A study was conducted using maize samples collected from different agroecological zones of Kenya (n = 471) and Tanzania (n = 100) during the 2013 maize harvest season to estimate a relationship between aflatoxin B1 concentration and occurrence with weather conditions during the growing season. The toxins were analysed by the ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (UPLC-MS/MS) method. Aflatoxin B1 incidence ranged between 0–100% of samples in different regions with an average value of 29.4% and aflatoxin concentrations of up to 6075 µg/kg recorded in one sample. Several regression techniques were explored. Random forests achieved the highest overall accuracy of 80%, while the accuracy of a logistic regression model was 65%. Low rainfall occurring during the early stage of the maize plant maturing combined with high temperatures leading up to full maturity provide warning signs of aflatoxin contamination. Risk maps for the two countries for the 2013 season were generated using both random forests and logistic regression models.
Abstract:The present study is an attempt to develop empirical evidence of transaction costs that rice farmers incur in production and other factors that affect farmers' demand for seed and estimating the proportion of costs accounted for by transaction costs due to quality seed in the formal and informal sectors, and analyze how these costs affect sourcing decision. An agricultural household model was developed from the study area. To test the model, information was collected in a survey of 387 households. There is now empirical evidence that transaction cost in rice seed acquisition in Tanzanian agriculture is an added cost to the farmer in the process of purchasing seed. Descriptive analysis shows that about 18% of the total seed cost is accounted for transaction cost, which is 2% of the total variable cost in farmers' rice farming. Econometric model was fitted to the household data to determine the factors hindering farmers to use purchased quality seed. Factors that were significant in influencing transaction cost include information search, seed source, farmers' seed arrangements, trust, and distance from farmers' homestead to the seed source, location and age of the farmer. We recommend that, policy amendments inclined towards reduction of the transaction costs can improve the profitability of the rice enterprise by increasing the demand for inputs.
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