Disturbances such as fire, insect outbreaks, and blowdown are important in shaping subalpine forests in the Rocky Mountains, but quantitative studies of their interactions are rare. We investigated the combined effects of past disturbances, current vegetation, and topography on spatial variability of the severity of a fire that burned approximately 4500 ha of subalpine forest during the extreme drought of 2002 in northwestern Colorado. Ordinal logistic regression was used to spatially model fire severity in relation to late 1800s fires, a 1940s spruce beetle outbreak, forest cover type, stand structure, and topography. The late 1800s fires reduced the probability of burning in 2002, and the 1940s beetle outbreak slightly increased the probability of fire, particularly at high severity. Aspen (Populus tremuloides) and lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) stands, which established after the late 1800s fires, were less likely to burn, whereas Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii)-subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) stands were more likely to burn. The highest elevations (Ն3100 m) had the lowest probability of burning, whereas intermediate elevations (2900-3100 m) had an increased probability of burning at high severity. The influences of the late 1800s fires and 1940s beetle outbreak on stand structure and forest cover type may be more important than their direct effects on fuels. The most important predictors determining fire severity were stand structure, forest cover type, the late 1800s fires, and elevation. Although, in other studies, the effects of pre-burn stand conditions and topography declined with increasingly severe fire weather, in the case of the 2002 fire in Colorado, these predictors explained 42% of the variability of fire severity. Thus, these results suggest that pre-burn stand conditions are important influences on burn severity even for fires burning during extreme drought.

Increasing evidence indicates that forest disturbances are changing in response to global change, yet local variability in disturbance remains high. We quantified this considerable variability and analyzed whether recent disturbance episodes around the globe were consistently driven by climate, and if human influence modulates patterns of forest disturbance. We combined remote sensing data on recent (2001–2014) disturbances with in-depth local information for 50 protected landscapes and their surroundings across the temperate biome. Disturbance patterns are highly variable, and shaped by variation in disturbance agents and traits of prevailing tree species. However, high disturbance activity is consistently linked to warmer and drier than average conditions across the globe. Disturbances in protected areas are smaller and more complex in shape compared to their surroundings affected by human land use. This signal disappears in areas with high recent natural disturbance activity, underlining the potential of climate-mediated disturbance to transform forest landscapes.

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This study examines influences of climate variability on spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis) outbreak across northwestern Colorado during the period 1650 2011 CE. Periods of broad-scale outbreak reconstructed using documentary records and tree rings were dated to 1843-1860, 1882-1889, 1931-1957, and 2004-2010. Periods of outbreak were compared with seasonal temperature, precipitation, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), and indices of ocean-atmosphere oscillation that include the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Classification trees showed that outbreaks can be predicted most successfully from above average annual AMO values and above average summer VPD values, indicators of drought across Colorado. Notably, we find that spruce beetle outbreaks appear to be predicted best by interannual to multidecadal variability in drought, not by temperature alone. This finding may imply that spruce beetle outbreaks are triggered by decreases in host tree defenses, which are hypothesized to occur with drought stress. Given the persistence of the AMO, the shift to a positive AMO phase in the late 1990s is likely to promote continued spruce beetle disturbance.

Disturbances are important in creating spatial heterogeneity of vegetation patterns that in turn may affect the spread and severity of subsequent disturbances. Between 1997 and 2002 extensive areas of subalpine forests in northwestern Colorado were affected by a blowdown of trees, bark beetle outbreaks, and salvage logging. Some of these stands were also affected by severe fires in the late 19th century. During a severe drought in 2002, fires affected extensive areas of these subalpine forests. We evaluated and modeled the extent and severity of the 2002 fires in relation to these disturbances that occurred over the five years prior to the fires and in relation to late 19th century stand-replacing fires. Occurrence of disturbances prior to 2002 was reconstructed using a combination of tree-ring methods, aerial photograph interpretation, field surveys, and geographic information systems (GIS). The extent and severity of the 2002 fires were based on the normalized difference burn ratio (NDBR) derived from satellite imagery. GIS and classification trees were used to analyze the effects of prefire conditions on the 2002 fires. Previous disturbance history had a significant influence on the severity of the 2002 fires. Stands that were severely blown down (> 66% trees down) in 1997 burned more severely than other stands, and young (approximately 120 year old) postfire stands burned less severely than older stands. In contrast, prefire disturbances were poor predictors of fire extent, except that young (approximately 120 years old) postfire stands were less extensively burned than older stands. Salvage logging and bark beetle outbreaks that followed the 1997 blowdown (within the blowdown as well as in adjacent forest that was not blown down) did not appear to affect fire extent or severity. Conclusions regarding the influence of the beetle outbreaks on fire extent and severity are limited, however, by spatial and temporal limitations associated with aerial detection surveys of beetle activity. Thus, fire extent in these forests is largely independent of prefire disturbance history and vegetation conditions. In contrast, fire severity, even during extreme fire weather and in conjunction with a multiyear drought, is influenced by prefire stand conditions, including the history of previous disturbances.

Interactions between natural disturbances are widely recognized as important determinants of vegetation patterns in forested landscapes but have only rarely been investigated quantitatively. In a subalpine forest landscape in northwestern Colorado, we quantified spatial associations of fire and spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis) outbreaks over more than a century and developed a multivariate logistic model of probability of occurrence of spruce beetle outbreaks. The study area, an ∼2800 km2 landscape in White River National Forest, was affected by severe widespread fires around 1879 and by a spruce beetle outbreak in the 1940s, which affected most of the forests that were dominated by Picea engelmannii (Engelmann spruce) and Abies lasiocarpa (subalpine fir). The boundaries of the fires ca. 1879 and of the 1940s spruce beetle outbreaks were digitized based on an 1898 vegetation map and modern aerial photograph interpretation, and overlaid in a Geographic Information System. The areas disturbed by the ca. 1879 fires and the 1940s beetle outbreak were also overlaid with 303 fires recorded after 1950 as well as with topographic and forest structural variables. Forests that had burned in 1879 were less affected by the 1940s outbreak than older stands. On the other hand, areas affected by the 1940s spruce beetle outbreak showed no higher susceptibility to subsequent fires. A multivariate logistic model indicated that, although fire history had the greatest effect on stand susceptibility to spruce beetle outbreak, dominance of neighboring stands by spruce as well as elevation were also important predictors of outbreaks. Predictive modeling of spatial interactions between fire and spruce beetle disturbances needs to consider the high degree of variability in the nature of these interactions related to contingencies such as time since last major disturbance, topographic position, and weather during windows of potential interaction. Corresponding Editor: F. W. Davis.

Aim There is increasing research attention being given to the role of interactions among natural disturbances in ecosystem processes. We studied the interactions between fire and spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis Kirkby) disturbances in a Colorado subalpine forest. The central questions of this research were: (1) How does fire history influence stand susceptibility to beetle outbreak? And conversely, (2) How does prior occurrence of a beetle outbreak influence stand susceptibility to subsequent fire? Methods We reconstructed the spatial disturbance history in a c. 4600 ha area by first identifying distinct patches in the landscape on aerial photographs. Then, in the field we determined the disturbance history of each patch by dating stand origin, fire scars, dates of mortality of dead trees, and releases on remnant trees. A geographical information system (GIS) was used to overlay disturbance by fire and spruce beetle. Results and main conclusions  The majority of stands in the study area arose following large, infrequent, severe fires occurring in c. 1700, 1796 and 1880. The study area was also affected by a severe spruce beetle outbreak in the 1940s and a subsequent low‐severity fire. Stands that originated following stand‐replacing fire in the late nineteenth century were less affected by the beetle outbreak than older stands. Following the beetle outbreak, stands less affected by the outbreak were more affected by low‐severity fire than stands more severely affected by the outbreak. The reduced susceptibility to low‐severity fire possibly resulted from increased moisture on the forest floor following beetle outbreak. The landscape mosaic of this subalpine forest was strongly influenced by the interactions between fire and insect disturbances.

Summary1 In 1997, a major windstorm blew down over 10 000 hectares of subalpine forest in Routt National Forest in north-western Colorado. We tested whether fire history and topographic variation, across the landscape, determined subsequent susceptibility to damage from this windstorm. 2 We combined dendrochronological techniques with a geographical information system (GIS) to examine the relationship between the effects of the blowdown and the spatial heterogeneity of the vegetation. We reconstructed the spatial fire history in a c. 4400 ha area by first identifying distinct patches in the landscape on aerial photographs, and then in the field by determining the disturbance history of each patch by dating fire scars, ages of post-fire cohorts and releases of remnant trees. 3 Both topographic position and fire history contribute to susceptibility to wind damage. Stands at higher elevations, on easterly slopes and closer to ridges were most affected. Younger stands (i.e. more recently affected by stand-initiating fires) were less affected particularly in areas affected by low-moderate severity blowdown (< 80% damage). The ecological effects of the very severe 1997 windstorm were mediated by the legacies of fires which occurred several centuries ago. Interactions between natural disturbances, such as fire and blowdown, lead to synergistic effects on forest dynamics, even when disturbance is infrequent.