Machine learning approaches for clinical psychology and psychiatry explicitly focus on learning statistical functions from multidimensional data sets to make generalizable predictions about individuals. The goal of this review is to provide an accessible understanding of why this approach is important for future practice given its potential to augment decisions associated with the diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment of people suffering from mental illness using clinical and biological data. To this end, the limitations of current statistical paradigms in mental health research are critiqued, and an introduction is provided to critical machine learning methods used in clinical studies. A selective literature review is then presented aiming to reinforce the usefulness of machine learning methods and provide evidence of their potential. In the context of promising initial results, the current limitations of machine learning approaches are addressed, and considerations for future clinical translation are outlined.

; for the PRONIA Consortium IMPORTANCE Social and occupational impairments contribute to the burden of psychosis and depression. There is a need for risk stratification tools to inform personalized functional-disability preventive strategies for individuals in at-risk and early phases of these illnesses. OBJECTIVE To determine whether predictors associated with social and role functioning can be identified in patients in clinical high-risk (CHR) states for psychosis or with recent-onset depression (ROD) using clinical, imaging-based, and combined machine learning; assess the geographic, transdiagnostic, and prognostic generalizability of machine learning and compare it with human prognostication; and explore sequential prognosis encompassing clinical and combined machine learning. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This multisite naturalistic study followed up patients in CHR states, with ROD, and with recent-onset psychosis, and healthy control participants for 18 months in 7 academic early-recognition services in 5 European countries. Participants were recruited between February 2014 and May 2016, and data were analyzed from April 2017 to January 2018. AIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Performance and generalizability of prognostic models. RESULTS A total of 116 individuals in CHR states (mean [SD] age, 24.0 [5.1] years; 58 [50.0%] female) and 120 patients with ROD (mean [SD] age, 26.1 [6.1] years; 65 [54.2%] female) were followed up for a mean (SD) of 329 (142) days. Machine learning predicted the 1-year social-functioning outcomes with a balanced accuracy of 76.9% of patients in CHR states and 66.2% of patients with ROD using clinical baseline data. Balanced accuracy in models using structural neuroimaging was 76.2% in patients in CHR states and 65.0% in patients with ROD, and in combined models, it was 82.7% for CHR states and 70.3% for ROD. Lower functioning before study entry was a transdiagnostic predictor. Medial prefrontal and temporo-parietooccipital gray matter volume (GMV) reductions and cerebellar and dorsolateral prefrontal GMV increments had predictive value in the CHR group; reduced mediotemporal and increased prefrontal-perisylvian GMV had predictive value in patients with ROD. Poor prognoses were associated with increased risk of psychotic, depressive, and anxiety disorders at follow-up in patients in the CHR state but not ones with ROD. Machine learning outperformed expert prognostication. Adding neuroimaging machine learning to clinical machine learning provided a 1.9-fold increase of prognostic certainty in uncertain cases of patients in CHR states, and a 10.5-fold increase of prognostic certainty for patients with ROD. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Precision medicine tools could augment effective therapeutic strategies aiming at the prevention of social functioning impairments in patients with CHR states or with ROD.

Neurobiological heterogeneity in schizophrenia is poorly understood and confounds current analyses. We investigated neuroanatomical subtypes in a multi-institutional multi-ethnic cohort, using novel semi-supervised machine learning methods designed to discover patterns associated with disease rather than normal anatomical variation. Structural MRI and clinical measures in established schizophrenia (n = 307) and healthy controls (n = 364) were analysed across three sites of PHENOM (Psychosis Heterogeneity Evaluated via Dimensional Neuroimaging) consortium. Regional volumetric measures of grey matter, white matter, and CSF were used to identify distinct and reproducible neuroanatomical subtypes of schizophrenia. Two distinct neuroanatomical subtypes were found. Subtype 1 showed widespread lower grey matter volumes, most prominent in thalamus, nucleus accumbens, medial temporal, medial prefrontal/frontal and insular cortices. Subtype 2 showed increased volume in the basal ganglia and internal capsule, and otherwise normal brain volumes. Grey matter volume correlated negatively with illness duration in Subtype 1 (r = −0.201, P = 0.016) but not in Subtype 2 (r = −0.045, P = 0.652), potentially indicating different underlying neuropathological processes. The subtypes did not differ in age (t = −1.603, df = 305, P = 0.109), sex (chi-square = 0.013, df = 1, P = 0.910), illness duration (t = −0.167, df = 277, P = 0.868), antipsychotic dose (t = −0.439, df = 210, P = 0.521), age of illness onset (t = −1.355, df = 277, P = 0.177), positive symptoms (t = 0.249, df = 289, P = 0.803), negative symptoms (t = 0.151, df = 289, P = 0.879), or antipsychotic type (chi-square = 6.670, df = 3, P = 0.083). Subtype 1 had lower educational attainment than Subtype 2 (chi-square = 6.389, df = 2, P = 0.041). In conclusion, we discovered two distinct and highly reproducible neuroanatomical subtypes. Subtype 1 displayed widespread volume reduction correlating with illness duration, and worse premorbid functioning. Subtype 2 had normal and stable anatomy, except for larger basal ganglia and internal capsule, not explained by antipsychotic dose. These subtypes challenge the notion that brain volume loss is a general feature of schizophrenia and suggest differential aetiologies. They can facilitate strategies for clinical trial enrichment and stratification, and precision diagnostics.

For many years, psychiatrists have tried to understand factors involved in response to medications or psychotherapies, in order to personalize their treatment choices. There is now a broad and growing interest in the idea that we can develop models to personalize treatment decisions using new statistical approaches from the field of machine learning and applying them to larger volumes of data. In this pursuit, there has been a paradigm shift away from experimental studies to confirm or refute specific hypotheses towards a focus on the overall explanatory power of a predictive model when tested on new, unseen datasets. In this paper, we review key studies using machine learning to predict treatment outcomes in psychiatry, ranging from medications and psychotherapies to digital interventions and neurobiological treatments. Next, we focus on some new sources of data that are being used for the development of predictive models based on machine learning, such as electronic health records, smartphone and social media data, and on the potential utility of data from genetics, electrophysiology, neuroimaging and cognitive testing. Finally, we discuss how far the field has come towards implementing prediction tools in real‐world clinical practice. Relatively few retrospective studies to‐date include appropriate external validation procedures, and there are even fewer prospective studies testing the clinical feasibility and effectiveness of predictive models. Applications of machine learning in psychiatry face some of the same ethical challenges posed by these techniques in other areas of medicine or computer science, which we discuss here. In short, machine learning is a nascent but important approach to improve the effectiveness of mental health care, and several prospective clinical studies suggest that it may be working already.

This prognostic study evaluates whether psychosis transition can be predicted in patients with clinical high-risk syndromes or recent-onset depression by multimodal machine learning that optimally integrates clinical and neurocognitive data, structural magnetic resonance imaging, and polygenic risk scores for schizophrenia.