Determining of the effects of the concentration appearing in banking sector on financial fragility is extremely importance. In the theory, this relationship discusses within the frame of "competition-stability" and "competition-fragility". The aim of this study is to determine which variables financial fragility in banking sector affects, and to present short-run and long-run effects of these variables and the effect of concentration on financial fragility with reference to the example of Turkey over the period of 2007:01-2014:09. In this regard, it is taken advantage of Pearson correlation matrix, panel classical regression equations and Holtz-Eakin causality analysis. It is infered from the casuality analysis performed that there is two-way interaction between concentration and financial fragility in Turksih banking sector.
This study analyzes the short-run and long-run effects of interaction between fiscal and monetary policies on stock market performance in four emerging Asian economies, which are China, India, Indonesia, and Malaysia, by using ARDL model. The study covers the period of 2003:Q1-2020:Q1. The findings from this study show monetary and fiscal policies play an important role in determining stock market returns. Also, the results theoretically support Richardian neutrality hypothesis for China and Indonesia, Keynesian positive effect hypothesis for India, and classical crowding out effect hypothesis for Malaysia, and interest channel of monetary transmission mechanism only for China.
In this study, the time-varying dynamic relationships among real exchange rate, average real oil price and food inflation is investigated in Turkey during the period of 2006:1-2021:12. For this reason, TVP-VAR models are applied. The findings from this study revealed that the pass-through effect of real exchange rate on food inflation increases rapidly during the COVID-19 pandemic, and this effect reaches the highest level in October 2021 in which the fluctuations in exchange rate occured. Besides, it is detected that raises in average oil prices significantly enhance food inflation since the vaccination proccess, starting in early 2021, has caused increases in production and demand.
Bu çalışmada, Türkiye ekonomisinde 2000Q1-2018Q2 döneminde reel efektif döviz kuru riskinin belirlenerek, söz konusu riski ortaya çıkaran makroekonomik değişkenlerin etkileri analiz edilmiştir. EGARCH ve EKK yöntemlerinin kullanıldığı çalışmanın sonucunda elde edilen analiz bulgularına göre, reel efektif döviz kurunda meydana gelen şokların etkisinin yaklaşık 272 gün sürdüğü ve negatif şokların reel efektif döviz kuru oynaklığı üzerinde pozitif şoklara göre daha etkili olduğu görülmüştür. Ayrıca, Türkiye'de döviz kuru riskini portföy yatırımları, cari açık ve merkez bankası rezervleri pozitif etkilerken; doğrudan yabancı yatırımların istatistiki olarak anlamlı bir etkisi saptanmamıştır.
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