In this article, we explore the capability of speculative fiction to predict future realized technologies. We review a large set of speculative technologies introduced in speculative fiction to determine if the technologies were subsequently realized. Additionally, we explore the time between the speculated introduction and actual realization. Our dataset for analysis is built from the ‘Technovelgy’ database of speculative technologies. A realization assessment methodology is created that includes detailed rubrics to rate and quantify the predictability or realizability of speculative technologies. Three independent raters perform realization assessments for each entry. An inter-rater agreement analysis is carried out to validate the rating method. Based on the dataset of 3095 speculated technologies, 45% are labeled as ‘realized’ by at least one rater. A moderate overall agreement with a Fleiss’ Kappa of 0.57 is reached by all raters. The average time to realization of realized technologies is approximately 45 years with a standard deviation of approximately 34 years. We observe patterns in the realization of speculative technologies and analyze the underlying reasons preventing the technologies from realization. We conclude that speculative fiction predicts future technologies to such a degree that the introduction of speculative technology can be used as an input to designer decision-making.
At a time in which labour markets are becoming increasingly globalised and precarisation processes are altering young people's working and living conditions, a whole network of public and private agencies are developing different entrepreneurship programmes as the main mechanism to deal with youth exclusion and unemployment. Grounded in two ongoing research projects conducted in Europe and Australia, this article proposes a preliminary, thought-provoking engagement with the concept of global grammars of enterprise to examine how the truth regimes are framed and articulated in these networks. We argue that this concept enables us to identify, examine and analyse the shifting, unstable, but always strategic power relations between the governmental discourses on entrepreneurship and the enterprising behaviour and dispositions of persons and groups, and the particular «declensions» and local «translations» of the ideas of entrepreneurship that organisations and young people perform within a process of globalised precarisation.
El objetivo de este artículo es conocer las claves que conforman el emprendimiento como un programa gubernamental reactivado durante la última crisis económica y profundizar en los efectos que está generando en la juventud española. La hipótesis de partida es que, en las políticas de empleo recomendadas por la Comisión Europea e impulsadas por el gobierno español, el emprendimiento juvenil ha adquirido centralidad como una solución de emergencia al desempleo y la precariedad laboral que sufren los jóvenes, pero sin embargo tiene consecuencias en los regímenes de subjetivación que convoca. Para ello, se analiza este programa gubernamental y se propone el concepto de gramática del emprendimiento para dar cuenta de cómo agentes de diferentes ámbitos -político, educativo, financiero, mediático- convocan una moral, una disposición del ánimo y un tipo de subjetividad emprendedora que resulta paradójica, cuando no irrealizable. A partir de los relatos de jóvenes involucrados en el emprendimiento, extraídos de un trabajo de campo cualitativo, se revisan y proponen algunas figuras analíticas —emperdedor, emprendeudor, emprecario— que condensan los malestares y contradicciones que surgen a partir de esta gramática.
Este es un artículo Open Access bajo la licencia CC BY-NC-ND.
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