While it is often recognised that agricultural technology adoption decisions are intertwined and best characterised by multivariate models, typical approaches to examining adoption and impacts of agricultural technology have focused on single technology adoption choice and ignored interdependence among technologies. We examine farm-and market-level impacts of multiple technology adoption choices using comprehensive household survey data collected in 2010/11 and 2012/13 in Ethiopia. Economic surplus analysis combined with panel data switching endogenous regression models are used to compute the supply shift parameter (K-shift parameter), while at the same time controlling for the endogeneity inherent in agricultural technology adoption among farmers. We find that our improved technology set choices have significant impacts on farm-level maize yield and maize production costs, where the greatest effect appears to be generated when various Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 69, No. 1, 2018, 76-95 doi: 10.1111/1477 Ó 2017 The Agricultural Economics Society technologies are combined. The change in maize yield and production costs results in an average 26.4% cost reduction per kilogram of maize output (the K-shift parameter). This increases the producer and consumer surpluses by US$ 140 and US$ 105 million per annum, respectively. These changes in economic surplus help to reduce the number of poor people by an estimated 788 thousand per year. We conclude that deliberate extension efforts and other policies that encourage integration of technologies are important for maize technologies to yield their full potential at both farm and market levels.

Public agricultural research has been conducted in Africa for decades. While many studies have examined its aggregate impacts, few have investigated how it affects the poor. This paper helps fill this gap by applying a new procedure to explore the ex post impacts of improved maize varieties on poverty in rural Ethiopia. Plot-level yield and cost changes due to adoption are first estimated using instrumental variable and marginal treatment effect techniques where possible heterogeneity is carefully accounted for. A backward derivation procedure is then developed to link treatment effect estimates with an economic surplus model to identify the counterfactual household income that would have existed without improved maize varieties. Poverty impacts are finally estimated by exploiting the differences between observed and counterfactual income distributions. Improved maize varieties have led to a 0.8-1.3 percentage drop of poverty headcount ratio and relative reductions of poverty depth and severity. However, poor producers benefit the least from adoption due to the smallness of their land holdings.JEL classifications: I32, O33, Q16, Q18

We identify critical stocks-to-use ratios (SURs) for major grains and for an index of total calories from these grains. The latter appears to be a promising indicator of vulnerability to large price spikes when the current price shows no cause for concern. More generally, our results suggest that stocks data, though no doubt unreliable, can be valuable complements to price data as indicators of vulnerability to shortages and price spikes.

Adoption of improved crop varieties can lead to multiple benefits to farm households, including increased productivity, incomes, and food consumption. However, possible impacts of adoption on child nutrition outcomes are rarely explored in the literature. This article helps bridge this gap through an impact assessment of the adoption of improved maize varieties (IMVs) on child nutrition outcomes using a recent household survey from rural Ethiopia. The conceptual linkage between IMV adoption and child nutrition is first established using an agricultural household model. Instrumental variable estimation suggests the overall impacts of adoption on child height-for-age and weight-for-age z-scores to be positive and significant. Quantile instrumental variable regressions further reveal that such impacts are largest among children with poorest nutrition outcomes. Finally, by combining a decomposition procedure with system of equations estimation, it is found that the increase in own-produced maize consumption is the major channel through which IMV adoption affects child nutrition.JEL classifications: I15, O33, Q16, Q18

This study investigates the possible mechanisms through which modern food markets may affect Vietnamese households’ dietary diversity and diet quality using data from a survey of 1,700 urban households with seven‐day food recall. We calculate Household Dietary Diversity Scores to measure dietary diversity, and use consumption frequencies of micronutrients (vitamin A and heme iron) and a macronutrient (protein) to create a household measure of diet quality. We estimate a Poisson regression model using a two‐step control function approach to address the potential endogeneity of our key explanatory variable, modern market food expenditure shares. Higher modern market food expenditure share is positively and significantly associated with consumption frequency of heme iron, but there are no significant associations with consumption of vitamin A and protein. We further explore indirect linkages between food expenditure shares and dietary diversity, which in turn, may be linked to household diet quality. Results from a system of equations show that the food expenditure share variable has no significant relationship with dietary diversity, but dietary diversity is positively and significantly associated with diet quality. Our results indicate that alone, policies which encourage ‘food market modernisation’ are not enough to improve diet quality in urban Vietnam.

Overuse of chemical fertilizer has led to severe land degradation and environmental pollution in China. Switching to organic fertilizer may improve soil quality and reduce pollution, which is meaningful to the sustainable development of Chinese agriculture. This study examines how farmers’ perceptions and risk preference affect their organic fertilizer investment using a representative rural household survey from Guangxi, a major agricultural region in China. Tobit and double-hurdle models are used to empirically test their impacts on organic fertilizer adoption and investment. An ordinary least squares model is used to regress chemical fertilizer use on the same set of explanatory variables to compare and contrast farmers’ different fertilizer investment behaviors. It is found that both organic fertilizer perceptions and risk attitude significantly affect organic fertilizer investment. Perceived yield-increasing and quality-improving effects encourage organic fertilizer investment, while perceived cost increases discourage it. Moreover, risk-averse farmers are more likely to invest in organic fertilizers. Most of the perceptions affecting organic fertilizer investment have an opposite impact on chemical fertilizer investment, which suggests substitutability between organic and chemical fertilizer. Interventions that aim to improve farmers’ perceptions of organic fertilizer and illustrate its risk-reduction effect could be effective in promoting organic fertilizer use, which can help achieve China’s sustainable development of agriculture.

HighlightsWe study whether land rental discourages improved crop variety adoption.We show in theory that cash-renters are indifferent, but sharecroppers are encouraged.Empirical results from Ethiopian maize farmers support the above hypotheses.Results imply improvements in land rental markets can improve farmers’ welfare.

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