomass production, and for irrigation of annual and perennial crops is reviewed here. There is potential for improving water productivity in many field crops and there is sufficient information for defining the best deficit irrigation strategy for many situations. One conclusion is that the level of irrigation supply under deficit irrigation should be relatively high in most cases, one that permits achieving 60-100% of full evapotranspiration. Several cases on the successful use of regulated deficit irrigation (RDI) in fruit trees and vines are reviewed, showing that RDI not only increases water productivity, but also farmers' profits. Research linking the physiological basis of these responses to the design of RDI strategies is likely to have a significant impact in increasing its adoption in water-limited areas.

Two critical limitations for using current satellite sensors in real-time crop management are the lack of imagery with optimum spatial and spectral resolutions and an unfavorable revisit time for most crop stress-detection applications. Alternatives based on manned airborne platforms are lacking due to their high operational costs. A fundamental requirement for providing useful remote sensing products in agriculture is the capacity to combine high spatial resolution and quick turnaround times. Remote sensing sensors placed on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) could fill this gap, providing low-cost approaches to meet the critical requirements of spatial, spectral, and temporal resolutions. This paper demonstrates the ability to generate quantitative remote sensing products by means of a helicopter-based UAV equipped with inexpensive thermal and narrowband multispectral imaging sensors. During summer of 2007, the platform was flown over agricultural fields, obtaining thermal imagery in the 7.5-13-μm region (40-cm resolution) and narrowband multispectral imagery in the 400-800-nm spectral region (20-cm resolution). Surface reflectance and temperature imagery were obtained, after atmospheric corrections with MODTRAN. Biophysical parameters were estimated using vegetation indices, namely, normalized difference vegetation index, transformed chlorophyll absorption in reflectance index/optimized soil-adjusted vegetation index, and photochemical reflectance index (PRI), coupled with SAILH and FLIGHT models. As a result, the image products of leaf area index, chlorophyll content (C ab), and water stress detection from PRI index and canopy temperature were produced and successfully validated. This paper demonstrates that results obtained with a low-cost UAV system for agricultural applications yielded comparable estimations, if not better, than those obtained by traditional manned airborne sensors.

The AquaCrop model was developed to replace the former FAO I&D Paper 33 procedures for the estimation of crop productivity in relation to water supply and agronomic management in a framework based on current plant physiological and soil water budgeting concepts. This paper presents the software of AquaCrop for which the concepts and underlying principles are described in the companion paper (Steduto et al., 2009). Input consists of weather data, crop characteristics, and soil and management characteristics that define the environment in which the crop will develop. Algorithms and calculation procedures modeling the infiltration of water, the drainage out of the root zone, the canopy and root zone development, the evaporation and transpiration rate, the biomass production, and the yield formation are presented. The mechanisms of crop response to cope with water shortage are described by only a few parameters, making the underlying processes more transparent to the user. AquaCrop is a menu‐driven program with a well‐developed user interface. With the help of graphs which are updated each time step (1 d) during the simulation run, the user can track changes in soil water content, and the corresponding changes in crop development, soil evaporation and transpiration rate, biomass production, and yield development. One can halt the simulation at each time step, to study the effect of changes in water related inputs, making the model particularly suitable for developing deficit irrigation strategies and scenario analysis.