JEL Code: C11, C15, C53, E31, E37.This paper proposes a generalized Phillips curve in order to forecast Brazilian inflation over the 2003:M1-2013:M10 period. To this end, we employ the Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) method, which allows for both model evolution and time-varying parameters. The procedure mainly consists in state-space representation and by Kalman filter estimation. Overall, the dynamic specifications deliver good inflation predictions for all the forecast horizons considered, underscoring the importance of time-varying features for forecasting exercises. As to the usefulness of the predictors on explaining the Brazilian inflation, there are evidences that the short-and long-term Phillips curve relationship may be rejected for Brazil while short-and medium-term exchange rate pass-through apparently has been decreasing in the last years.
O presente estudo propõe uma curva de Phillips generalizada para prever a infla-
O presente artigo circunscreve sua problemática na relação entre campo estético e os processos de subjetivação; de forma mais específica, objetiva analisar os possíveis efeitos estilísticos do discurso psicanalítico na subjetividade, tanto daquele que o pronuncia, como de quem o escuta. Para tanto, toma a análise, discurso do analista sistematizado por Lacan, como estratégia para compreender a questão do estilo em psicanálise. Desvelando a estrutura do discurso analítico, entendido como discurso do analista, é possível identificar que, pela via do estilo, emerge a possibilidade de inscrição do objeto a, como marca do real na ordem simbólica regida pela falta.
This chapter presents a system level design and conception of a System-on-a-Chip (SoC) for the execution of cognitive agents. The computational architecture of this SoC will be presented using the cognitive model of the concurrent autonomous agent (CAA) as a reference. This cognitive model comprises three levels that run concurrently, namely the reactive level, the instinctive level and the cognitive level. The reactive level executes a fast perception-action cycle. The instinctive level receives perceptions from and sends the active behavior to the reactive level, and using a Knowledge Based System (KBS) executes plans by selecting reactive behaviors. The cognitive level receives symbolic information from the instinctive level to update its logical world model, used for planning and sends new local goals to instinctive level. Thus, this work proposes a novel SoC whose architecture fits the computational demands of the aforementioned cognitive model, allowing for fast, energy-efficient, embedded intelligent applications.
ResumoO objetivo do presente trabalho é estimar a NAIRU (Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment) para o Brasil, utilizando um modelo bivariado de componentes não observados conforme proposto por Chan, Koop e Potter (2015), que difere da literatura existente por considerar passeios aleatórios restritos para as variáveis não observadas. As variáveis latentes do modelo são a NAIRU, tendência inflacionária, persistência da inflação e inclinação da Curva de Phillips. Os resultados obtidos apontam para uma tendência de queda da NAIRU, que tem sido revertida no período recente. Além disso, o hiato do desemprego foi predominantemente positivo até 2010, fato consistente com a diminuição da inflação e tem sido predominantemente negativo no período recente, o que implica em aumento da inflação. Tal comportamento é consistente com a trajetória observada da inflação no período. Dessa forma, o presente trabalho contribui com a literatura empírica a respeito da NAIRU no Brasil, fornecendo novas estimativas para o período recente. Dada a natureza não observável dessa variável, o aumento da literatura pode aumentar o grau de confiabilidade dessas estimativas.
Palavras-Chave
NAIRU. Curva de Phillips. Modelo tempo-variante.
AbstractThis paper aims to estimate the Brazilian NAIRU (Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment) using a bivariate unobserved components model for inflation and unemployment as proposed by Chan, Koop and Potter (2015). This model differs from the existing literature by considering bounded random walks for the latent variables. The latent variables of model are NAIRU, trend inflation, inflation persistence and the slope of the Phillips Curve. The results indicate a declining trend for the NAIRU, which has been reversed in recent period. In addition, the unemployment gap was predominantly positive until 2010, which is consistent with the decrease in inflation and has been predominantly negative in recent years, wich implies increasing inflation. This is consistent with the observed behavior of inflation in the period. Thus, this paper contributes
The Concurrent Autonomous Agent (CAA) is a cognitive architecture composed by three levels that run concurrently: the reactive level, that executes the perception-action cycle using reactive behaviours; the instinctive level, that coordinates plan execution; and the cognitive level, responsible for planning. In this work a hardware architecture dedicated to the execution of the CAA in the omnidirectional robot AxéBot is presented. The work corrects mistakes from previous works e conceives a complete embedded platform for cognitive robotics. The results shows the hardware development and presents an experiment that validates platform performance.
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to evaluate whether the effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation has changed over time in Latin America.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors use a stochastic volatility in mean (SVM) model with time-varying parameters (TVP) as proposed by Chan (2017).
Findings
Considering inflation series for the last two decades, we report evidences of high uncertainty from 1996 to early 2000s. Moreover, despite being positive throughout the sample, the overall relationship between inflation uncertainty and inflation has changed over the years in Latin America, underscoring the importance of our time-varying specification.
Practical/implication
There are evidences of a greater volatile inflation behavior in the beginning of the sample period in comparison to the last few years. Overall, the considered Latin American economies seem to have endured relatively well the external adverse shocks from the 2008 global financial crisis.
Originality/value
The use of an SVM model with TVP in order to assess the effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation is new to the Latin America literature.
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