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Prediction of disease patterns for communicable diseases with low prevalence rates is difficult because of the random variations inherent in the data Smoothing of prevalence or incidence data prior to the analysis may facilitate these predictions. All of the analyses are based on census tract characterisiics. The disadvantages of this type of data are that the boundaries are arbitraty and lead to some heterogenous tracts. Also, the analyses depend totally on aggregate rather than individual data. The advantage of working with this type of data is its availability for all metropolitan areas. The San Antonio diphtheria epidemic has been previously referred to as an ethnic epidemic. This paper shows that it is even more an epidemic of lower socioeconomic groups. In this region of the country, socioeconomic characteristics are almost indistinguishable.