We synthesize insights from current understanding of drought impacts at stand to biogeographic scales, including management options, and we identify challenges to be addressed with new research. Large stand-level shifts underway in western forests already are showing the importance of interactions involving drought, insects, and fire. Diebacks, changes in composition and structure, and shifting range limits are widely observed. In the eastern US, the effects of increasing drought are becoming better understood at the level of individual trees, but this knowledge cannot yet be confidently translated to predictions of changing structure and diversity of forest stands. While eastern forests have not experienced the types of changes seen in western forests in recent decades, they too are vulnerable to drought and could experience significant changes with increased severity, frequency, or duration in drought. Throughout the continental United States, the combination of projected large climate-induced shifts in suitable habitat from modeling studies and limited potential for the rapid migration of tree populations suggests that changing tree and forest biogeography could substantially lag habitat shifts already underway.Forest management practices can partially ameliorate drought impacts through reductions in stand density, selection of drought-tolerant species and genotypes, artificial regeneration, and the development of multi-structured stands. However, silvicultural treatments also could exacerbate drought impacts unless implemented with careful attention to site and stand characteristics. Gaps in our understanding should motivate new research on the effects of interactions involving climate and other species at the stand scale and how interactions and multiple responses are represented in models. This assessment indicates that, without a stronger empirical basis for drought impacts at the stand scale, more complex models may provide limited guidance.

Surprisingly little research has been done to partition the contribution of catastrophic disturbance from that of small-scale individualistic mortality events on riparian large woody debris (LWD) recruitment. This study compared the impact of both processes on recruitment through simulation of several catastrophic disturbances (a spruce beetle outbreak, a moderately intense fire, and a clearcut) and undisturbed (individualistic mortality only) old growth for a small headwater stream in the Intermountain West of the United States. All scenarios progressed through a two-stage process, with the Forest Vegetation Simulator growth and yield model controlling forest dynamics and a postprocessor (CWD, version 1.2) predicting riparian LWD recruitment. Projections indicate that individualisticonly conditions delivered 2.5 m 3 LWD·100 m reach Ϫ1 ·10-yr cycle Ϫ1 ; while the spruce beetle-, fire-, and clearcut-affected stands averaged 2.9, 3.2, and 1.5 m 3 LWD·100 m reach Ϫ1 ·cycle Ϫ1 , respectively. Stands impacted by natural catastrophic disturbance significantly (P Ͻ 0.05) increased cumulative (300 yr) LWD recruitment over the individualistic-only scenario, whereas clear-cutting significantly decreased total delivery. In-stream LWD loads, relatively stable in undisturbed riparian zones, fluctuated sharply under catastrophic disturbance. Peak channel loads associated with natural perturbation occurred ϳ30 yr after the event while debris volumes under clear-cutting immediately declined. The postevent recruitment and in-stream LWD stocks of all disturbance scenarios eventually fell below undisturbed conditions, requiring decades to recover historical volumes. Catastrophic disturbances induced such steep oscillations in riparian LWD load that the systems experiencing frequent largescale perturbations never achieved a long-term steady state, as some have postulated. Because of the inflation in cumulative LWD delivery, it may prove advantageous to encourage (or imitate) some catastrophic disturbance in forests along streams noticeably depauperate of LWD.

Indirect climate effects on tree fecundity that come through variation in size and growth (climate-condition interactions) are not currently part of models used to predict future forests. Trends in species abundances predicted from meta-analyses and species distribution models will be misleading if they depend on the conditions of individuals. Here we find from a synthesis of tree species in North America that climate-condition interactions dominate responses through two pathways, i) effects of growth that depend on climate, and ii) effects of climate that depend on tree size. Because tree fecundity first increases and then declines with size, climate change that stimulates growth promotes a shift of small trees to more fecund sizes, but the opposite can be true for large sizes. Change the depresses growth also affects fecundity. We find a biogeographic divide, with these interactions reducing fecundity in the West and increasing it in the East. Continental-scale responses of these forests are thus driven largely by indirect effects, recommending management for climate change that considers multiple demographic rates.

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Nonlinear crown width regression equations were developed for 24 species common to the upper Lake States of Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Of the species surveyed, 15 produced statistically significant (P < 0.05) local basal area effect coefficients showing a reduction in crown width with increasing stand density. No relation between shade tolerance and crown width was apparent, indicating the species-dependence of this parameter. Using adjusted R2 as a guide, nonlinear crown width models adapted for local basal area (NLCWadj) improved prediction for 20 of 24 species over a model lacking this component (NLCW). The ecological significance of the improvement shown for some species may be minor, but for others the difference was substantial (often 8%). North. J. Appl. For 18(1):22–28.

Surprisingly little research has been done to partition the contribution of catastrophic disturbance from that of small-scale individualistic mortality events on riparian large woody debris (LWD) recruitment. This study compared the impact of both processes on recruitment through simulation of several catastrophic disturbances (a spruce beetle outbreak, a moderately intense fire, and a clearcut) and undisturbed (individualistic mortality only) old growth for a small headwater stream in the Intermountain West of the United States. All scenarios progressed through a two-stage process, with the Forest Vegetation Simulator growth and yield model controlling forest dynamics and a postprocessor (CWD, version 1.2) predicting riparian LWD recruitment. Projections indicate that individualisticonly conditions delivered 2.5 m 3 LWD·100 m reach Ϫ1 ·10-yr cycle Ϫ1 ; while the spruce beetle-, fire-, and clearcut-affected stands averaged 2.9, 3.2, and 1.5 m 3 LWD·100 m reach Ϫ1 ·cycle Ϫ1 , respectively. Stands impacted by natural catastrophic disturbance significantly (P Ͻ 0.05) increased cumulative (300 yr) LWD recruitment over the individualistic-only scenario, whereas clear-cutting significantly decreased total delivery. In-stream LWD loads, relatively stable in undisturbed riparian zones, fluctuated sharply under catastrophic disturbance. Peak channel loads associated with natural perturbation occurred ϳ30 yr after the event while debris volumes under clear-cutting immediately declined. The postevent recruitment and in-stream LWD stocks of all disturbance scenarios eventually fell below undisturbed conditions, requiring decades to recover historical volumes. Catastrophic disturbances induced such steep oscillations in riparian LWD load that the systems experiencing frequent largescale perturbations never achieved a long-term steady state, as some have postulated. Because of the inflation in cumulative LWD delivery, it may prove advantageous to encourage (or imitate) some catastrophic disturbance in forests along streams noticeably depauperate of LWD.

Tree fecundity and recruitment have not yet been quantified at scales needed to anticipate biogeographic shifts in response to climate change. By separating their responses, this study shows coherence across species and communities, offering the strongest support to date that migration is in progress with regional limitations on rates. The southeastern continent emerges as a fecundity hotspot, but it is situated south of population centers where high seed production could contribute to poleward population spread. By contrast, seedling success is highest in the West and North, serving to partially offset limited seed production near poleward frontiers. The evidence of fecundity and recruitment control on tree migration can inform conservation planning for the expected long-term disequilibrium between climate and forest distribution.