Summary
Background
Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980–2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories.
Methods
We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package—a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce age-sex-specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections.
Findings
Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87–2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91–1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79–3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63–2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8–39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets.
Interpretation
Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people...
Background: Evidence shows that earlier access to Anti-retroviral Therapy helps to increase survival of children by delaying the progression to AIDS. However its long-term effect on mortality has remained unanswered in Ethiopia especially in the study area.
Introduction. In regional state of the study area, HIV (Human Immunodeficiency Virus) prevalence is 2.2% and opportunistic infections (OIs) occurred in 88.9% of pre-ART (Antiretroviral Therapy) people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA). Even though OIs are prevalent in the study area, duration of staying free from acquiring rehappening opportunistic infections and its determinant factors are not studied. Method. The study was conducted in randomly selected 341 adult Pre-ART PLWHA who are included in chronic HIV care. OI free duration was estimated using the actuarial life table and Kaplan Meier survival. Cox proportional-hazard model was used to calculate hazard rate. Result. OIs were rediagnosed in three quarters (75.37%) participants. In each week the probability of getting new recurrence OI was about 15.04 per 1000 person weeks. The median duration of not acquiring OI recurrence was 54 weeks. After adjustment, variables associated with recurrence were employment status, marital status, exposure for prophylaxis and adherence to it, CD4 count, and hemoglobin value. Conclusion. Giving prophylaxis and counseling to adhere it, rise in CD4 and hemoglobin level, and enhancing job opportunities should be given for PLWHA who are on chronic HIV care while continuing the care.
Background: Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy improves time to death and recurrence of any opportunistic infections in peoples living with HIV. But little is known about its effect on time to increase WHO clinical stage. Thus, this study was aimed at assessing time to increase WHO clinical stage and associated factors. Method: Retrospective cohort study was used and the required sample size was 464. Study participants were selected randomly from the list of adult people living with HIV attending the public health facilities for ART. Univariate analysis was used to describe patients' baseline and follow up characteristics. Kaplan-Meier survival and log rank test were used to estimate survival and compare survival curves respectively. Cox proportional-hazard regression model was used to calculate hazard rate and to determine independent predictors of time to increase WHO clinical stage. Result: A total of 464 patients (232 in each cohort) contribute for 898.12 person years of follow up. The overall incidence rate of increased WHO clinical stage was 16.6 per 100 person years of follow up and the incidence of increased WHO clinical stage was 38.5 per 100 person year and 3.8 per 100 person year of follow up in ART and HAART cohorts respectively. Being on Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy and taking prophylaxis at baseline were the identified predictors' that prevent increment of WHO clinical stage. In contrary being widowed and single marital status, substance use, rural residence and being in age category 45 years and above were independent predictors for increment of WHO clinical stage. Conclusion: Increment of WHO clinical stage was higher in pre ART cohorts. Special consideration should be given for those who are widowed, substance users and aged 45 years and above.
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