Since the concept of low carbon development (LCD) was adopted at the 1992 Rio de Janeiro Earth Summit, Indonesia has been committed to implementing the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. In 2020, the country issued Presidential Regulation No. 18, which made LCD one of the national priority programs to maintain economic and social through low emission activities and reduce the overexploitation of natural resources. The LCD is a way for the country to overcome the tradeoff between economic growth and environmental degradation. Nevertheless, LCD is a new initiative for Indonesia, so it needs strategic indicators that influence the achievement of development. This paper attempts to integrate macro-regional development indicators that combine each region’s gross domestic product, human development index, and unemployment rate with LCD indicators, including the environmental quality index and g reenhouse gas emissions. The combined indicators were constructed by composite index through the Shannon entropy method, geometric and arithmetic means using the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method. The results show significant differences among provinces concerning to macro-regional indicators once the LCD indicators were incorporated. The results of this analysis could be used by policymakers to evaluate the green development of regions.
Currently, Indonesia has adopted Low Carbon Development (LCD) in its Medium-Term Development Plan (RPJMN) 2020-2024. One of the priority activities is agriculture, which accounts for 12.21% of total greenhouse gas emissions. The agricultural sector is the victim affected by CO2 emissions, such as degradation, shrinkage of agricultural resources, land and water, shifting planting seasons, crop failures, decreased food production due to rising air temperatures, floods, and droughts. Greenhouse gas emissions are predicted to continue to increase along with the increasing demand for food. The purpose of this study is to predict and find an alternative policy framework for low-carbon development in the agricultural sector in Indonesia. This study uses a quantitative and qualitative approach by Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and multicriteria policy (MULTIPOL) analysis. The data were obtained through secondary data in 2014-2018, and the primary data are in-depth interviews, Focus Group Discussions (FGD), and field observations. The results of ANN show that the predictions of provinces that need to adopt low-carbon development in Indonesia are dominated in production centers such as Java Island, so an alternative policy framework using MULTIPOL is needed. Furthermore, this research establishes three scenarios, eight policies, twenty-six actions, and nine evaluative criteria in analyzing the LCD of the agricultural sector. The results indicate that LCD can be conducted by integrating the speed scenario (S2) with a value ranging from 6.3 (policy to increase capacity and quality of human resources) to 18.7 (circular economy). This scenario accommodates policies related to low carbon reduction and agricultural production increase, such as a circular economy, co-benefit adaptation strategies, low carbon technology innovation, and strengthening low carbon networks.
Pembangunan nasional berkelanjutan yang selama ini dilakukan oleh pemerintah tingkat keberhasilannya masih belum dinikmati oleh setiap provinsi di Indonesia, sebagian didominasi di Pulau Jawa. Pembangunan selama ini menggunakan skenario business as usual (BAU) diukur berdasarkan aspek pertumbuhan ekonomi tapi tidak memperhitungkan dampak lingkungan. Permasalahan mulai muncul disaat terdapat ketimpangan antara dimensi ekonomi dengan dampak lingkungan yaitu emisi gas rumah kaca. Penelitian ini mengusulkan pendekatan dalam mengevaluasi pembangunan nasional BAU dengan rendah karbon menggunakan Teknik Rap_withoutLCD berdasarkan Multi Dimensional Scalling (MDS). Objek penelitian pada tanaman padi, data yang dianalisis adalah data sekunder tahun 2014-2018, beberapa literature dan penelitian lain. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan nilai tukar petani, konsumsi beras, produksi padi, penduduk buta huruf, persebaran penduduk, persentase penduduk miskin, percetakan sawah, curah hujan, suhu, tekonologi informasi, pompa air, Rice Milling Unit, penggunaan pupuk organik, peraturan rendah karbon, dan emisi gas rumah kaca merupakan atribut yang sensitif terhadap pembangunan nasional berkelanjutan. Artinya jika atribut tersebut dihilangkan maka akan berdampak pada status keberlanjutan. Penelitian ini menunjukkan hasil evaluasi eksisting pembangunan konsep BAU dengan rendah karbon didominasi antara kurang (less sustainable) dan cukup (quite sustainable) di setiap provinsi sehingga pemerintah perlu menerapkan kebijakan transformasi pembangunan pertanian rendah karbon yang dapat menunjang produktivitas pertanian dan juga pembangunan nasional di Indonesia.
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