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This study examines influences of climate variability on spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis) outbreak across northwestern Colorado during the period 1650 2011 CE. Periods of broad-scale outbreak reconstructed using documentary records and tree rings were dated to 1843-1860, 1882-1889, 1931-1957, and 2004-2010. Periods of outbreak were compared with seasonal temperature, precipitation, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), and indices of ocean-atmosphere oscillation that include the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Classification trees showed that outbreaks can be predicted most successfully from above average annual AMO values and above average summer VPD values, indicators of drought across Colorado. Notably, we find that spruce beetle outbreaks appear to be predicted best by interannual to multidecadal variability in drought, not by temperature alone. This finding may imply that spruce beetle outbreaks are triggered by decreases in host tree defenses, which are hypothesized to occur with drought stress. Given the persistence of the AMO, the shift to a positive AMO phase in the late 1990s is likely to promote continued spruce beetle disturbance.

Episodic outbreaks of Dendroctonus rufipennis (Kirby), the spruce bark beetle, have greatly influenced the structure of subalpine forests in northern Colorado. During the 1940s, much of the subalpine zone of northwestern Colorado was severely affected by beetle outbreak; also, tree-ring and photographic evidence suggest that large-scale outbreaks occurred in the 19th century. The present study focused on tree-ring methods to examine the regional extent and synchrony of pre-20th-century beetle outbreaks in northwestern Colorado. Results from examination of both live and dead Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii Parry ex Engelm.) tree rings in nine stands were compared with results of previous tree-ring studies in the same region. Evidence of past canopy disturbance included episodes of tree mortality in conjunction with sustained increases in radial growth rates. We identified regional outbreaks of spruce beetle by synchronous and sustained growth release in trees from disjunct stands. These new tree-ring records, along with previously published records, indicate that severe and widespread canopy disturbances, probably spruce beetle outbreaks, affected northwestern Colorado in 1716-1750, 1827-1845, 1860-1870, and 1940-1960. These results support earlier findings that large-scale outbreaks of spruce beetle have long been an important component of the dynamics of subalpine forests in Colorado.

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