Sea-level rise (SLR) is predicted to elevate water depths above coral reefs and to increase coastal wave exposure as ecological degradation limits vertical reef growth, but projections lack data on interactions between local rates of reef growth and sea level rise. Here we calculate the vertical growth potential of more than 200 tropical western Atlantic and Indian Ocean reefs, and compare these against recent and projected rates of SLR under different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Although many reefs retain accretion rates close to recent SLR trends, few will have the capacity to track SLR projections under RCP4.5 scenarios without sustained ecological recovery, and under RCP8.5 scenarios most reefs are predicted to experience mean water depth increases of more than 0.5 m by 2100. Coral cover strongly predicts reef capacity to track SLR, but threshold cover levels that will be necessary to prevent submergence are well above those observed on most reefs. Urgent action is thus needed to mitigate climate, sea-level and future ecological changes in order to limit the magnitude of future reef submergence.

Ocean acidification describes the progressive, global reduction in seawater pH that is currently underway because of the accelerating oceanic uptake of atmospheric CO 2. Acidification is expected to reduce coral reef calcification and increase reef dissolution. Inorganic cementation in reefs describes the precipitation of CaCO3 that acts to bind framework components and occlude porosity. Little is known about the effects of ocean acidification on reef cementation and whether changes in cementation rates will affect reef resistance to erosion. Coral reefs of the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP) are poorly developed and subject to rapid bioerosion. Upwelling processes mix cool, subthermocline waters with elevated pCO 2 (the partial pressure of CO 2) and nutrients into the surface layers throughout the ETP. Concerns about ocean acidification have led to the suggestion that this region of naturally low pH waters may serve as a model of coral reef development in a high-CO 2 world. We analyzed seawater chemistry and reef framework samples from multiple reef sites in the ETP and found that a low carbonate saturation state (⍀) and trace abundances of cement are characteristic of these reefs. These low cement abundances may be a factor in the high bioerosion rates previously reported for ETP reefs, although elevated nutrients in upwelled waters may also be limiting cementation and/or stimulating bioerosion. ETP reefs represent a real-world example of coral reef growth in low-⍀ waters that provide insights into how the biological-geological interface of coral reef ecosystems will change in a high-CO 2 world. coral reef persistence ͉ inorganic cementation ͉ ocean acidification ͉ climate change A tmospheric CO 2 is increasing exponentially because of the unregulated combustion of fossil fuels (1). Approximately one-third of all of the CO 2 released into the atmosphere since the industrial revolution has been absorbed by the oceans (2). This ongoing uptake of atmospheric CO 2 is causing a drop in seawater pH at the global scale, causing an acidification of the oceans (3-5).Ocean acidification results in a decrease in seawater [CO 3 2Ϫ ] and, consequently, a decrease in the saturation state (⍀) of carbonate minerals {⍀ ϭ [Ca 2ϩ ][CO 3 2Ϫ ]/KЈ sp , where KЈ sp is the apparent solubility product of a carbonate mineral (e.g., aragonite, calcite)}. Acidification is expected to reduce coral reef calcification and increase reef dissolution, and the relative rates of change will likely be related to the partial pressure of CO 2 (pCO 2 ) in surface seawater,

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Coral reefs and the services they provide are seriously threatened by ocean acidification and climate change impacts like coral bleaching. Here, we present updated global projections for these key threats to coral reefs based on ensembles of IPCC AR5 climate models using the new Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) experiments. For all tropical reef locations, we project absolute and percentage changes in aragonite saturation state (Ωarag) for the period between 2006 and the onset of annual severe bleaching (thermal stress >8 degree heating weeks); a point at which it is difficult to believe reefs can persist as we know them. Severe annual bleaching is projected to start 10-15 years later at high-latitude reefs than for reefs in low latitudes under RCP8.5. In these 10-15 years, Ωarag keeps declining and thus any benefits for high-latitude reefs of later onset of annual bleaching may be negated by the effects of acidification. There are no long-term refugia from the effects of both acidification and bleaching. Of all reef locations, 90% are projected to experience severe bleaching annually by 2055. Furthermore, 5% declines in calcification are projected for all reef locations by 2034 under RCP8.5, assuming a 15% decline in calcification per unit of Ωarag. Drastic emissions cuts, such as those represented by RCP6.0, result in an average year for the onset of annual severe bleaching that is ~20 years later (2062 vs. 2044). However, global emissions are tracking above the current worst-case scenario devised by the scientific community, as has happened in previous generations of emission scenarios. The projections here for conditions on coral reefs are dire, but provide the most up-to-date assessment of what the changing climate and ocean acidification mean for the persistence of coral reefs.

BackgroundCoral reefs are facing increasing pressure from natural and anthropogenic stressors that have already caused significant worldwide declines. In January 2010, coral reefs of Florida, United States, were impacted by an extreme cold-water anomaly that exposed corals to temperatures well below their reported thresholds (16°C), causing rapid coral mortality unprecedented in spatial extent and severity.Methodology/Principal FindingsReef surveys were conducted from Martin County to the Lower Florida Keys within weeks of the anomaly. The impacts recorded were catastrophic and exceeded those of any previous disturbances in the region. Coral mortality patterns were directly correlated to in-situ and satellite-derived cold-temperature metrics. These impacts rival, in spatial extent and intensity, the impacts of the well-publicized warm-water bleaching events around the globe. The mean percent coral mortality recorded for all species and subregions was 11.5% in the 2010 winter, compared to 0.5% recorded in the previous five summers, including years like 2005 where warm-water bleaching was prevalent. Highest mean mortality (15%–39%) was documented for inshore habitats where temperatures were <11°C for prolonged periods. Increases in mortality from previous years were significant for 21 of 25 coral species, and were 1–2 orders of magnitude higher for most species.Conclusions/SignificanceThe cold-water anomaly of January 2010 caused the worst coral mortality on record for the Florida Reef Tract, highlighting the potential catastrophic impacts that unusual but extreme climatic events can have on the persistence of coral reefs. Moreover, habitats and species most severely affected were those found in high-coral cover, inshore, shallow reef habitats previously considered the “oases” of the region, having escaped declining patterns observed for more offshore habitats. Thus, the 2010 cold-water anomaly not only caused widespread coral mortality but also reversed prior resistance and resilience patterns that will take decades to recover.

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Ocean acidification (OA) is expected to reduce the calcification rates of marine organisms, yet we have little understanding of how OA will manifest within dynamic, real-world systems. Natural CO2, alkalinity, and salinity gradients can significantly alter local carbonate chemistry, and thereby create a range of susceptibility for different ecosystems to OA. As such, there is a need to characterize this natural variability of seawater carbonate chemistry, especially within coastal ecosystems. Since 2009, carbonate chemistry data have been collected on the Florida Reef Tract (FRT). During periods of heightened productivity, there is a net uptake of total CO2 (TCO2) which increases aragonite saturation state (Ωarag) values on inshore patch reefs of the upper FRT. These waters can exhibit greater Ωarag than what has been modeled for the tropical surface ocean during preindustrial times, with mean (± std. error) Ωarag-values in spring = 4.69 (±0.101). Conversely, Ωarag-values on offshore reefs generally represent oceanic carbonate chemistries consistent with present day tropical surface ocean conditions. This gradient is opposite from what has been reported for other reef environments. We hypothesize this pattern is caused by the photosynthetic uptake of TCO2 mainly by seagrasses and, to a lesser extent, macroalgae in the inshore waters of the FRT. These inshore reef habitats are therefore potential acidification refugia that are defined not only in a spatial sense, but also in time; coinciding with seasonal productivity dynamics. Coral reefs located within or immediately downstream of seagrass beds may find refuge from OA.

Rising anthropogenic CO 2 in the atmosphere is accompanied by an increase in oceanic CO 2 and a concomitant decline in seawater pH (ref. 1). This phenomenon, known as ocean acidification (OA), has been experimentally shown to impact the biology and ecology of numerous animals and plants 2 , most notably those that precipitate calcium carbonate skeletons, such as reef-building corals 3 . Volcanically acidified water at Maug, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI) is equivalent to near-future predictions for what coral reef ecosystems will experience worldwide due to OA. We provide the first chemical and ecological assessment of this unique site and show that acidification-related stress significantly influences the abundance and diversity of coral reef taxa, leading to the often-predicted shift from a coral to an algae-dominated state 4,5 . This study provides field evidence that acidification can lead to macroalgae dominance on reefs.Coral reefs contain the highest concentration of biodiversity in the marine realm, with abundant flora and fauna that form the backbone of complex and dynamic ecosystems 6 . From an anthropocentric standpoint, coral reefs provide valuable goods and services, supporting fisheries and tourism, and protect shorelines from storms 7 . Recently, widespread coral mortality has led to the flattening of reef frameworks and the loss of essential habitat 4 . This trend will be accelerated by ocean acidification (OA), as calcification is impaired, and dissolution is accelerated 8,9 . Furthermore, experimental evidence suggests that OA could enhance the growth 10 and competitive ability of fleshy macroalgae 11 . This OA-induced shift in the competitive balance between corals and algae could exacerbate direct effects of OA on calcifying reef species 12 and lead to ecosystem shifts favouring non-reef-forming algae over coral 4,5 . Understanding the individual responses of taxa to OA, as well as alteration of multi-species assemblages, is therefore critical to predicting ecosystem persistence and managing reef health in an era of global change.At present, much of what is known concerning the impacts of OA on coral reef biota has been laboratory-based experimental work focused on the responses of select taxa 2 . This has been expanded to mesocosm-based studies, allowing manipulation of groups of organisms and investigation of community responses 13 .Although these multi-species experimental studies are vital, they cannot recreate the variability (physical, chemical, biological) of real-world reef systems 14 . In an effort to overcome the limitations of laboratory studies, real-world low-saturation-state (Ω) sites have been investigated. In the eastern Pacific, nutrient and CO 2 -enriched upwelled waters impact coral calcification and the precipitation of carbonate cements, influencing the distribution of reefs 15 . In Mexico, freshwater springs depress Ω, influencing coral calcification and species distributions 16 . In Palau, restricted circulation and biological activity contribute to ...