Background Differentiating between appropriate and inappropriate resource use represents a critical challenge in health services research. The New York University Emergency Department (NYU ED) visit severity algorithm attempts to classify visits to the ED based on diagnosis, but it has not been formally validated. Objective To assess the validity of the NYU algorithm. Research Design: A longitudinal study in a single integrated delivery system (IDS) from January 1999 to December 2001. Subjects 2,257,445 commercial and 261,091 Medicare members of an IDS. Measures ED visits were classified as emergent, non-emergent, or intermediate severity, using the NYU ED algorithm. We examined the relationship between visit-severity and the probability of future hospitalizations and death using a logistic model with a general estimating equation (GEE) approach. Results Among commercially insured subjects, ED visits categorized as emergent were significantly more likely to result in a hospitalization within one-day (OR=3.37, 95% CI: 3.31–3.44) or death within 30-days (OR=2.81, 95% CI: 2.62–3.00) than visits categorized as non-emergent. We found similar results in Medicare patients and in sensitivity analyses using different probability thresholds. ED overuse for non-emergent conditions was not related to socio-economic status or insurance type. Conclusions The evidence presented supports the validity of the NYU ED visit severity algorithm for differentiating ED visits based on need for hospitalization and/or mortality risk; therefore, it can contribute to evidence-based policies aimed at reducing the use of the ED for non-emergencies.

Study Objective Patients on warfarin or clopidogrel are considered at increased risk for traumatic intracranial hemorrhage (tICH) following blunt head trauma. The prevalence of immediate tICH and the cumulative incidence of delayed tICH in these patients, however, are unknown. Methods A prospective, observational study at two trauma centers and four community hospitals enrolled emergency department (ED) patients with blunt head trauma and pre-injury warfarin or clopidogrel use from April 2009 through January 2011. Patients were followed for two weeks. The prevalence of immediate tICH and the cumulative incidence of delayed tICH were calculated from patients who received an initial cranial computed tomography (CT) in the ED. Delayed tICH was defined as tICH within two weeks following an initially normal CT scan and in the absence of repeat head trauma. Results A total of 1,064 patients were enrolled (768 warfarin patients [72.2%] and 296 clopidogrel patients [27.8%]). There were 364 patients [34.2%] from Level 1 or 2 trauma centers and 700 patients [65.8%] from community hospitals. One thousand patients received a cranial CT scan in the ED. Both warfarin and clopidogrel groups had similar demographic and clinical characteristics although concomitant aspirin use was more prevalent among patients on clopidogrel. The prevalence of immediate tICH was higher in patients on clopidogrel (33/276, 12.0%; 95% confidence interval [CI] 8.4-16.4%) than patients on warfarin (37/724, 5.1%; 95%CI 3.6-7.0%), relative risk 2.31 (95%CI 1.48-3.63). Delayed tICH was identified in 4/687 (0.6%; 95%CI 0.2-1.5%) patients on warfarin and 0/243 (0%; 95%CI 0-1.5%) patients on clopidogrel. Conclusion While there may be unmeasured confounders that limit intergroup comparison, patients on clopidogrel have a significantly higher prevalence of immediate tICH compared to patients on warfarin. Delayed tICH is rare and occurred only in patients on warfarin. Discharging patients on anticoagulant or antiplatelet medications from the ED after a normal cranial CT scan is reasonable but appropriate instructions are required as delayed tICH may occur.

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The implementation of TBI prediction rules and provision of risks of ciTBIs by using CDS was associated with modest, safe, but variable decreases in CT use. However, some secular trends were also noted.

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