Variability at six microsatellite loci was examined among 536 winter flounder Pseudopleuronectes americanus larvae collected from three locations in eastern Long Island Sound shown to be nursery areas for the species. Substantial genetic differences were seen among the putative source populations and thus appeared to be geographically based. These differences were used to characterize the most likely sources of winter flounder larvae entrained at the Millstone Power Station as well as recruitment to juvenile winter flounder collected in the Niantic River. Samples were classified to the most likely geographical source population both by a conditional maximum likelihood method and by a multi-layer feed-forward neural net trained on the differences in microsatellite allele frequencies. The classification of samples by both methods is compared and discussed in the context of winter flounder management. # 2004 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles

This study estimated rates of sand shrimp (Crangon septemspinosa) predation on winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus) eggs and examined the effect of temperature on density-dependent mortality of early-stage flounder. In laboratory experiments, shrimp feeding rates on flounder eggs were positively correlated with temperature and shrimp size. Immunological assays of shrimp stomach contents indicated that 7.2% of shrimp collected from the Niantic River (Connecticut) had flounder eggs in their stomachs. Incidence of egg predation was highest in February (20%) and decreased continuously into early April (1.2%). In a deterministic model simulating predator-induced mortality of flounder eggs during a spawning season, shrimp consumed 0.4%–49.7% of the total flounder spawn. Variations in shrimp population abundance and size structure accounted for the greatest variability in egg mortality. Water temperature during the spawning season presumably alters the population dynamics of early-stage flounder. In a long-term survey, the number of yolk-sac flounder larvae in warm years (≥4.3 °C) was depressed at high egg densities, indicating strong compensatory processes that increased egg mortality and limited the abundance of larvae. Failure of flounder to produce strong year-classes of larvae during warm years, possibly resulting from altered trophic dynamics, may explain the inability of stocks to recover from previous overexploitation.

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