Nepal's quake-driven landslide hazards
Large earthquakes can trigger dangerous landslides across a wide geographic region. The 2015
M
w
7.8 Gorhka earthquake near Kathmandu, Nepal, was no exception. Kargal
et al.
used remote observations to compile a massive catalog of triggered debris flows. The satellite-based observations came from a rapid response team assisting the disaster relief effort. Schwanghart
et al.
show that Kathmandu escaped the historically catastrophic landslides associated with earthquakes in 1100, 1255, and 1344 C.E. near Nepal's second largest city, Pokhara. These two studies underscore the importance of determining slope stability in mountainous, earthquake-prone regions.
Science
, this issue p.
10.1126/science.aac8353
; see also p.
147
Glaciers in China are primarily located in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and surrounding high mountains. The Chinese Glacier Inventory indicates that there are 46 377 glaciers in western China. Meteorological records indicate that air temperature in western China has risen by 0.2˚C per decade since 1951, and 1998 was the warmest year; precipitation in the region increased by 5–10% per decade from 1953 to 1997. Using remote-sensing and Geographic Information System methods, we have monitored the changes in >5000 glaciers over the past 50 years. We conclude that >80% of glaciers in western China have retreated, losing 4.5% of their combined areal coverage, although some glaciers have advanced. In addition, regional differences characterize glacier changes over the past few decades. For example, glaciers in the central and northwestern TP were relatively stable, while glaciers in the mountains surrounding the TP experienced extensive wastage. Mass-balance variations for some glaciers show accelerated ice shrinkage in the last two decades.
Abstract. Glacier melt is an essential source of freshwater for the arid regions surrounding the Tian Shan. However, the knowledge about glacier volume and mass changes over the last decades is limited. In the present study, glacier area, glacier dynamics and mass changes are investigated for the period ~1975–2007 for Southern Inylchek Glacier (SIG) and Northern Inylchek Glacier (NIG), the largest glacier system in Central Tian Shan separated by the regularly draining Lake Merzbacher. The area of NIG increased by 2.0 ± 0.1 km2 (~1.3%) in the period ~1975–2007. In contrast, SIG has shrunk continuously in all investigated periods since ~1975. Velocities of SIG in the central part of the ablation region reached ~100–120 m a−1 in 2002/2003, which was slightly higher than the average velocity in 2010/2011. The central part of SIG flows mainly towards Lake Merzbacher rather than towards its terminus. The measured velocities at the distal part of the terminus downstream of Lake Merzbacher were below the uncertainty, indicating very low flow with even stagnant parts. Geodetic glacier mass balances have been calculated using multi-temporal digital elevation models from KH-9 Hexagon (representing the year 1975), SRTM3 (1999), ALOS PRISM (2006) and SPOT-5 high-resolution geometrical (HRG) data (2007). In general, a continuous mass loss for both SIG and NIG could be observed between ~1975 and 2007. SIG lost mass at a rate of 0.43 ± 0.10 m w.e. a−1 and NIG at a rate of 0.25 ± 0.10 m w.e. a−1 within the period ~1975–1999. For the period 1999–2007, the highest mass loss of 0.57 ± 0.46 m w.e. a−1 was found for NIG, whilst SIG showed a potential moderate mass loss of 0.28 ± 0.46 m w.e. a−1. Both glaciers showed a small retreat during this period. Between ~1975 and 1999, we identified a thickening at the front of NIG with a maximum surface elevation increase of about 150 m as a consequence of a surge event. In contrast significant thinning (>0.5 m a−1) and comparatively high velocities close to the dam of Lake Merzbacher were observed for SIG, indicating that Lake Merzbacher enhances glacier mass loss.
ABSTRACT. The Tarim river basin, a river system formed by the convergence of nine tributaries, is the most heavily glacierized watershed in arid northwest China. In the basin, there are 11 665 glaciers with a total area of 19 878 km 2 and a volume of 2313 km 3 . Glaciers in the basin play a significant role in the water resource system. It is estimated that they provide about 133 Â 10 8 m 3 of meltwater annually, contributing 39% of the total river runoff. Under the influence of global warming, northwest China has experienced a generally warmer and drier climate since the mid-19th century. However, a so-called 'warm and wet transition' has occurred since the late 1980s, evidenced by an increase in both precipitation and stream discharge in the Xinjiang Autonomous Region and neighboring regions. This paper describes how glaciers in the Tarim river basin have responded to such warming and increased precipitation, and the impact of these glacier changes. We analyzed the variations of more than 3000 glaciers since the 1960s using topographical maps, high-resolution satellite images and aerial photographs of the river basin. Our results indicate that glaciers in the basin have been mostly in retreat in the past 40 years, and ice wastage has significantly influenced water resources in the Tarim river basin. Estimation by a degree-day meltwater model shows the positive anomaly in stream runoff of the Tailan river can be partly attributed to the increase in glacier runoff (amounting to one-third of the stream discharge), and a rough estimation using observed average ablation on the termini of 15 glaciers in China verifies that the mass loss calculated by a glacier area-volume relation is reasonable.
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